Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather!
I actually wrote this late last night, but it was too late to post.
After another wet Saturday, we hope everyone had a happy Father's Day! In keeping with the incredibly persistent pattern, our wet Saturday was replaced with a decent Sunday. At the midpoint of the month, a consistent summer pattern is yet to reveal itself. At BDL (Hartford) temperatures are right around normal, with a +0.4 degree departure. At Bridgeport, its dead on for normal with a 0.0 degree departure!
Half the days have been below normal. We've had plenty of cloudy days, but we actually haven't had much rain. Both stations are below normal to date with June rainfall. At BDL, there has only been one clear day this month officially.
After some hints, we finally have some real indications that the pattern is changing toward a real summer pattern. We're in transition this week, and while it's still too far ahead the following week could bring even more significant heat. For now though, let's look at the week ahead.
I actually wrote this late last night, but it was too late to post.
After another wet Saturday, we hope everyone had a happy Father's Day! In keeping with the incredibly persistent pattern, our wet Saturday was replaced with a decent Sunday. At the midpoint of the month, a consistent summer pattern is yet to reveal itself. At BDL (Hartford) temperatures are right around normal, with a +0.4 degree departure. At Bridgeport, its dead on for normal with a 0.0 degree departure!
Half the days have been below normal. We've had plenty of cloudy days, but we actually haven't had much rain. Both stations are below normal to date with June rainfall. At BDL, there has only been one clear day this month officially.
After some hints, we finally have some real indications that the pattern is changing toward a real summer pattern. We're in transition this week, and while it's still too far ahead the following week could bring even more significant heat. For now though, let's look at the week ahead.
Above: the 12z European Ensemble (EPS) showing the 500mb pattern through the week. Note how the latter part of the week brings a ridge over the eastern part of the country. This will usher in our summer pattern.
Monday-Tuesday
The start of the week is unsettled but far from a washout, as a decaying high pressure system loosens its grip on our region. Monday doesn't look too bad and should be mostly dry. I'm not expecting anything more than isolated to scattered showers at worst. Temperatures will rise a bit compared to Sunday, but highs will still remain cooler than normal. This time of year the average high is 80 at Hartford and 78 at Bridgeport, with average temperatures rising steadily as we move into astronomical summer.
Tuesday will bring more clouds and a greater chance of showers. Once again, I'm not expecting a washout, but scattered to widespread showers are possible, especially later in the day and evening. With mostly cloudy conditions, high temperatures also remain below normal.
Wednesday-Friday
Temperatures jump on Wednesday as ridging begins to build in. Wednesday will bring a chance of pop up showers and thunderstorms, but unlike early week, we should look at these like standard summer fare. It will feel like summer, with a flip to more humidity as well.
Thursday looks like them most active day of the week. There is a good signal for heat as the ridge continues to build, and the day is looking hazy, hot, and humid with inland temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. In addition, we will see a weak cold front move into the region. This will trigger the potential for thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe. It doesn't encompass our region, but the SPC has 15% odds of severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic at this range, which is very unusual. This is something we'll be watching closely.
In the wake of the front on Thursday, temperatures and humidity should come down some on Friday. Because this is a weak front in a broader pattern of ridging, it looks like there won't be troughing nosing into CT as we head into the weekend...
Monday-Tuesday
The start of the week is unsettled but far from a washout, as a decaying high pressure system loosens its grip on our region. Monday doesn't look too bad and should be mostly dry. I'm not expecting anything more than isolated to scattered showers at worst. Temperatures will rise a bit compared to Sunday, but highs will still remain cooler than normal. This time of year the average high is 80 at Hartford and 78 at Bridgeport, with average temperatures rising steadily as we move into astronomical summer.
Tuesday will bring more clouds and a greater chance of showers. Once again, I'm not expecting a washout, but scattered to widespread showers are possible, especially later in the day and evening. With mostly cloudy conditions, high temperatures also remain below normal.
Wednesday-Friday
Temperatures jump on Wednesday as ridging begins to build in. Wednesday will bring a chance of pop up showers and thunderstorms, but unlike early week, we should look at these like standard summer fare. It will feel like summer, with a flip to more humidity as well.
Thursday looks like them most active day of the week. There is a good signal for heat as the ridge continues to build, and the day is looking hazy, hot, and humid with inland temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. In addition, we will see a weak cold front move into the region. This will trigger the potential for thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe. It doesn't encompass our region, but the SPC has 15% odds of severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic at this range, which is very unusual. This is something we'll be watching closely.
In the wake of the front on Thursday, temperatures and humidity should come down some on Friday. Because this is a weak front in a broader pattern of ridging, it looks like there won't be troughing nosing into CT as we head into the weekend...
Above: the 18z Euro showing chances of showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday. Note how Thursday keeps the strongest storms to our south. That is something we will be watching closely.
Saturday-Sunday
Finally, we head into a Saturday without me putting significant rain chances attached to the forecast! Our gradual pattern change opens the door for ridging to continue to dominate. This would mean that we finally have a dry weekend. We still need to watch for a chance of the usual summertime pop ups, but for now, I feel good about the weekend with temperatures that are lower than Thursday, but still in the low to mid 80s--good stuff for this time of year. Summer is likely to start on time this year.
The Dailies
Monday: Partly cloudy with a chance of isolated showers. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 20%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with showers. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 50%.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with more warmth and humidity. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 20%.
Thursday: Hazy, hot, and humid with a chance of thunderstorms. Some storms could be strong to severe. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of storms 40%.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Sunday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of showers 30%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Saturday-Sunday
Finally, we head into a Saturday without me putting significant rain chances attached to the forecast! Our gradual pattern change opens the door for ridging to continue to dominate. This would mean that we finally have a dry weekend. We still need to watch for a chance of the usual summertime pop ups, but for now, I feel good about the weekend with temperatures that are lower than Thursday, but still in the low to mid 80s--good stuff for this time of year. Summer is likely to start on time this year.
The Dailies
Monday: Partly cloudy with a chance of isolated showers. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 20%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with showers. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 50%.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with more warmth and humidity. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 20%.
Thursday: Hazy, hot, and humid with a chance of thunderstorms. Some storms could be strong to severe. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of storms 40%.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Sunday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of showers 30%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
