Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather.
This will be a brief discussion that covers the next few days. As I said yesterday, guidance has honed in on a minor period of snow late tonight into Christmas Eve. Given how hostile the pattern has been for snow, this is one of those deals where we would sneak something in.
Sunday
Today has been a beautiful, but chilly day. These conditions will continue through the rest of the day and much of the evening, keeping travel plans intact. Clouds are expected to start moving in late tonight/early morning, and that should allow the temperatures to drop to near or below freezing. Some snow flurries may move into the state before midnight, but it's unlikely for most and won't cause any travel issues.
This will be a brief discussion that covers the next few days. As I said yesterday, guidance has honed in on a minor period of snow late tonight into Christmas Eve. Given how hostile the pattern has been for snow, this is one of those deals where we would sneak something in.
Sunday
Today has been a beautiful, but chilly day. These conditions will continue through the rest of the day and much of the evening, keeping travel plans intact. Clouds are expected to start moving in late tonight/early morning, and that should allow the temperatures to drop to near or below freezing. Some snow flurries may move into the state before midnight, but it's unlikely for most and won't cause any travel issues.
High resolution NAM depiction above. Snow starts after midnight and we see snow showers on and off during the day. This is just one model depiction.
Christmas Eve
Snow is expected to begin after midnight. There are still some questions over the length and intensity of snowfall, but it looks like we should start off as snow even to the shoreline. This is the first push by the low that will scoot underneath the state.
Guidance has trended weaker in the last few runs with this initial wave, and stronger with the follow up wave or inverted trough. That throws in a considerable amount of uncertainty, as inverted troughs can set up anywhere and produce surprise amounts of snow.
We will also need to watch temperatures during the day, as they could be warm enough especially in southern Connecticut to flip things to rain showers during the day. I do think that most of what falls tomorrow will be snow however.
Snow is expected to begin after midnight. There are still some questions over the length and intensity of snowfall, but it looks like we should start off as snow even to the shoreline. This is the first push by the low that will scoot underneath the state.
Guidance has trended weaker in the last few runs with this initial wave, and stronger with the follow up wave or inverted trough. That throws in a considerable amount of uncertainty, as inverted troughs can set up anywhere and produce surprise amounts of snow.
We will also need to watch temperatures during the day, as they could be warm enough especially in southern Connecticut to flip things to rain showers during the day. I do think that most of what falls tomorrow will be snow however.
Latest HRRR depicting the onset of snow overnight.
Overall
- A light snowfall is expected.
- Guidance is honing in on a period of light snow late Sunday night into Monday morning.
- This is expected to be a light event, but I want to hold off on locking in snow amounts for now to see what the guidance does during the day.
- Right now, I can see as little as a coating (especially near the shoreline) to a couple inches in the lucky spots.
- Some lingering snow is possible during the day on Christmas Eve, especially if an inverted trough sets up over the state. That part of the forecast is much more uncertain and may favor eastern areas of the state if at all.
- Road conditions may be impacted if this trends toward a widespread couple inches for the state.
