Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
This weekend was a mixed bag, with a nice day on Saturday that was taken down a few notches due to Canadian wildfire smoke and Sunday being cooler but wet at times.
The week ahead is a classic summertime seesaw. We end the month with a ridge of high pressure bringing another likely heat wave to much of the state, and then we see a wholesale (but likely temporary) transition into a period of cooler and less humid weather. Within that change, a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain. Let's dive in.
This weekend was a mixed bag, with a nice day on Saturday that was taken down a few notches due to Canadian wildfire smoke and Sunday being cooler but wet at times.
The week ahead is a classic summertime seesaw. We end the month with a ridge of high pressure bringing another likely heat wave to much of the state, and then we see a wholesale (but likely temporary) transition into a period of cooler and less humid weather. Within that change, a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain. Let's dive in.
Above: A heat advisory is up for most of the state Monday through Wednesday as the combination of heat and humidity will bring widespread heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100. Even in NW CT, it will be hot, so as we've said often this summer make sure you are taking proper heat precautions.
Monday-Wednesday
The first half of the week is hot. It'll guarantee that our July ends above normal in temperature. A big ridge of high pressure which is baking much of the central U.S. will begin exerting its control over our part of the world, bringing increasing heat and humidity. In fact, this looks like a solid heat wave in that high temperatures inland could reach the mid 90s each day. Temperatures have underperformed a bit lately, but I still think the ingredients are there for a three consecutive days of 90+.
With the ridge in place, things look sunny and dry, especially Monday and Tuesday. The bright side of this new regime is that with southwest flow we should see the wildfire smoke depart. With the hazy and hot nature of the week however it may not fully alleviate our air quality concerns so keep that in mind as you're engaged in outdoor activities.
Monday-Wednesday
The first half of the week is hot. It'll guarantee that our July ends above normal in temperature. A big ridge of high pressure which is baking much of the central U.S. will begin exerting its control over our part of the world, bringing increasing heat and humidity. In fact, this looks like a solid heat wave in that high temperatures inland could reach the mid 90s each day. Temperatures have underperformed a bit lately, but I still think the ingredients are there for a three consecutive days of 90+.
With the ridge in place, things look sunny and dry, especially Monday and Tuesday. The bright side of this new regime is that with southwest flow we should see the wildfire smoke depart. With the hazy and hot nature of the week however it may not fully alleviate our air quality concerns so keep that in mind as you're engaged in outdoor activities.
Above: the latest GFS depiction of the ridge over much of the country this week. Note how troughing move in by later Wednesday. That will open up the door for a front to move through, but will also herald the arrival of a new airmass to start our August--the last 1/3 of meteorological summer.
Wednesday is looking like the afternoon and evening will bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms, but that all depends on the timing of the front.
Thursday-Sunday
The latter half of the week is interesting for a couple of reasons. First, the heat is likely to break Wednesday, but how it breaks matters. Depending on the timing of the front we may see storms that could be strong to severe. Stay tuned for that.
Thursday will also bring more rain and storm chances, but this time it's from a wave that may try to develop along the front. Anytime I see this in the summer my antenna is put up because that can be a good way to trigger a heavy rain event. The GFS shows a lesser version of a wet Thursday by hanging the front up in the area and keeping a potential low well to our south, leading to a day of showers and likely non-severe storms.
The Euro on the other hand lights part of the state up with heavy rain, as you'll see below. The Euro has been pretty consistent on this in recent runs, and the setup is plausible, so this is something we will be watching closely.
Wednesday is looking like the afternoon and evening will bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms, but that all depends on the timing of the front.
Thursday-Sunday
The latter half of the week is interesting for a couple of reasons. First, the heat is likely to break Wednesday, but how it breaks matters. Depending on the timing of the front we may see storms that could be strong to severe. Stay tuned for that.
Thursday will also bring more rain and storm chances, but this time it's from a wave that may try to develop along the front. Anytime I see this in the summer my antenna is put up because that can be a good way to trigger a heavy rain event. The GFS shows a lesser version of a wet Thursday by hanging the front up in the area and keeping a potential low well to our south, leading to a day of showers and likely non-severe storms.
The Euro on the other hand lights part of the state up with heavy rain, as you'll see below. The Euro has been pretty consistent on this in recent runs, and the setup is plausible, so this is something we will be watching closely.
Above: the 12z Euro depiction of the stalled front to our south on Thursday becoming a focal point for heavy rain in parts of the state on both Thursday and a bit of Friday. This is far from set in stone, but with the general setup showing up on the Euro and GFS it is worth watching for the potential of heavy rain.
In the wake of whatever comes Thursday and Friday, we clear out as the trough brings cooler and drier weather. With high pressure in place, we start August with a reprieve from the heat and humidity, if only for a few days...
In the wake of whatever comes Thursday and Friday, we clear out as the trough brings cooler and drier weather. With high pressure in place, we start August with a reprieve from the heat and humidity, if only for a few days...
Above: A European Ensemble depiction of temperature anomalies over the continent between Monday and the first week of August. Our heat wave will be broken, but the warmth is not too far away...
The Dailies
Monday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the low to mid 90s. A touch cooler wherever there is a sea breeze.
Tuesday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the low to mid 90s. A touch cooler wherever there is a sea breeze.
Wednesday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Chance of thunderstorms later in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the low to mid 90s. Chance of storms 50%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy and cooler with rain and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 60%.
Friday: Rain showers early with decreasing clouds during the day. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 40%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
The Dailies
Monday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the low to mid 90s. A touch cooler wherever there is a sea breeze.
Tuesday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the low to mid 90s. A touch cooler wherever there is a sea breeze.
Wednesday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Chance of thunderstorms later in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the low to mid 90s. Chance of storms 50%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy and cooler with rain and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 60%.
Friday: Rain showers early with decreasing clouds during the day. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 40%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
