The 4th of July weekend is upon us as we turn the page into a new month!
Today was hot and humid as expected, but now our eyes turn toward an approaching cold front that will bring stormy conditions to the first part of the holiday weekend. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to forecast that tomorrow will bring a slight risk of severe weather to the state. What does that mean for your outdoor plans? Let's dive in.
As mentioned above, there's going to be the chance of severe weather, especially in northern CT. For those of you that have followed SCW, you know that a true severe weather threat is usually isolated in nature so tomorrow is nothing to panic over.
That said, we do expect widespread thunderstorms so everyone needs to keep an eye to the sky.
Tomorrow will be a warm and humid day, with highs in the low to mid 80s for most. With decent shear above and an approaching front we have most of the ingredients necessary for some strong to severe storms. The guidance has been waffling a bit on coverage and timing, but here's what I'm thinking right now.
We see a slight chance of showers overnight, especially in northern CT. Nothing to really worry about. Most of the day tomorrow looks decent. I would not cancel outdoor plans, but I would have an umbrella handy and definitely watch the radar.
Early pop up showers and thunderstorms are possible but unlikely tomorrow morning. The odds of rain in your area are probably around 30% in northern CT and 20% in southern CT.
These odds change during the afternoon and evening hours. As the front approaches, we should see a line of heavy showers and thunderstorms develop and push through the state. Everyone should see rain. At this time, I think the best chance of thunderstorms will be between 4pm and 10pm, with the earliest arrival time in NW CT and the latest arrival time in SE CT. That means for most, basically the entire day before 5pm is fine.
We will need to see what the setup looks like tomorrow, but I do think that once this line starts developing, especially if the NAM depiction below is right, it will be potent. Although the biggest severe weather threat is wind gusts, to me, lightning is my biggest concern tomorrow. If you hear thunder tomorrow immediately head indoors. Don't be on the water, and don't be in open fields and under trees if there are thunderstorms near. A thunderstorm need not be severe to be deadly.
The front will move through tomorrow night, and push far enough south to put us in the clear for Sunday and Monday.
Below: the HRRR depiction for tomorrow. It's very different with virtually no storms in northern Connecticut and storms developing in southern CT around 4pm tomorrow. This is not as favored, but it is possible.
It'll feel like summer, but the humidity will be dropping as high pressure takes over. Sunday is an excellent day for outdoor activities, as we see highs in the low to mid 80s and clear conditions. Humidity will be much lower.
Much like Sunday, high pressure remains in control and outdoor activities are a go for the 4th of July, with highs in the low to mid 80s, relatively comfortable humidity, and clear conditions.
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