Currently: There is something of an inverse temperature gradient across the state, with 70s across the north to just around 60 for most of the south coast. This is not so much due to onshore flow, but due to the fact that it is generally cloudy across the south coast, and generally sunny in the north.'
For tonight, skies will clear everywhere after midnight, as drier air from the north pushes southward. Low temperatures statewide will be 40 to 50.
Tomorrow should be a very nice spring day. With lots of sun, most locations should reach the low 70s. Local sea breezes could develop along the south coast, especially east of I 91, which would keep high temperatures in the upper 60s there.
For tomorrow night into Thursday, Continue beautiful spring weather! High temperatures may actually be a few degrees warmer along the South coast on Thursday, due to less of a sea breeze, but very similar high and low temperatures everywhere else. Clouds may increase toward the end of the day in the far western portions of the state, but no rain will fall anywhere.
Long Term: As we move into the long term portion of the forecast, the weather will turn more changeable and unsettled. The first system, a cold front, will approach Friday. Models have trended slower with this system, which makes sense given the blocky pattern. Therefore, I'll keep most of the state dry for most of the day on Friday. For now, I think the best chances for rain will be from early afternoon until the evening hours. In the far northeast, chances for rain will be quite low. There is a chance of thunderstorms everywhere from the 91/84 interchange and points south and west. There is a slight chance of a stronger thunderstorm in the far southwest, but for now, I think the chances for strong to severe thunderstorms will stay south and west of the state. High temperatures should be generally in the mid to upper 60s.
For Saturday, high temperatures will be tricky. There will be a few hours where we get a good amount of sun centered around late morning and this could allow temperatures to spike to near 70 degrees across most of the state. However, later in the day, clouds will increase ahead of another cold front. A band of showers and thunderstorms will accompany this frontal passage during the evening hours. Thereafter, temperatures fall rapidly.
On Sunday, temperatures will likely be ten to fifteen degrees colder than that of Saturday, with the only part of the state that might make 60 degrees would be the immediate south coast. An upper level low will then dive southeast out of the Great Lakes Sunday night. As surface temperatures plunge into the mid 30s to lower 40s and upper level temperatures get even colder than that, conditions could actually support any precipitation that falls to be in the form of snow across the entire state! Obviously, nobody would see any accumulations, but if any snow or even sleet falls from this system, it would be the latest in recorded history across most of the state, beating May 9, 1977, by a full week! (Some locations in the northwest hills have seen snow that late)! Record or not, it would be a very impressive for this time of year!
Fair and generally moderating weather would then be expected for Monday and Tuesday. There is some disagreement amongst the global models timing the next system, with some models bringing precip into the state by Tuesday. However, the slower solutions have worked out better lately. So for now, I'll go with a couple generally nice days Monday and Tuesday with moderating temperatures. High temperatures Monday should be within a few degrees of 60 from north to south, and generally 60-65 on Tuesday. It's far out in time, but as of now, it looks like Tuesday's temperatures could be fairly uniform across the state, as clouds will increase from south to north.
Looking further out, models are hinting that another coastal storm could affect the state during the middle of next week, bringing with it more rain and chilly temperatures. Thereafter, the overall pattern does not look to feature any extended periods of big warmth. Sure, as we head into the latter portion of May, there will be some warm days. But even looking that far out, warmth looks to be muted and limited to a couple days in an overall cool and unsettled pattern.
Now, let's take a look at a couple of graphical images, representing systems that will affect the state in the upcoming week. First, here is an image showing the line of showers and thunderstorms with the frontal passage on Friday.
For tonight, skies will clear everywhere after midnight, as drier air from the north pushes southward. Low temperatures statewide will be 40 to 50.
Tomorrow should be a very nice spring day. With lots of sun, most locations should reach the low 70s. Local sea breezes could develop along the south coast, especially east of I 91, which would keep high temperatures in the upper 60s there.
For tomorrow night into Thursday, Continue beautiful spring weather! High temperatures may actually be a few degrees warmer along the South coast on Thursday, due to less of a sea breeze, but very similar high and low temperatures everywhere else. Clouds may increase toward the end of the day in the far western portions of the state, but no rain will fall anywhere.
Long Term: As we move into the long term portion of the forecast, the weather will turn more changeable and unsettled. The first system, a cold front, will approach Friday. Models have trended slower with this system, which makes sense given the blocky pattern. Therefore, I'll keep most of the state dry for most of the day on Friday. For now, I think the best chances for rain will be from early afternoon until the evening hours. In the far northeast, chances for rain will be quite low. There is a chance of thunderstorms everywhere from the 91/84 interchange and points south and west. There is a slight chance of a stronger thunderstorm in the far southwest, but for now, I think the chances for strong to severe thunderstorms will stay south and west of the state. High temperatures should be generally in the mid to upper 60s.
For Saturday, high temperatures will be tricky. There will be a few hours where we get a good amount of sun centered around late morning and this could allow temperatures to spike to near 70 degrees across most of the state. However, later in the day, clouds will increase ahead of another cold front. A band of showers and thunderstorms will accompany this frontal passage during the evening hours. Thereafter, temperatures fall rapidly.
On Sunday, temperatures will likely be ten to fifteen degrees colder than that of Saturday, with the only part of the state that might make 60 degrees would be the immediate south coast. An upper level low will then dive southeast out of the Great Lakes Sunday night. As surface temperatures plunge into the mid 30s to lower 40s and upper level temperatures get even colder than that, conditions could actually support any precipitation that falls to be in the form of snow across the entire state! Obviously, nobody would see any accumulations, but if any snow or even sleet falls from this system, it would be the latest in recorded history across most of the state, beating May 9, 1977, by a full week! (Some locations in the northwest hills have seen snow that late)! Record or not, it would be a very impressive for this time of year!
Fair and generally moderating weather would then be expected for Monday and Tuesday. There is some disagreement amongst the global models timing the next system, with some models bringing precip into the state by Tuesday. However, the slower solutions have worked out better lately. So for now, I'll go with a couple generally nice days Monday and Tuesday with moderating temperatures. High temperatures Monday should be within a few degrees of 60 from north to south, and generally 60-65 on Tuesday. It's far out in time, but as of now, it looks like Tuesday's temperatures could be fairly uniform across the state, as clouds will increase from south to north.
Looking further out, models are hinting that another coastal storm could affect the state during the middle of next week, bringing with it more rain and chilly temperatures. Thereafter, the overall pattern does not look to feature any extended periods of big warmth. Sure, as we head into the latter portion of May, there will be some warm days. But even looking that far out, warmth looks to be muted and limited to a couple days in an overall cool and unsettled pattern.
Now, let's take a look at a couple of graphical images, representing systems that will affect the state in the upcoming week. First, here is an image showing the line of showers and thunderstorms with the frontal passage on Friday.
This is a pretty standard cold frontal passage in the springtime. The next image will show something that is not "pretty standard" at all for mid-May.
If this image verifies, you have a burst of moderate precipitation occurring across the entire state. This is associated with an upper level low. Temperatures at the upper levels would actually be colder down into Central New Jersey than in much of Eastern Canada! Although we have a long way to go, this setup would actually favor a mix of rain, sleet, and snow showers across the entire state! Stay tuned!
Anyway, that's all for now! Have a great week!
-GP!
Anyway, that's all for now! Have a great week!
-GP!
