Good evening and happy Veterans Day from Southern Connecticut Weather!
There hasn't been much to write about the last few months. After a historically wet pattern that dated back to last year, from late August through now we have been historically dry. This has led to what amounts to a flash drought, with all of CT now in moderate drought conditions and the state continuing to battle dozens of brush fires because of the warm, dry, and breezy pattern.
The warmth has also been incredible. So far, Hartford is 8.5 degrees above normal in November. Bridgeport is 5.0 degrees above normal.
After rain last night and another warm day today, we are starting to see cracks in this incredibly persistent pattern. It will be a gradual shift away from what we've seen, but we are now seeing much more seasonable temperatures (though still probably above normal overall) and additional rain chances.
There hasn't been much to write about the last few months. After a historically wet pattern that dated back to last year, from late August through now we have been historically dry. This has led to what amounts to a flash drought, with all of CT now in moderate drought conditions and the state continuing to battle dozens of brush fires because of the warm, dry, and breezy pattern.
The warmth has also been incredible. So far, Hartford is 8.5 degrees above normal in November. Bridgeport is 5.0 degrees above normal.
After rain last night and another warm day today, we are starting to see cracks in this incredibly persistent pattern. It will be a gradual shift away from what we've seen, but we are now seeing much more seasonable temperatures (though still probably above normal overall) and additional rain chances.
Above: the latest analysis of rainfall the last 90 days. We've gone months without significant rainfall, with a few minor rainfall days mixed in. During this time, we have also been much warmer than normal.
Tuesday
Just a quick note on climatology for this time of the month.
By November 12, the average high/low temperature in Hartford is 53/34. In Bridgeport it is 55/39. As a result, this time of year low 60s is warmer than normal but not overwhelmingly so in our warmer climate. Mid 40s would be colder than normal but still in that seasonable range. By Thanksgiving, which this year is on November 28, the average high/low in Hartford is 47/29 and in Bridgeport it is 49/35.
That's a helpful level set as we go from a pattern that brought us two 80 degree days in November and three days below freezing (at BDL) to something that more resembles a normal November.
Tuesday we start moving back to normal, with highs likely to be in the low to mid 50s. Lows look a bit colder than normal, so there will be more freeze chances, even though for the vast majority of us the growing season has ended. It will be sunny and dry with a bit of a breeze, so once again we have Red Flag Warnings for high fire risk. These days will remain with us until we get more significant rainfall.
Wednesday-Friday
The middle to end of the week looks colder than normal for once! Highs will be in the mid to upper 40s for most, so slightly below normal, and nighttime lows should get just about everyone into the 20s and low 30s. Wednesday looks more sunny than Thursday, as a weak system tries to pass to our southwest. Friday we are likely to be warming up just a touch, but still near normal for November with highs in the low to mid 50s.
Tuesday
Just a quick note on climatology for this time of the month.
By November 12, the average high/low temperature in Hartford is 53/34. In Bridgeport it is 55/39. As a result, this time of year low 60s is warmer than normal but not overwhelmingly so in our warmer climate. Mid 40s would be colder than normal but still in that seasonable range. By Thanksgiving, which this year is on November 28, the average high/low in Hartford is 47/29 and in Bridgeport it is 49/35.
That's a helpful level set as we go from a pattern that brought us two 80 degree days in November and three days below freezing (at BDL) to something that more resembles a normal November.
Tuesday we start moving back to normal, with highs likely to be in the low to mid 50s. Lows look a bit colder than normal, so there will be more freeze chances, even though for the vast majority of us the growing season has ended. It will be sunny and dry with a bit of a breeze, so once again we have Red Flag Warnings for high fire risk. These days will remain with us until we get more significant rainfall.
Wednesday-Friday
The middle to end of the week looks colder than normal for once! Highs will be in the mid to upper 40s for most, so slightly below normal, and nighttime lows should get just about everyone into the 20s and low 30s. Wednesday looks more sunny than Thursday, as a weak system tries to pass to our southwest. Friday we are likely to be warming up just a touch, but still near normal for November with highs in the low to mid 50s.
Above: the EPS (European Ensemble) showing colder than normal temperatures through the rest of the week on balance. Nothing absurdly cold, but a lot more seasonable, especially with regard to daytime highs. Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.
Saturday-Monday
This period will bring our next chance of rain, but the signal is far from strong. The European model and its ensembles have a strong offshore low that retrogrades into the region, bringing snow showers to northern New England and occasional rain showers for much of New England during the forecast period (and beyond). The GFS is much more dry, and even has a storm pass to our north on Monday bringing us rain from a different source. At this time I lean toward some sort of compromise, but again, the signal is mixed and far from strong.
Temperatures are likely to remain seasonable and in the 50s but will start edging above normal. Expect partly to mostly cloudy conditions even if the rain doesn't materialize.
Below are the GFS and Euro respectively in their depictions of the weekend and early next week. While the signal is messy, one thing I like seeing is more rain chances showing up as the upper level pattern begins to shift. This was nonexistent even in fantasy range not that long ago.
GFS
Saturday-Monday
This period will bring our next chance of rain, but the signal is far from strong. The European model and its ensembles have a strong offshore low that retrogrades into the region, bringing snow showers to northern New England and occasional rain showers for much of New England during the forecast period (and beyond). The GFS is much more dry, and even has a storm pass to our north on Monday bringing us rain from a different source. At this time I lean toward some sort of compromise, but again, the signal is mixed and far from strong.
Temperatures are likely to remain seasonable and in the 50s but will start edging above normal. Expect partly to mostly cloudy conditions even if the rain doesn't materialize.
Below are the GFS and Euro respectively in their depictions of the weekend and early next week. While the signal is messy, one thing I like seeing is more rain chances showing up as the upper level pattern begins to shift. This was nonexistent even in fantasy range not that long ago.
GFS
Euro
The Dailies
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, cooler, and breezy. Highs in the low to mid 50s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cool. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers late. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 20%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy early with a chance of rain showers. Then partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 30%.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 40%.
As we move past the middle of the month, we see a shift in the upper level pattern. That may allow some moisture from a possible offshore tropical system (yes, it's still hurricane season and after a historically quiet period it actually got historically active--note the trend) and the overall pattern may bring us our first real cold of the season for late in the month. At least part of Thanksgiving week could be chilly. We will start diving into writing our winter forecast in the next couple of weeks. Stay tuned.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, cooler, and breezy. Highs in the low to mid 50s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cool. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers late. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 20%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy early with a chance of rain showers. Then partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 30%.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 40%.
As we move past the middle of the month, we see a shift in the upper level pattern. That may allow some moisture from a possible offshore tropical system (yes, it's still hurricane season and after a historically quiet period it actually got historically active--note the trend) and the overall pattern may bring us our first real cold of the season for late in the month. At least part of Thanksgiving week could be chilly. We will start diving into writing our winter forecast in the next couple of weeks. Stay tuned.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
