Currently: The entire state is now in the warm sector...
Tonight: Temps will not fall very much, esp along the coast where temps are cool now. Went close to guidance. Morning temps only in the upper 50s. There is just a slight chance of a shower overnight, bu most places will see little or nothing.
Tomorrow: First off, SPC has placed most of the state in a slight risk of svr t-storms and I tend to agree. I would include everyone except the SE 1/4 of the state and that's basically what SPC did. Out of an abundance of caution, I went just a bit lower than NBM temps. But it could very well be a bit warmer. I just wanted to be cautious in case clouds arrive early (or linger later). Even so, still looking at highs of 70-75 for most, w/warmer along I 91 and cooler along the S coast.
Tomorrow Night/Fri: Cooler air filters in. After storms leave, very nice wx for tomorrow night into Fri. Went a bit under guidance for Fri's highs, because there is actually decent cold air advection. Look for highs on Fri of 60-65.
Long Term: The main concern in the long term is a coastal low early next week.
First off for Sat, I went way under guidance. Cold front approaches and the upper levels are already cold. So look for a quick period of showers and t-storms in the afternoon, w/high temps for most in the upper 50s.
For Sun, many people will be celebrating Easter, look for sun, but a chilly day for the time of yr! Went close to guidance, but this may be too warm if we get CU development. At any rate, 50-55 on a sunny day in mid-Apr is pretty chilly!
For Mon, clouds will increase ahead of the next sys. I went quite a bit under guidance, due to clouds moving in, onshore flow, and an already chilly air mass in place. Highs generally low 50s, MAYBE a few mid 50s along I 91 IF the sun can stay out long enough.
A coastal low of some sort will affect the area later Mon into early Tue. Details are still uncertain at this point regarding the exact evolution of the storm, how long it will last, how strong it deepens, exact track, etc. So I have chance POPs Mon afternoon, likely Mon night and then back to chance Tue. It appears pretty definite that we'll at least get a shot of rain Mon night, maybe more than that depending on how the sys evolves. It should also be windy on Tue, regardless of whether it is directly from the coastal or as the storm pulls away. For now, I have assumed we clear out on Tue. This assumption gives us highs in the mid 50s, w/upper 50s along I 91, which is right in line with guidance.
Wed is a nice day between systems. Stayed close to guidance w/no reason not to. Looks like mostly upper 50s for highs. More rain prob for Thu.
The long range looks to be summed up succinctly by saying that there are no signs of any sustained warmth as far as the eye can see!
As for graphics today, I have the thunderstorms for tomorrow, and one representation of the rain Monday night. The GFS, which I am showing here, shows a cold front, w/enhanced rain from an offshore low, but not a true coastal. Other models are more robust. I think the GFS will be wrong.