Disc: At least for now, it appears the intense heat will wind down and yield to a more stormy, but still warm and humid pattern, with most temperatures in the means, still averaging at or above normal, but nothing crazy like we have seen.
Currently: High pressure over VA and NC is dominating our weather for now. This high, however, was on its way out. A strong cold front near Chicago, and multiple prefrontal troughs ahead of it will spell lots of rain for the state tomorrow. Depending on whether or not we get any sun, we could also see a few stronger thunderstorms, but the main threat appears to be heavy rain. Precipitable waters are nearly off the charts for tomorrow. Although it will not be raining every second of the day, when it does rain, it could come down very heavily at times, as the atmosphere rings itself out.
Tonight: Another warm and muggy night. There is no real trigger for any storms until maybe after 3 AM in the far SW sections. Eastern areas will have to wait until late morning. Although given the warmth and moisture in the air, a stray thunderstorm could occur at any time earlier. As for low temperatures, look for very warm lows, in the low to mid 70s.
Tomorrow: Showers and thunderstorms will be occurring throughout the day. A Flash Flood Watch has been posted for the southern half of the state, where the most rain is expected to occur. Further north,, some sun may poke through, and this could allow any storms to be stronger, with gusty winds. Either way, very heavy rain will be possible with some cells. Temperatures could be very tricky, for a couple of reasons. First, some breaks of sun could be possible at any time, allowing temperatures to rise. In addition, the core of the thunderstorms will be winding down around noon in far western areas to late afternoon in far eastern areas. If the rain ends quickly and the sun comes out, temperatures may be able to spike up a few degrees. The NAM guidance is slightly warmer than other guidance and looks about right. It should be noted that if the rain is more prevalent, I may bust high by several degrees. For now, I'll go with highs generally in the 80 to 85 degree range.
Tomorrow Night/Saturday: Behind the cold front, cooler and much drier air will filter in. Go outside, take a deep breath and enjoy the refreshing air! With low dew points, enjoy high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s!
Long Term: Sunday and beyond- Other than high pressure gradually translating offshore and the weather gradually turning warmer and more humid, there won't be much to talk about during this time frame until maybe Thursday. It should be noted that although it will be hot and humid, it will not be as oppressive as what we have just seen. High temperatures should be 85 to 90 on Sunday, with low levels of humidity, then near 90 on Monday and Tuesday, with moderate levels of humidity, mid 80s for Wednesday and 80 to 85 on Thursday. By Thursday, the weather picture becomes a bit more complicated. It is possible that high pressure near Nova Scotia sets up in just the correct position to bring in Atlantic Moisture, with showers and thunderstorms, as an onshore flow does battle with a Bermuda high. However, that is too far out to really be trying to pinpoint anything at this point.
The long range looks like a battle royale could be setting up between the Bermuda ridge and frontal system(s) that try to progress east and then hit a skidding halt as they get beaten up by the ridge. Therefore, there may be a day or two of relatively cool and dry weather, along with a day or two of intense heat, but for the most part most days in the long range should feature "Warm and humid with showers and thunderstorms".
Now, let's take a look at some of the weather systems affecting our area in graphical format. First, let's look at the frontal system poised to cross the area tomorrow. Notice that most of the northeast is engulfed in rain at this hour, noon tomorrow, but look at the hole from far northern CT up into Eastern Mass. This will be the area the sun should come out and frontal thunderstorms should coincide with daytime heating to produce a threat for stronger thunderstorms.
Currently: High pressure over VA and NC is dominating our weather for now. This high, however, was on its way out. A strong cold front near Chicago, and multiple prefrontal troughs ahead of it will spell lots of rain for the state tomorrow. Depending on whether or not we get any sun, we could also see a few stronger thunderstorms, but the main threat appears to be heavy rain. Precipitable waters are nearly off the charts for tomorrow. Although it will not be raining every second of the day, when it does rain, it could come down very heavily at times, as the atmosphere rings itself out.
Tonight: Another warm and muggy night. There is no real trigger for any storms until maybe after 3 AM in the far SW sections. Eastern areas will have to wait until late morning. Although given the warmth and moisture in the air, a stray thunderstorm could occur at any time earlier. As for low temperatures, look for very warm lows, in the low to mid 70s.
Tomorrow: Showers and thunderstorms will be occurring throughout the day. A Flash Flood Watch has been posted for the southern half of the state, where the most rain is expected to occur. Further north,, some sun may poke through, and this could allow any storms to be stronger, with gusty winds. Either way, very heavy rain will be possible with some cells. Temperatures could be very tricky, for a couple of reasons. First, some breaks of sun could be possible at any time, allowing temperatures to rise. In addition, the core of the thunderstorms will be winding down around noon in far western areas to late afternoon in far eastern areas. If the rain ends quickly and the sun comes out, temperatures may be able to spike up a few degrees. The NAM guidance is slightly warmer than other guidance and looks about right. It should be noted that if the rain is more prevalent, I may bust high by several degrees. For now, I'll go with highs generally in the 80 to 85 degree range.
Tomorrow Night/Saturday: Behind the cold front, cooler and much drier air will filter in. Go outside, take a deep breath and enjoy the refreshing air! With low dew points, enjoy high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s!
Long Term: Sunday and beyond- Other than high pressure gradually translating offshore and the weather gradually turning warmer and more humid, there won't be much to talk about during this time frame until maybe Thursday. It should be noted that although it will be hot and humid, it will not be as oppressive as what we have just seen. High temperatures should be 85 to 90 on Sunday, with low levels of humidity, then near 90 on Monday and Tuesday, with moderate levels of humidity, mid 80s for Wednesday and 80 to 85 on Thursday. By Thursday, the weather picture becomes a bit more complicated. It is possible that high pressure near Nova Scotia sets up in just the correct position to bring in Atlantic Moisture, with showers and thunderstorms, as an onshore flow does battle with a Bermuda high. However, that is too far out to really be trying to pinpoint anything at this point.
The long range looks like a battle royale could be setting up between the Bermuda ridge and frontal system(s) that try to progress east and then hit a skidding halt as they get beaten up by the ridge. Therefore, there may be a day or two of relatively cool and dry weather, along with a day or two of intense heat, but for the most part most days in the long range should feature "Warm and humid with showers and thunderstorms".
Now, let's take a look at some of the weather systems affecting our area in graphical format. First, let's look at the frontal system poised to cross the area tomorrow. Notice that most of the northeast is engulfed in rain at this hour, noon tomorrow, but look at the hole from far northern CT up into Eastern Mass. This will be the area the sun should come out and frontal thunderstorms should coincide with daytime heating to produce a threat for stronger thunderstorms.
Now, let's take a look at the potential for more rain Thursday. You have a cold front near Chicago, high pressure over Nova Scotia and of course, the omnipresent Bermuda ridge. This could setup a trifecta which could spell a long duration period of showers and thunderstorms for the region, but this is really a ways' out and hard to nail down details at this point.
Anyway that's all for now, have a great week! I will probably be back again in two weeks!
_GP!
_GP!
