Currently: Tropical high pressure over most of the Eastern US. Cold front near Detroit, which is what will ultimately end the heat. TD Fred between Cuba and the Bahamas. Will discuss that later, but that may have some impact on our wx later in the week.
Tonight: NBM guidance has been running warm, so I'll chop off a couple deg. Even so, hard to imagine anyone in the state getting much below 70. A warm and muggy night. Will carry a slight chance for t-storms in the first half of the night, given the warm, humid air mass. One thing to note, when it's this warm, it's easy to sustain t-storm strength deeper into the night than usual.
Tomorrow: Will continue going just a shade under NBM guidance, as that strategy has worked the past few days. Humidity usually verifies a bit higher and temps a couple deg cooler, for a net even regarding heat indices. Will hold off t-storms during the day, as the action looks to stay to our west. Highs should be near 90, except low 90s in the I 91 corridor.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Will carry scattered t-storms throughout the night. T-storms should get cranking from the air mass and only increase in coverage as the cold front approaches. I have slight chance pops going into Sat morning, as the front has shown a slowing trend. This is not hard to imagine, given the strength of the Bermuda Ridge. For now, I clear us out during the day, but it would not be hard to imagine the front slowing down, esp for the S coast. I went a few deg cooler than the NBM, given some members keep the front too far N. One thing I also want to point out- most models have a sharp drop in dew points behind the front. Therefore, it is hard to believe any precip lingers behind the front. If we do get precip on Sat, it will be because the front slowed down and did not go thru, not because we got precip behind the front. At any rate, highs should mostly be in the low 80s.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): Main problem in the long term is going to be what to do with remnants of Fred. Models are flip flopping like crazy regarding the evolution of the system, and are even having difficulties with timing. Before that happens, we should enjoy a few days of nice wx.
For Sunday, I went a couple deg below NBM guidance, as we have good CAA. Highs should be near 80 degrees, maybe upper 70s in the NW hills and along the immediate S coast.
For Monday, I went close to guidance. Advection looks close to neutral. Nice day, with highs close to 80, a degree or two warmer and cooler in the usual spots.
For Tuesday, again stayed close to guidance. Another nice day. Maybe a deg or so warmer than Mon. Possibly 80-85 showing up in the I 91 corridor.
Wed-Fri: I think the best course of action regarding the remnants of Fred for now is to just go 40-50 POPS Wed and Thu and 30-40 POPs Fri. Obviously, it will not really take all that time for Fred to get thru. But models are all over the place regarding timing. Additionally, it is not even a "done deal" that we'll get anything, since Fred is only a TD and may very well have to traverse more land, so there may not be much left of it. If it were a stronger storm, I'd go with higher POPs. So we'll leave it like that for now and allow later crews to refine. Regarding temps, w/all the uncertainty, the best course is to just follow guidance. So I did. For now, I have 80-85 on Wed and near 80 for Thu, w/both days a couple deg warmer along I 91.
I did not include graphics w/this package since remnants of Fred is still at day 6-8 and there is so much model mayhem going on.
The long range may feature yet another pattern of fronts stalling out and possible tropical threats offering many chances for heavy rains. Where have I seen this movie before?
Take care and I'll see you next week!