It’s a chilly December day across the state as we’re seeing daytime highs only topping out in the 20s today and with the brisk wind it feels like it’s in the low to mid teens across most of the forecast area. Should see this general pattern continue through the end of the week before we warm up to more seasonal levels throughout the weekend and into early next week.
Tonight & Thursday
We’re expecting a bit of light snow later tonight into tomorrow morning. Here’s our forecast snowmap.
Both latitude and longitude will play a role here - the storm is passing to our south so those closest to the coastline will have the best chance of getting into any banding that develops, while those further west should catch the storm while it’s a bit stronger and so could see a bit more QPF. As far as snow totals go, not expecting very much as QPF generally looks light across the state - .05” or so in most areas with .1” ish in coastal areas and further west. However, there is a decent area of lift and the column looks great for high-ratio snow, and so I’m going to be a bit more optimistic on snow totals than I normally would be in this sort of setup. As such, expecting a general coating to an inch or two across most of the state, and will highlight the south coast and especially southern Fairfield county for a localized 3” possibility given the modeled desire to favor that area and the combination of favorable latitude and longitude there.
As far as timing goes, should see light snow break out across the state in the 2-4 AM range from SW to NE, and should see snow exit by the tail end of the morning commute. Could see some slowdowns tomorrow morning on the roads, especially on the south coast, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a school delay or two, south coast again being the favored area.
Once snow moves out, expect a similar day to today for the rest of your Thursday with clearing skies and cold temps - highs only ranging through the 20s!
Here’s the SCW impact scale for this event. Thank you all for your feedback so far - keep it coming!
Quiet weather for the weekend and a gradual warming trend each day - highs in the 20s again on Friday but then into the low 30s on Saturday and the mid 30s on Sunday. Should see mostly sunny skies, but there is the possibility of some snow showers Friday night from a weak shortwave passing to our north and then again on Saturday if any rouge lake effect bands make their way into our area. Will add low chance pops to the forecast to cover that risk.
Our next possible system approaches for early next week and looks to follow a somewhat similar pattern to yesterdays system although it may be displaced a bit further north. The GFS model is fairly warm and would be a mostly if not entirely rain event, while the European model is further south and would bring more of a chance for mixed precipitation in the northern portion of the state. Timing on the solutions differs as well - the Euro makes it a Tuesday event while the GFS waits until Wednesday to pass through our area. Will add chance pops for rain and snow into the forecast and wait for the details to become clearer on this system before we speculate any further. Otherwise, near-normal temperatures expected, although the ultimate result will depend heavily on what if any storm develops.
Here’s a look at the system on both the Euro and the GFS.
Thursday: Snow likely early, then clearing, with highs in the mid to upper 20s. Chance of snow is 70%. Snow accumulation possible - see snowmap for details.
Friday: Mostly sunny and cold, with highs in the mid to upper 20s.
Saturday: A chance of snow showers, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitaiton is 30%.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 30s.
Monday: Partly sunny, with highs in the low 40s.
Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low 40s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday: A chance of rain and snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Have a great rest of your week and thank you for reading SCW!