Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather.
As of the 5pm advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Jose is a hurricane with winds of 90 mph and is moving north at 9 mph.
The NHC has now issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Fenwick Island, Delaware, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including Delaware Bay South, and from East Rockaway Inlet, New York, to Plymouth, Massachusetts, including Long Island Sound, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.
This includes coastal Connecticut
Tropical Storm Watches are issued when the potential exists for sustained tropical storm winds (winds over 39 mph) within 48 hours.
Although Jose is currently a strong category one hurricane, it doesn’t look particularly impressive at this moment, with a tilted core due to shear and a lack of truly robust convection. The highest winds are confined to a very small section of the system.
As of the 5pm advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Jose is a hurricane with winds of 90 mph and is moving north at 9 mph.
The NHC has now issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Fenwick Island, Delaware, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including Delaware Bay South, and from East Rockaway Inlet, New York, to Plymouth, Massachusetts, including Long Island Sound, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.
This includes coastal Connecticut
Tropical Storm Watches are issued when the potential exists for sustained tropical storm winds (winds over 39 mph) within 48 hours.
Although Jose is currently a strong category one hurricane, it doesn’t look particularly impressive at this moment, with a tilted core due to shear and a lack of truly robust convection. The highest winds are confined to a very small section of the system.
This is a difficult forecast. Although we understand the large scale environment very well and there is a good deal of consistency in how that evolves, we are prisoner to shifts in track and strength that will make the difference between a low and moderate impact event. I am going to give you the best information and prediction that I have at the moment, and you should know that shifts in either direction are possible.
Instead of pivoting from model run to model run, I want to once again preach preparation. Prepare as if you will be visited by a weak to moderate tropical storm (wind gusts between 40-60).
Instead of pivoting from model run to model run, I want to once again preach preparation. Prepare as if you will be visited by a weak to moderate tropical storm (wind gusts between 40-60).
The Forecast
First, Jose is expected to weaken and make its closest approach to Connecticut as a tropical storm, not a hurricane. Even though Jose is not expected to make landfall over Connecticut, it will have a large rain and wind field that will likely bring gusty winds and some rain to much of the state.
Potential Impacts
As I said the other day, it is important to not just look at the center line when we’re talking about tropical systems. Impacts extend out far from even the cone of uncertainty at times. Today I want to provide more refined points on potential impacts.
Rain—It currently looks like Jose will get close enough to bring rain to much of Connecticut. The European model has been most aggressive bringing rain into the state, with most falling in southern and eastern Connecticut. Still, under any scenario currently on the table, significant *inland* flooding looks unlikely. Currently I expect:
Coastal Flooding—I’m still a bit uncomfortable talking about this in detail, but I think people at the shore should be prepared for minor to moderate coastal flooding. There remains potential for some beach erosion and rough surf regardless of track. People along the shoreline should not panic, but remain weather aware and begin securing property tonight and Monday.
Timing
Currently, there is a bit of a split on when the strongest rain and wind arrive. However, I currently think that we will see showers on Tuesday, with heavier rain by Tuesday night into much of Wednesday. For wind, I expect the onset of stronger winds to happen Tuesday evening through much of Wednesday. This is low confidence. Stay tuned to further shifts for this to be refined. Everyone should anticipate Tuesday and/or Wednesday being impacted.
Potential Impacts
As I said the other day, it is important to not just look at the center line when we’re talking about tropical systems. Impacts extend out far from even the cone of uncertainty at times. Today I want to provide more refined points on potential impacts.
Rain—It currently looks like Jose will get close enough to bring rain to much of Connecticut. The European model has been most aggressive bringing rain into the state, with most falling in southern and eastern Connecticut. Still, under any scenario currently on the table, significant *inland* flooding looks unlikely. Currently I expect:
- .5-1” in NW CT
- 1- 2” in central CT
- 2-4” in coastal sections, with the highest amounts in SE CT
- Gusts between 40-60 mph in SE CT
- Gusts between 40-50 mph along the rest of the shoreline and interior CT, with higher gusts closer to the shore
- This is heavily dependent upon the track and strength of the system.
Coastal Flooding—I’m still a bit uncomfortable talking about this in detail, but I think people at the shore should be prepared for minor to moderate coastal flooding. There remains potential for some beach erosion and rough surf regardless of track. People along the shoreline should not panic, but remain weather aware and begin securing property tonight and Monday.
Timing
Currently, there is a bit of a split on when the strongest rain and wind arrive. However, I currently think that we will see showers on Tuesday, with heavier rain by Tuesday night into much of Wednesday. For wind, I expect the onset of stronger winds to happen Tuesday evening through much of Wednesday. This is low confidence. Stay tuned to further shifts for this to be refined. Everyone should anticipate Tuesday and/or Wednesday being impacted.
I think it is still too early to provide specifics about cancelations and delays, but keep an eye out for the Tuesday PM and Wednesday AM commutes being potentially impacted, with the possibility of school delays and cancelations especially the shoreline—particularly SE CT.
I wish I could provide a higher confidence forecast across the board but the data just doesn’t allow me to do that right now. This is the time where we refine our forecast, but that should not impact your preparation. Listen to your local officials.
The SCW team will continue to closely monitor Jose. We will be back with updates as necessary. As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
- DB
I wish I could provide a higher confidence forecast across the board but the data just doesn’t allow me to do that right now. This is the time where we refine our forecast, but that should not impact your preparation. Listen to your local officials.
The SCW team will continue to closely monitor Jose. We will be back with updates as necessary. As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
- DB
