Disc: Yet another strong coastal low will affect the region in this highly anomalous pattern, but after that, we should see at least a more normal pattern.
Currently: High pressure from NC to Quebec has kept the area in fair weather today. Weak troughing stretching from the Great Lakes to SNJ has brought some clouds into the region, but radar is not picking up a drop of rain anywhere from that , so don't expect any precipitation.
Tonight: I think temperatures probably end up a degree or two lower than most guidance, but this is highly dependent on when skies clear. Generally, with weak troughs like this, skies tend to clear with sunset, so I'm betting on that happening. Therefore, I'll expect low temperatures generally in the chilly 35 to 40 degree range.
Tomorrow: With convective temperatures low on model soundings, clouds will once again form in the afternoon. Because of this, we'll once again see temperatures rise quickly and then level off after lunch. So expect high temperatures not too dissimilar to today- maybe a degree or two higher, generally in the 60 to 65 degree range.
Tomorrow Night/Thursday: After a clear, cool night tomorrow night, Thursday should see a bit more sun than the past two days, and temperatures should rise to the 60 to 65 degree range.
Long Term: The weekend and beyond: Clouds will increase on Friday, but most of the precipitation will stay SW of the state. I will be going lower than all forecasts had for temperatures from Friday through Sunday. With plenty of clouds and a deep marine flow setting up, expect high temperatures on Friday to only be 55-60.
A major Nor'Easter is then lurking from early Saturday morning to late Sunday night. Most models are now showing 2 to 5 inches of rain for the state. As far as winds go, Saturday's winds should not be impressive, but as the storm pulls away, winds should gust to 40 to 45 MPH on Sunday. It will also be quite chilly, with high temperatures struggling to reach 50 degrees on Saturday. This could challenge record low max temperatures for the day. On Sunday, temperatures rebound a little, but the wind may very well make it feel colder, with highs of 50 to 55.
Monday's forecast is low confidence. I am using a faster clearing solution, similar to what is shown on the GFS. The reasoning is that usually these storms tend to clear out a bit faster than progged. If it clears out, Monday should be a very nice day, with high temperatures near 70 degrees. Then as we head into Tuesday, it may get even a few degrees warmer, with ridging building in and high temperatures in the low 70s.
The long range looks fairly normal to me... more typical of what one can expect in May. Basically, you'll have above normal days, and below normal days, with cold frontal passages in between bringing showers and thunderstorms. Most of the modeling that was showing very warm weather in that time period is no longer doing so, and when it shows up it is at hour 300. A general rule is to ignore large scale pattern changes until they begin to "move up" in time. But the pattern will change to a more normal pattern, and not one of massive cutoff lows and a deep trough in the east, at least.
Now, let's take a look at the weekend weather system, in graphical format. First here is a model depiction valid late Saturday afternoon. Look at all the heavy rain over Connecticut and a lot more to come!
Currently: High pressure from NC to Quebec has kept the area in fair weather today. Weak troughing stretching from the Great Lakes to SNJ has brought some clouds into the region, but radar is not picking up a drop of rain anywhere from that , so don't expect any precipitation.
Tonight: I think temperatures probably end up a degree or two lower than most guidance, but this is highly dependent on when skies clear. Generally, with weak troughs like this, skies tend to clear with sunset, so I'm betting on that happening. Therefore, I'll expect low temperatures generally in the chilly 35 to 40 degree range.
Tomorrow: With convective temperatures low on model soundings, clouds will once again form in the afternoon. Because of this, we'll once again see temperatures rise quickly and then level off after lunch. So expect high temperatures not too dissimilar to today- maybe a degree or two higher, generally in the 60 to 65 degree range.
Tomorrow Night/Thursday: After a clear, cool night tomorrow night, Thursday should see a bit more sun than the past two days, and temperatures should rise to the 60 to 65 degree range.
Long Term: The weekend and beyond: Clouds will increase on Friday, but most of the precipitation will stay SW of the state. I will be going lower than all forecasts had for temperatures from Friday through Sunday. With plenty of clouds and a deep marine flow setting up, expect high temperatures on Friday to only be 55-60.
A major Nor'Easter is then lurking from early Saturday morning to late Sunday night. Most models are now showing 2 to 5 inches of rain for the state. As far as winds go, Saturday's winds should not be impressive, but as the storm pulls away, winds should gust to 40 to 45 MPH on Sunday. It will also be quite chilly, with high temperatures struggling to reach 50 degrees on Saturday. This could challenge record low max temperatures for the day. On Sunday, temperatures rebound a little, but the wind may very well make it feel colder, with highs of 50 to 55.
Monday's forecast is low confidence. I am using a faster clearing solution, similar to what is shown on the GFS. The reasoning is that usually these storms tend to clear out a bit faster than progged. If it clears out, Monday should be a very nice day, with high temperatures near 70 degrees. Then as we head into Tuesday, it may get even a few degrees warmer, with ridging building in and high temperatures in the low 70s.
The long range looks fairly normal to me... more typical of what one can expect in May. Basically, you'll have above normal days, and below normal days, with cold frontal passages in between bringing showers and thunderstorms. Most of the modeling that was showing very warm weather in that time period is no longer doing so, and when it shows up it is at hour 300. A general rule is to ignore large scale pattern changes until they begin to "move up" in time. But the pattern will change to a more normal pattern, and not one of massive cutoff lows and a deep trough in the east, at least.
Now, let's take a look at the weekend weather system, in graphical format. First here is a model depiction valid late Saturday afternoon. Look at all the heavy rain over Connecticut and a lot more to come!
Finally, let's take a look at total expected precipitation, by Sunday night, when the storm is over. You ca see Connecticut is in the 2-3" shade, with possibly more near the SW tip of the state. Needless to say, this has the potential to be a big storm!
Anyway, that's all for now! Enjoy the rest of your week!
-GP!
-GP!
