Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
If you like deep summer, this is the best week of the season thus far for summer weather. Let's keep this forecast brief and dive right in.
If you like deep summer, this is the best week of the season thus far for summer weather. Let's keep this forecast brief and dive right in.
Above: GFS Ensemble (GEFS) depiction of the forecast period temperature anomalies nationwide. It'll be a warm week ahead, with the heat peaking on Friday.
Tuesday
Our quiet conditions probably end tomorrow afternoon, as a mid-level trough brings forcing into the region to allow for more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Most of the day looks fine, but we'll just need to watch the afternoon and early evening for rain chances.
The severe risk looks low, but strong winds and hail, with torrential rainfall are possible in any storms that do develop. Temperatures don't look bad, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. That is normal for late July, which is climatologically speaking our warmest of the year with average temperatures.
Tuesday
Our quiet conditions probably end tomorrow afternoon, as a mid-level trough brings forcing into the region to allow for more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Most of the day looks fine, but we'll just need to watch the afternoon and early evening for rain chances.
The severe risk looks low, but strong winds and hail, with torrential rainfall are possible in any storms that do develop. Temperatures don't look bad, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. That is normal for late July, which is climatologically speaking our warmest of the year with average temperatures.
Above: the 18z high resolution NAM depiction of tomorrow between 2-8pm. It obviously won't end up like this, but the depiction shows scattered showers and storms during the afternoon hours, particularly late afternoon and early evening.
Wednesday-Thursday
Each day this week will get a bit warmer, and Wednesday is likely the start of the heat wave, at least inland.
Believe it or not, despite the high humidity our air temperatures haven't been that hot. In fact, we have only had one official inland heat wave this season--earlier in the month when BDL strung together four days of 90 or higher temperatures. Three consecutive 90+ days are necessary for a heat wave, and we haven't had a lot of 90 degree days this summer.
A big ridge will bring hot and increasingly humid conditions on Wednesday, with little chance of rain. Thursday, however, will be hotter and potentially more active as a weak system tries to move through the region. As a result, we may get the forcing for strong to severe storms. That's something we'll be watching, but at the very least expect increasingly hot and humid conditions--day and night--especially on Thursday.
We probably see Heat Advisories on Thursday with the heat index between 95-100 degrees.
Wednesday-Thursday
Each day this week will get a bit warmer, and Wednesday is likely the start of the heat wave, at least inland.
Believe it or not, despite the high humidity our air temperatures haven't been that hot. In fact, we have only had one official inland heat wave this season--earlier in the month when BDL strung together four days of 90 or higher temperatures. Three consecutive 90+ days are necessary for a heat wave, and we haven't had a lot of 90 degree days this summer.
A big ridge will bring hot and increasingly humid conditions on Wednesday, with little chance of rain. Thursday, however, will be hotter and potentially more active as a weak system tries to move through the region. As a result, we may get the forcing for strong to severe storms. That's something we'll be watching, but at the very least expect increasingly hot and humid conditions--day and night--especially on Thursday.
We probably see Heat Advisories on Thursday with the heat index between 95-100 degrees.
Above: the 18z GFS heat index forecast for Friday afternoon. I think this may actually be a bit underdone, and a number of locations may see temperatures in the mid 90s with heat indices over 100 degrees.
Friday-Saturday
The peak of the heat arrives on Friday, with a strong signal across guidance that virtually all of the state is hazy, hot, and humid with highs in the 90s and dew points in the oppressive range. This may be the hottest day of the year so far, and heat headlines are likely. Heat Advisories are most likely, but if inland areas see highs tick up into the upper 90s, excessive heat warnings are possible. I'd peg that as unlikely for now.
A few days ago, it looked like a strong cold front would arrive on Friday, bringing a chance of strong to severe storms. Now, the guidance has slowed the passage of the front, meaning that Saturday is looking hot as well, though not as hot as Friday right now. Each day will have plenty of sun, but the severe storm threat now looks limited to Saturday as the front approaches. It is something we will be watching.
Sunday-Monday
If you are longing for the below normal days with lower humidity, Sunday will be your pick of the week. In the wake of the front, I am expecting sunny and cooler conditions with much lower humidity. That relief should actually close out our July on the following Monday as well.
The Dailies
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and warmer with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of rain 50%
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, hot and humid. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of storms 10%.
Thursday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the low to mid 90s. Chance of storms 40%.
Friday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 90s. Chance of storms 10%.
Saturday: Hot and humid early with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of storms 50%.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with cooler and less humid conditions. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low 80s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Friday-Saturday
The peak of the heat arrives on Friday, with a strong signal across guidance that virtually all of the state is hazy, hot, and humid with highs in the 90s and dew points in the oppressive range. This may be the hottest day of the year so far, and heat headlines are likely. Heat Advisories are most likely, but if inland areas see highs tick up into the upper 90s, excessive heat warnings are possible. I'd peg that as unlikely for now.
A few days ago, it looked like a strong cold front would arrive on Friday, bringing a chance of strong to severe storms. Now, the guidance has slowed the passage of the front, meaning that Saturday is looking hot as well, though not as hot as Friday right now. Each day will have plenty of sun, but the severe storm threat now looks limited to Saturday as the front approaches. It is something we will be watching.
Sunday-Monday
If you are longing for the below normal days with lower humidity, Sunday will be your pick of the week. In the wake of the front, I am expecting sunny and cooler conditions with much lower humidity. That relief should actually close out our July on the following Monday as well.
The Dailies
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and warmer with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of rain 50%
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, hot and humid. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of storms 10%.
Thursday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the low to mid 90s. Chance of storms 40%.
Friday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 90s. Chance of storms 10%.
Saturday: Hot and humid early with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of storms 50%.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with cooler and less humid conditions. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low 80s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
