Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
I'm pretty exhausted, and we have a very active week ahead, but we need to grade the two systems that impacted CT over the previous weekend. Let's get right to it, starting with the Sunday-Monday event.
I'm pretty exhausted, and we have a very active week ahead, but we need to grade the two systems that impacted CT over the previous weekend. Let's get right to it, starting with the Sunday-Monday event.
Above: the verification map from the Sunday-Monday winter storm. These use the NWS observations and the locations are approximate.
Timing
Well, starting from the top, timing was definitely tricky. We said that light to moderate snow would break out from SW to NE, and that it would arrive between 6-9am. That was spot on. We predicted that there would be two parts of the storm, and the original expectation was that the second part would begin around 2-3pm.
We adjusted later in the day based on the data, but we don't get points for any new information after we post the final forecast. Part two started in earnest between 5-6pm. The snow was heaviest between 5-10pm, and accumulating snow did end in the predawn hours, though snow did continue until about 8-9am. We lose a little points there. While we did miss the start of part two, the rest of the forecast was very good.
Grade: B+
Snow & Ice Accumulation
If you read through the comments during the day, you'd think that the storm ended in the afternoon. There was a lot of angst about snow totals. So much so that even I was a bit worried. Living in central CT, I went to bed well below what would've been an acceptable miss, but wouldn't you know, the storm was not over. As expected.
Looking at the map above, there are a few takeaways. First, I'm very glad I did not go with a broad 4-8" zone. Phew.
Second, while there were certainly spots that ended below the forecast, most were right where we thought they would be. Windsor looks like the big "loser" with under two inches of snow and one follower reporting virtually nothing. In hindsight, I suppose pulling the 2-4" zone further east would have worked, but given the data we had at the time, I don't think that would have been prudent. This was a good map, despite some spots being lower than the forecast. That said, I don't like central CT ending where it did.
This is a classic case of WAIT UNTIL THE STORM IS ACTUALLY OVER BEFORE CALLING BUST.
Grade: B+
Wind & Power Outages
This was fairly easy. We had some wetter snow that made everything picturesque, but it wasn't enough to cause issues. No wind, no outages.
Grade: A
Overall Impact
The forecast called moderate to high impact on the roads during the more snowy parts of the day, and lesser impact during the lull due to temperatures. That was accurate. Monday started slick but ended up fine, and we expected a moderate impact event, which seemed accurate overall.
Grade: A
Final Grade
For all of the worry in the comments yesterday, the forecast was pretty dang good. We love to see it. Let the storm finish first, folks.
Final Grade: B+
On to the next one.
Timing
Well, starting from the top, timing was definitely tricky. We said that light to moderate snow would break out from SW to NE, and that it would arrive between 6-9am. That was spot on. We predicted that there would be two parts of the storm, and the original expectation was that the second part would begin around 2-3pm.
We adjusted later in the day based on the data, but we don't get points for any new information after we post the final forecast. Part two started in earnest between 5-6pm. The snow was heaviest between 5-10pm, and accumulating snow did end in the predawn hours, though snow did continue until about 8-9am. We lose a little points there. While we did miss the start of part two, the rest of the forecast was very good.
Grade: B+
Snow & Ice Accumulation
If you read through the comments during the day, you'd think that the storm ended in the afternoon. There was a lot of angst about snow totals. So much so that even I was a bit worried. Living in central CT, I went to bed well below what would've been an acceptable miss, but wouldn't you know, the storm was not over. As expected.
Looking at the map above, there are a few takeaways. First, I'm very glad I did not go with a broad 4-8" zone. Phew.
Second, while there were certainly spots that ended below the forecast, most were right where we thought they would be. Windsor looks like the big "loser" with under two inches of snow and one follower reporting virtually nothing. In hindsight, I suppose pulling the 2-4" zone further east would have worked, but given the data we had at the time, I don't think that would have been prudent. This was a good map, despite some spots being lower than the forecast. That said, I don't like central CT ending where it did.
This is a classic case of WAIT UNTIL THE STORM IS ACTUALLY OVER BEFORE CALLING BUST.
Grade: B+
Wind & Power Outages
This was fairly easy. We had some wetter snow that made everything picturesque, but it wasn't enough to cause issues. No wind, no outages.
Grade: A
Overall Impact
The forecast called moderate to high impact on the roads during the more snowy parts of the day, and lesser impact during the lull due to temperatures. That was accurate. Monday started slick but ended up fine, and we expected a moderate impact event, which seemed accurate overall.
Grade: A
Final Grade
For all of the worry in the comments yesterday, the forecast was pretty dang good. We love to see it. Let the storm finish first, folks.
Final Grade: B+
On to the next one.
Above: the verification map for the Saturday event.
Timing
For this one, we were generally right. Snow did break out between 2-6am, and it took a while for precipitation to get to eastern CT, but my goodness. SE CT needed to wait an eternity for precipitation to start, and by waiting so long they ended up torching with some areas near 40 degrees during the storm. That's not good, because the timing impacted the forecast.
We had the timing of the two batches covered, but missing the timing in eastern and SE CT was not acceptable.
Grade: C
Snow & Ice Accumulation
In the 2-5" zone we expected things to be all snow. That was right. If anything, the 2-5" zone could have been pulled to far north central CT, and upped to 3-6". So overall, not the best. The snow overperformed expectations.
In the 1-3" zone we did well, with the exception of the aforementioned north central CT area. This area remained all snow despite the lull, with light non-accumulating snow.
The C-2" zone was the trickiest. While snow did fall in much of the zone, there wasn't even a coating in probably 1/3 to half of the zone. Even when the floor is as low as you can go, not getting anything is bad. It was a very interesting distribution, with part of the state overperforming and another part of the state underperforming.
Grade: C
Wind & Power Outages
It would have been nice to grade this, since this was easy and we nailed it. But I said we wouldn't grade it here for that reason. Let's not have a grade inflation scandal, here.
Overall Impact
Fortunately, the best part of the forecast was judging the overall impact. It was more impactful in NW CT, somewhat impactful in central and SW CT, and low impact in the C-2 zone.
Grade: A
Final Grade
Overall, this was pretty disappointing. The more visible event doing better helps ease the sting, but missing the timing in SE CT and both over and under forecasting snow in the same storm is not where we want to be.
Final Grade: C+
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Timing
For this one, we were generally right. Snow did break out between 2-6am, and it took a while for precipitation to get to eastern CT, but my goodness. SE CT needed to wait an eternity for precipitation to start, and by waiting so long they ended up torching with some areas near 40 degrees during the storm. That's not good, because the timing impacted the forecast.
We had the timing of the two batches covered, but missing the timing in eastern and SE CT was not acceptable.
Grade: C
Snow & Ice Accumulation
In the 2-5" zone we expected things to be all snow. That was right. If anything, the 2-5" zone could have been pulled to far north central CT, and upped to 3-6". So overall, not the best. The snow overperformed expectations.
In the 1-3" zone we did well, with the exception of the aforementioned north central CT area. This area remained all snow despite the lull, with light non-accumulating snow.
The C-2" zone was the trickiest. While snow did fall in much of the zone, there wasn't even a coating in probably 1/3 to half of the zone. Even when the floor is as low as you can go, not getting anything is bad. It was a very interesting distribution, with part of the state overperforming and another part of the state underperforming.
Grade: C
Wind & Power Outages
It would have been nice to grade this, since this was easy and we nailed it. But I said we wouldn't grade it here for that reason. Let's not have a grade inflation scandal, here.
Overall Impact
Fortunately, the best part of the forecast was judging the overall impact. It was more impactful in NW CT, somewhat impactful in central and SW CT, and low impact in the C-2 zone.
Grade: A
Final Grade
Overall, this was pretty disappointing. The more visible event doing better helps ease the sting, but missing the timing in SE CT and both over and under forecasting snow in the same storm is not where we want to be.
Final Grade: C+
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
