I don't like to implicitly state that the forecast has zero confidence in it right off the bat in the header, but there isn't much else you can do when models are flipping like fish out of water,
Current surface analysis shows a trough passing through the area. This trough kicked off a few snow showers across the state this afternoon. A stronger cold front over the Great Lakes region will pass through our region tomorrow, bringing in much colder air.
Tonight: A generally cloudy night, as waves of clouds ahead of the cold front affect the region. However, forcing to produce precipitation is diminishing, so the night will be dry. Expect low temperatures to range from the mid 20s to low 30s.
Tomorrow: Breezy and cooler. There will be a contrast in temperatures from the north, where highs will be in the mid to upper 30s, and south, where they will be 40 to 45. This is due to the southward-moving cold front crossing the northern areas first.
Tomorrow Night/Friday: Cold and generally fair. Highs will be around 30 degrees, with lows ranging from the low teens to low 20s. Breezes will make it feel even colder than that.
Longer Term: Superbowl weekend and beyond: Saturday will be a carbon copy of Friday. A storm will approach the area for Superbowl Sunday, however this storm is looking a lot less potent than it originally was. What was modeled to have a southern stream system interacting with a clipper has turned into a basically non-existent southern stream low and a fairly weak Alberta clipper system passing over Quebec City. For an Alberta Clipper to really produce significant precipitation, it needs to pass near or to the south of the area. Yesterday's system, for example was an Alberta Clipper that passed just to our south, and for that reason, we saw 2-4" of snow in much of the state. AS CURRENTLY MODELED (and I have that in all caps, because as bad as the computer models have been, this is important to note that significant changes even 36 hours out would not surprise me this year), with an Alberta Clipper system passing that far north and no help from the southern stream, all that would mean is some snow showers for the afternoon and evening hours. As far as temperatures on Sunday, expect lows 15 to 20 and highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Monday should feature fair weather and there could be a sneaky cold shot, as high pressure builds in behind the Superbowl clipper. Highs on Monday should be in the 30s. The next storm will threaten the state on Tuesday. Most guidance has this storm cutting to the west of the state, which would ultimately mean warmer air would penetrate the state and any frozen precipitation would change to rain. However, there could be at least a moderate snowfall accumulation before any changeover, especially away from the coast.
For Wednesday, as the storm tracks to the west, enough warm air should have penetrated the state that all precipitation falls as rain. There is an outside chance that a wave of low pressure develops along the cold front and changes rain back over to snow. However, that is not in the forecast right now, since frontal waves are hard to time and usually things have to work out just perfectly to get them to really produce, but something to watch. Either way, much colder air will filter in behind this system. Please keep in mind, this forecast is of very low confidence. The models have been performing wild swings from run to run, so stay tuned, as it would not surprise me to see further large changes needed.
The longer range looks to feature an "Alberta clipper parade" of sorts. Generally, Alberta clippers are known for light precipitation, mostly snow, and reinforcing shots of cold air. Occasionally, a clipper tracking further south or redeveloping off the coast would produce a more significant precipitation event. Currently, there aren't any significant storms modeled, but the best shot would probably be in the 12th-13th time frame.
Now, let's take a look graphically at the systems slated to affect our area this week. First, let's take a look at the clipper for Superbowl Sunday. Note, the storm center is way up near Quebec City. This is not a favorable position for significant snow in Connecticut. Also, note the "coastal" of sorts is just some heavy rain sliding off the coast of North Carolina. To get that event to turn into anything, we'd need the clipper to go much further south and/or that coastal off North Carolina to really form into something and climb the coast.
Current surface analysis shows a trough passing through the area. This trough kicked off a few snow showers across the state this afternoon. A stronger cold front over the Great Lakes region will pass through our region tomorrow, bringing in much colder air.
Tonight: A generally cloudy night, as waves of clouds ahead of the cold front affect the region. However, forcing to produce precipitation is diminishing, so the night will be dry. Expect low temperatures to range from the mid 20s to low 30s.
Tomorrow: Breezy and cooler. There will be a contrast in temperatures from the north, where highs will be in the mid to upper 30s, and south, where they will be 40 to 45. This is due to the southward-moving cold front crossing the northern areas first.
Tomorrow Night/Friday: Cold and generally fair. Highs will be around 30 degrees, with lows ranging from the low teens to low 20s. Breezes will make it feel even colder than that.
Longer Term: Superbowl weekend and beyond: Saturday will be a carbon copy of Friday. A storm will approach the area for Superbowl Sunday, however this storm is looking a lot less potent than it originally was. What was modeled to have a southern stream system interacting with a clipper has turned into a basically non-existent southern stream low and a fairly weak Alberta clipper system passing over Quebec City. For an Alberta Clipper to really produce significant precipitation, it needs to pass near or to the south of the area. Yesterday's system, for example was an Alberta Clipper that passed just to our south, and for that reason, we saw 2-4" of snow in much of the state. AS CURRENTLY MODELED (and I have that in all caps, because as bad as the computer models have been, this is important to note that significant changes even 36 hours out would not surprise me this year), with an Alberta Clipper system passing that far north and no help from the southern stream, all that would mean is some snow showers for the afternoon and evening hours. As far as temperatures on Sunday, expect lows 15 to 20 and highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Monday should feature fair weather and there could be a sneaky cold shot, as high pressure builds in behind the Superbowl clipper. Highs on Monday should be in the 30s. The next storm will threaten the state on Tuesday. Most guidance has this storm cutting to the west of the state, which would ultimately mean warmer air would penetrate the state and any frozen precipitation would change to rain. However, there could be at least a moderate snowfall accumulation before any changeover, especially away from the coast.
For Wednesday, as the storm tracks to the west, enough warm air should have penetrated the state that all precipitation falls as rain. There is an outside chance that a wave of low pressure develops along the cold front and changes rain back over to snow. However, that is not in the forecast right now, since frontal waves are hard to time and usually things have to work out just perfectly to get them to really produce, but something to watch. Either way, much colder air will filter in behind this system. Please keep in mind, this forecast is of very low confidence. The models have been performing wild swings from run to run, so stay tuned, as it would not surprise me to see further large changes needed.
The longer range looks to feature an "Alberta clipper parade" of sorts. Generally, Alberta clippers are known for light precipitation, mostly snow, and reinforcing shots of cold air. Occasionally, a clipper tracking further south or redeveloping off the coast would produce a more significant precipitation event. Currently, there aren't any significant storms modeled, but the best shot would probably be in the 12th-13th time frame.
Now, let's take a look graphically at the systems slated to affect our area this week. First, let's take a look at the clipper for Superbowl Sunday. Note, the storm center is way up near Quebec City. This is not a favorable position for significant snow in Connecticut. Also, note the "coastal" of sorts is just some heavy rain sliding off the coast of North Carolina. To get that event to turn into anything, we'd need the clipper to go much further south and/or that coastal off North Carolina to really form into something and climb the coast.
Next, let's take a look at the system slated to bring snow to the state later Tuesday. Keep in mind, if somehow the Superbowl system could develop into a stronger system, then this system would be much colder/further east. I continue to believe that's why older model runs had this system evolving differently, because they first had the Superbowl system stronger. This is a very low probability, but I am mentioning it because of how bad models have been this year, the possibility is still there.
That's all for now! Have a great rest of your week!
-GP!
-GP!
