Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Quiet weather is in store for the first half of the forecast period, with a seasonably warm and sunny weekend on tap. The same will not be true for the extended, however, as a powerful storm is expected to track up the coast, bringing significant precipitation and strong winds to the area. The precipitation type, however, is very unclear.
Friday-Sunday
Strong upper level ridging builds over the area in the short term, leading to a warm and mostly dry forecast. We could see some scattered showers over the area Friday night, but otherwise, expecting dry weather to prevail. With the strong ridge in place, temps will be well above normal, especially on Saturday as the chances for sun are higher. Should see highs in the low to mid 40s on Friday and Sunday, with Saturday being the winner(if you like warm weather) with low to mid 50s!
Quiet weather is in store for the first half of the forecast period, with a seasonably warm and sunny weekend on tap. The same will not be true for the extended, however, as a powerful storm is expected to track up the coast, bringing significant precipitation and strong winds to the area. The precipitation type, however, is very unclear.
Friday-Sunday
Strong upper level ridging builds over the area in the short term, leading to a warm and mostly dry forecast. We could see some scattered showers over the area Friday night, but otherwise, expecting dry weather to prevail. With the strong ridge in place, temps will be well above normal, especially on Saturday as the chances for sun are higher. Should see highs in the low to mid 40s on Friday and Sunday, with Saturday being the winner(if you like warm weather) with low to mid 50s!
Expect a mix of sun and clouds through the weekend, with cloudiness increasing as we head towards Sunday. We could see some early showers make their way into the area Sunday afternoon ahead of our next system, which brings us to…
Monday-Tuesday
A powerful system will make its way up the coastline this weekend, reaching our area by early next week. This is a classic “Miller A” coastal storm, with a large, deep low coming up the coastline and tracking just offshore. Typically, with an offshore track and a strong area of high pressure to our north (which we are going to have in some form in this system), that’s a recipe for a substantial snowstorm in the state. However, the antecedent airmass that we will be working with is very warm(remember, 50s for highs this weekend!), and so we will need some help from blocking and dynamic cooling if we were to see significant wintry weather from this event.
As is usual, the guidance differs on what the system will look like. The general trend over the last few model cycles has been to strengthen the block and keep it in place over us. This in turn forces the warmer air south and out under us instead of bringing it further north, replacing it with cold Canadian air pressing down from the north, and the result is a colder solution that would bring wintry precipitation to much of the state. Slightly more progressive with the block, however, and the approaching storm pushes it east, flooding the midlevels with warmth and resulting in a mostly rain event, with any wintry precipitation that does fall being mostly sleet/freezing rain.
To show this, here’s a look at the last two runs of the NAM valid for 7 AM Monday morning.
Monday-Tuesday
A powerful system will make its way up the coastline this weekend, reaching our area by early next week. This is a classic “Miller A” coastal storm, with a large, deep low coming up the coastline and tracking just offshore. Typically, with an offshore track and a strong area of high pressure to our north (which we are going to have in some form in this system), that’s a recipe for a substantial snowstorm in the state. However, the antecedent airmass that we will be working with is very warm(remember, 50s for highs this weekend!), and so we will need some help from blocking and dynamic cooling if we were to see significant wintry weather from this event.
As is usual, the guidance differs on what the system will look like. The general trend over the last few model cycles has been to strengthen the block and keep it in place over us. This in turn forces the warmer air south and out under us instead of bringing it further north, replacing it with cold Canadian air pressing down from the north, and the result is a colder solution that would bring wintry precipitation to much of the state. Slightly more progressive with the block, however, and the approaching storm pushes it east, flooding the midlevels with warmth and resulting in a mostly rain event, with any wintry precipitation that does fall being mostly sleet/freezing rain.
To show this, here’s a look at the last two runs of the NAM valid for 7 AM Monday morning.
Comparing them, you can see that on the 0z NAM, the whole setup is pushed slightly further east and more progressive, resulting in more room for the warm air to make its way into the area. The result is clear at the surface; the 18z has snow across much of the interior while the 0z has a sloppy mix in the northern tier and rain elsewhere. I expect that we will continue to see these fluctuations in the guidance over the next couple of days, and it will not be until the weekend that we start to get a better idea of the details. Even if this is a primarily rain event, it will be impactful; substantial precipitation(1-2”+) is likely, and strong winds are expected as well, especially on the coastline. No matter how you slice it, it’s going to be a stormy start to the week, so stay tuned!
Wednesday-Thursday
Should be fairly quiet on Wednesday before a follow-up clipper arrives for Wednesday night into Thursday. Guidance passes this system to our north right now, but will keep an eye on it, as it will likely be influenced at least somewhat by the track of our earlier storm. As such, adding slight chance pops for rain or snow to the forecast. Above normal temps look to continue throughout the period as colder air remains bottled up in Canada.
The Dailies
Friday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday: Partly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 50s.
Sunday: Increasing clouds, with a chance of a wintry mix late. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Monday: Rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain likely. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Tuesday: A chance of rain, then gradually ending. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 40s.
Thursday: A slight chance of rain or snow, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 40s.
We’ll be keeping a close eye on this upcoming system and will have updates throughout the weekend as needed. Also, keep an eye out for Don’s next two-week outlook in the next couple of days. Thank you for reading SCW!
-SA
Wednesday-Thursday
Should be fairly quiet on Wednesday before a follow-up clipper arrives for Wednesday night into Thursday. Guidance passes this system to our north right now, but will keep an eye on it, as it will likely be influenced at least somewhat by the track of our earlier storm. As such, adding slight chance pops for rain or snow to the forecast. Above normal temps look to continue throughout the period as colder air remains bottled up in Canada.
The Dailies
Friday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday: Partly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 50s.
Sunday: Increasing clouds, with a chance of a wintry mix late. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Monday: Rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain likely. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Tuesday: A chance of rain, then gradually ending. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 40s.
Thursday: A slight chance of rain or snow, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 40s.
We’ll be keeping a close eye on this upcoming system and will have updates throughout the weekend as needed. Also, keep an eye out for Don’s next two-week outlook in the next couple of days. Thank you for reading SCW!
-SA
