Good morning from SCW!
The big (grinch) rainstorm that brought much of the state between 1.5-4" of rain (with the exception of poor SE CT, who missed out on big rainfall amounts) and record high temperatures on the first official day of Winter has departed, leaving behind a few lingering showers this morning.
Temperatures are dropping quickly. In fact, my personal weather station has recorded an 8 degree drop in the last hour or so. That will be the theme of the day. We will see gradual clearing, with temperatures dropping as colder air pushes into the state on a northwesterly breeze.
The big (grinch) rainstorm that brought much of the state between 1.5-4" of rain (with the exception of poor SE CT, who missed out on big rainfall amounts) and record high temperatures on the first official day of Winter has departed, leaving behind a few lingering showers this morning.
Temperatures are dropping quickly. In fact, my personal weather station has recorded an 8 degree drop in the last hour or so. That will be the theme of the day. We will see gradual clearing, with temperatures dropping as colder air pushes into the state on a northwesterly breeze.
Data from my personal weather station here in East Hartford. The red line is temperature and the green line is the dew point. It's not every day you see such a sharp temperature drop!
The rest of the day looks fine for activities and shopping. I'd have the umbrella handy for the morning, but overall today will be dry and breezy. Tonight we start to get back to seasonable temperatures, so bundle up if you're out and about during the overnight hours.
Sunday
Sunday looks beautiful. Temperatures will be seasonable and skies look to be mostly clear during the early portion of the day. I think the breeze we see today will also back off a bit, making it a great day for family activities and last minute Christmas shopping.
As the day progresses however, clouds will increase ahead of our next system...
The Christmas (Eve) Miracle (Late Sunday into Monday)
I jokingly call it that, but in a pattern that has been hostile to snow lovers, it's quite something that after a huge grinch storm we are now talking about snowfall on Christmas Eve.
The guidance that I pointed to three days ago has slowly but steadily begun pointing to a weak system tracking underneath Connecticut. With cold air in place, that means the potential for snow statewide has increased. Here's why:
The rest of the day looks fine for activities and shopping. I'd have the umbrella handy for the morning, but overall today will be dry and breezy. Tonight we start to get back to seasonable temperatures, so bundle up if you're out and about during the overnight hours.
Sunday
Sunday looks beautiful. Temperatures will be seasonable and skies look to be mostly clear during the early portion of the day. I think the breeze we see today will also back off a bit, making it a great day for family activities and last minute Christmas shopping.
As the day progresses however, clouds will increase ahead of our next system...
The Christmas (Eve) Miracle (Late Sunday into Monday)
I jokingly call it that, but in a pattern that has been hostile to snow lovers, it's quite something that after a huge grinch storm we are now talking about snowfall on Christmas Eve.
The guidance that I pointed to three days ago has slowly but steadily begun pointing to a weak system tracking underneath Connecticut. With cold air in place, that means the potential for snow statewide has increased. Here's why:
Above we have the latest NAM depiction of the upper level evolution over the next two days. Note the energy sliding out over Virginia--that's our event. In the days before, that energy was much weaker and further north, making it difficult for anything to really happen for us at the surface. We've seen more "dig" in recent models and if you have cold air around with a low pushing underneath the state at this time of year, snow is going to be possible.
One more interesting feature to note is the energy sliding down over the Great Lakes at the same time. That hangs back a bit later in the day on Christmas Eve, and that could be a sign of some lingering precipitation during the day. We'll see if that materializes and where it sets up.
Below is the result at the surface. Light snow looks to break out late on Sunday. Snow could fall at a light to maybe even brief moderate clip during the overnight hours into early Monday. That's the main energy sliding underneath the state. If you notice however, during the afternoon a bit of an inverted trough tries to take shape over part of the state as some energy hangs back. We need to watch that closely as it could extend our period of snow well into Christmas Eve day.
One more interesting feature to note is the energy sliding down over the Great Lakes at the same time. That hangs back a bit later in the day on Christmas Eve, and that could be a sign of some lingering precipitation during the day. We'll see if that materializes and where it sets up.
Below is the result at the surface. Light snow looks to break out late on Sunday. Snow could fall at a light to maybe even brief moderate clip during the overnight hours into early Monday. That's the main energy sliding underneath the state. If you notice however, during the afternoon a bit of an inverted trough tries to take shape over part of the state as some energy hangs back. We need to watch that closely as it could extend our period of snow well into Christmas Eve day.
In summary:
Finally, I'd be remiss if I didn't show at least some of the European model depiction. It has been all over this potential from the beginning, and it shows that period of moderate snow I alluded to earlier in this post. This is just one hour, but the Euro has been fairly consistent showing a brief period of moderate snow.
- Guidance is honing in on a period of light snow late Sunday night into Monday morning.
- This is expected to be a light event, but I want to hold off on locking in snow amounts for now to see what the guidance does during the day.
- Right now, I can see as little as a coating (especially near the shoreline) to a couple inches in the lucky spots.
- Some lingering snow is possible during the day on Christmas Eve, especially if an inverted trough sets up over the state. That part of the forecast is much more uncertain and may favor eastern areas of the state if at all.
- Road conditions may be impacted if this trends toward a widespread couple inches for the state.
Finally, I'd be remiss if I didn't show at least some of the European model depiction. It has been all over this potential from the beginning, and it shows that period of moderate snow I alluded to earlier in this post. This is just one hour, but the Euro has been fairly consistent showing a brief period of moderate snow.
I will be back with updates as necessary, but for now, we're just tracking potential. Stay tuned.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading and trusting SCW.
-DB
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading and trusting SCW.
-DB
