Models are all over the place regarding a potential coastal low this weekend and its effects on the state, w/potential effects ranging from a few high clouds to rain and potential flooding concerns. I will jump into the details a bit further down in the disc.
Currently: High pressure covers the entire NE CONUS. Nothing going on and pleasantly warm temps for the time of yr.
Tonight: This is the kind of night that is the easiest for guidance temps- no significant advection, not great radiational conditions, and no precip. So for that reason, no need to complicate things and I'll go straight w/guidance. Lows should be 55-60 degrees, right in line w/temp guidance.
Tomorrow: End result fcst ends up being close to, but a touch lower, than temp guidance. Similar to today, we may start the day shrouded in low clouds and w/the lower sun angle, they'll take a few hrs to burn off. This could cut into daytime warming just a bit. Otherwise, still a nice day, w/highs of 70-75.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Models already begin to diverge here. Most models do not have any precip on Sat, while the GFS has light pcpn along the S coast. For now, I'll run w/a 30 POP, and not care about it too much, as any precip that does occur would be less than .05". At any rate, a backdoor cold front drops down Fri eve, and temps will be much cooler on Sat, along w/a stiff NE breeze. To compensate for NBM #s likely being in "catch up" mode, I have gone a few deg under guidance. Temps prob stay in the low 60s Sat!
Long Term (Sun and beyond): If you believe the GFS, Sun will be a good day to cut the grass. If you believe the Euro and GGEM models, Sun will at the very least be a dank and gloomy day and maybe even see heavy rain and localized flooding. Confidence is no higher than it was a week ago for this time period! The GGEM has trended wetter, the ECMWF has held its ground or got wetter, and the GFS has held its ground or gotten even further from a storm! A middle ground solution has trended a bit wetter. The GFS is usually really good when it is this locked in, but I can't ride a solution that is that far apart from the others, either. Putting all the factors together, I think Sun will at least be OVC and cool, w/at least a chance of some rain w/the highest chances along the S coast. POPs for Sun are 10-20% higher than I would have had them yesterday at this time, in the 50% range. As I usually do when clouds and precip are in the fcst, I subtracted a few deg off NBM guidance. This yields highs of 60-65 across the state, maybe a deg or two higher if/where it does not rain. Stay tuned for any updates from DB or I as this situation is fluid! And thx for coord DB!
The rest of the long term period actually looks very quiet, w/above to much above norm temps. A frontal passage right after the long term period may bring down our first shot of polar air of the season. In addition, some of the longer range guidance is showing hints of a full-scale pattern change around 10/18-24 or thereabouts, where we'd turn on a dime to wx more representative of late fall.
Circling back to the rest of the week, with no real wx going on, we'll just focus on temps.
Mon: Going a few deg under guidance, as I think it's cloudier than the NBM would suggest. Upper 60s statewide.
Tue: Same deal, but even so, we get to at least 70 across the state, maybe threaten 75 in the I 91 corridor?
Wed: Went close to guidance, as we should scour clouds out faster w/stronger flow aloft. Mid 70s statewide, maybe a few upper 70s in the I 91 corridor.
Thu: Close to guidance w/nothing sticking out to go against it. Low 70s statewide looks good.
Now, I will share w/u the Canadian and GFS models. The European model is a lot closer to the Canadian model, for a reference point.
Currently: High pressure covers the entire NE CONUS. Nothing going on and pleasantly warm temps for the time of yr.
Tonight: This is the kind of night that is the easiest for guidance temps- no significant advection, not great radiational conditions, and no precip. So for that reason, no need to complicate things and I'll go straight w/guidance. Lows should be 55-60 degrees, right in line w/temp guidance.
Tomorrow: End result fcst ends up being close to, but a touch lower, than temp guidance. Similar to today, we may start the day shrouded in low clouds and w/the lower sun angle, they'll take a few hrs to burn off. This could cut into daytime warming just a bit. Otherwise, still a nice day, w/highs of 70-75.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Models already begin to diverge here. Most models do not have any precip on Sat, while the GFS has light pcpn along the S coast. For now, I'll run w/a 30 POP, and not care about it too much, as any precip that does occur would be less than .05". At any rate, a backdoor cold front drops down Fri eve, and temps will be much cooler on Sat, along w/a stiff NE breeze. To compensate for NBM #s likely being in "catch up" mode, I have gone a few deg under guidance. Temps prob stay in the low 60s Sat!
Long Term (Sun and beyond): If you believe the GFS, Sun will be a good day to cut the grass. If you believe the Euro and GGEM models, Sun will at the very least be a dank and gloomy day and maybe even see heavy rain and localized flooding. Confidence is no higher than it was a week ago for this time period! The GGEM has trended wetter, the ECMWF has held its ground or got wetter, and the GFS has held its ground or gotten even further from a storm! A middle ground solution has trended a bit wetter. The GFS is usually really good when it is this locked in, but I can't ride a solution that is that far apart from the others, either. Putting all the factors together, I think Sun will at least be OVC and cool, w/at least a chance of some rain w/the highest chances along the S coast. POPs for Sun are 10-20% higher than I would have had them yesterday at this time, in the 50% range. As I usually do when clouds and precip are in the fcst, I subtracted a few deg off NBM guidance. This yields highs of 60-65 across the state, maybe a deg or two higher if/where it does not rain. Stay tuned for any updates from DB or I as this situation is fluid! And thx for coord DB!
The rest of the long term period actually looks very quiet, w/above to much above norm temps. A frontal passage right after the long term period may bring down our first shot of polar air of the season. In addition, some of the longer range guidance is showing hints of a full-scale pattern change around 10/18-24 or thereabouts, where we'd turn on a dime to wx more representative of late fall.
Circling back to the rest of the week, with no real wx going on, we'll just focus on temps.
Mon: Going a few deg under guidance, as I think it's cloudier than the NBM would suggest. Upper 60s statewide.
Tue: Same deal, but even so, we get to at least 70 across the state, maybe threaten 75 in the I 91 corridor?
Wed: Went close to guidance, as we should scour clouds out faster w/stronger flow aloft. Mid 70s statewide, maybe a few upper 70s in the I 91 corridor.
Thu: Close to guidance w/nothing sticking out to go against it. Low 70s statewide looks good.
Now, I will share w/u the Canadian and GFS models. The European model is a lot closer to the Canadian model, for a reference point.
As you can see, the two models do not even look like they are valid for the same week, but in reality, this is the exact same time, late Sun afternoon. Obviously, they are worlds' apart and the sensible wx here would be much different, depending on which one verified. Stay tuned!
That's all for now! See you next week, or I might drop in sooner if needed!
-GP!
That's all for now! See you next week, or I might drop in sooner if needed!
-GP!
