Good evening and happy new year from Southern Connecticut Weather!
2023 was odd weather wise. There was virtually no winter but historic cold in early February, no tropical systems but one of the wettest years on record, and a historically warm year overall. That carried into December, and despite some early optimism the month ended up being the second warmest on record and one of the wettest Decembers on record.
That led to a lot of people being on the brink of canceling winter 2023-24. There was no reason to.
On Christmas Day, I talked about a potential major pattern change that would open the window for wintry chances, and as we start 2024 the pattern change is here. The first week of 2024 brings our first legitimate chance of measurable snow. Let's dive in.
2023 was odd weather wise. There was virtually no winter but historic cold in early February, no tropical systems but one of the wettest years on record, and a historically warm year overall. That carried into December, and despite some early optimism the month ended up being the second warmest on record and one of the wettest Decembers on record.
That led to a lot of people being on the brink of canceling winter 2023-24. There was no reason to.
On Christmas Day, I talked about a potential major pattern change that would open the window for wintry chances, and as we start 2024 the pattern change is here. The first week of 2024 brings our first legitimate chance of measurable snow. Let's dive in.
Above: the 12z European Ensemble (EPS) showing the pattern change and a significant winter storm traversing the country this week. After, cold filters into much of the continental US, a complete change from December.
Before diving into the forecast, let's level set with data from the official reporting stations on what January usually produces. As I mentioned on Christmas, it will take time for Canada to get colder, but by the end of this week, it looks like we are much closer to normal due to the changed pattern.
Hartford (BDL) January Normals
January 1 Average High Temperature: 37
January 1 Average Low Temperature: 21
January 15 Average High Temperature: 35
January 15 Average Low Temperature: 19
January 31 Average High Temperature: 36
January 31 Average High Temperature: 18
January Snowfall: 14.2"
January Precipitation: 3.28"
Bridgeport (BDR) January Normals
January 1 Average High Temperature: 40
January 1 Average Low Temperature: 26
January 15 Average High Temperature: 38
January 15 Average Low Temperature: 24
January 31 Average High Temperature: 38
January 31 Average High Temperature: 24
January Snowfall: 8.5"
January Precipitation: 3.18"
Now to the forecast.
Tuesday-Wednesday
The first days of the work week are quiet and colder, with temperatures still above normal but nothing like December's warmth. Expect more sunshine with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. We will see increasing clouds later on Wednesday as our first storm system approaches.
Thursday
Our first system arrives Thursday and may bring our first minor measurable snow event of the year. Winter lovers, expectations should be very low for this, as a system to our south is expected to stay well offshore. Rather than phase with a northern jet stream ripple, these stay separate over our region, allowing the southern storm to pass harmlessly out to sea.
However, some guidance shows that there's enough moisture available to allow for rain/snow showers early Thursday. If this happens earlier we could see a brief period of light snow. If the timing is later, rain showers. Either way, it looks like it's light and brief, but obviously even a coating would be a departure from our snowless December.
Despite what falls from the sky, Thursday's system is critical. It not only draws in the cold air that brings us to seasonably cold to below normal temperatures, but sets the stage for what is increasingly looking like a significant winter storm for somebody this coming weekend.
Before diving into the forecast, let's level set with data from the official reporting stations on what January usually produces. As I mentioned on Christmas, it will take time for Canada to get colder, but by the end of this week, it looks like we are much closer to normal due to the changed pattern.
Hartford (BDL) January Normals
January 1 Average High Temperature: 37
January 1 Average Low Temperature: 21
January 15 Average High Temperature: 35
January 15 Average Low Temperature: 19
January 31 Average High Temperature: 36
January 31 Average High Temperature: 18
January Snowfall: 14.2"
January Precipitation: 3.28"
Bridgeport (BDR) January Normals
January 1 Average High Temperature: 40
January 1 Average Low Temperature: 26
January 15 Average High Temperature: 38
January 15 Average Low Temperature: 24
January 31 Average High Temperature: 38
January 31 Average High Temperature: 24
January Snowfall: 8.5"
January Precipitation: 3.18"
Now to the forecast.
Tuesday-Wednesday
The first days of the work week are quiet and colder, with temperatures still above normal but nothing like December's warmth. Expect more sunshine with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. We will see increasing clouds later on Wednesday as our first storm system approaches.
Thursday
Our first system arrives Thursday and may bring our first minor measurable snow event of the year. Winter lovers, expectations should be very low for this, as a system to our south is expected to stay well offshore. Rather than phase with a northern jet stream ripple, these stay separate over our region, allowing the southern storm to pass harmlessly out to sea.
However, some guidance shows that there's enough moisture available to allow for rain/snow showers early Thursday. If this happens earlier we could see a brief period of light snow. If the timing is later, rain showers. Either way, it looks like it's light and brief, but obviously even a coating would be a departure from our snowless December.
Despite what falls from the sky, Thursday's system is critical. It not only draws in the cold air that brings us to seasonably cold to below normal temperatures, but sets the stage for what is increasingly looking like a significant winter storm for somebody this coming weekend.
Above: the 18z GFS showing the surface depiction for this Thursday. Note how far away the southern system is, and how it becomes a powerful low after it passes the region. There's a very brief period of light rain verbatim on Thursday because it's afternoon. On the Euro is brief snow because it's much earlier on Thursday. This one will miss, but it sets up the following storm.
Friday-Saturday
As mentioned earlier, in the wake of Thursday's storm, colder and more seasonable air finally arrives. This period should have highs in the 30s with more seasonable lows as well. Things should be sunny and quiet, as we watch Sunday.
As mentioned earlier, in the wake of Thursday's storm, colder and more seasonable air finally arrives. This period should have highs in the 30s with more seasonable lows as well. Things should be sunny and quiet, as we watch Sunday.
Sunday-Monday
This is the period to watch closely. There is a strong cross guidance signal that a significant storm will traverse the country and spawn a low in the south. As that starts to come north, a cold high pressure (in the wake of the Thursday low) develops. That's a good setup for frozen even down to the coastline.
However, at this range, there is typical waffling on how far north this storm gets. The timing of development (when the storm is strongest) and track itself is complex. A track much closer introducing mixing, or a further offshore track bringing nothing but cirrus clouds are on the table.
My initial lean is that there's enough on ensemble guidance to introduce inland snow and coastal mixing/snow into the forecast. Stay tuned. Here's the depiction from the major models today on what next Sunday could look like. This is just for illustrative purposes. This is likely to change but the storm progression looks synoptically feasible.
18z GFS (which had this out to sea early afternoon) depicts a storm that effectively gets blocked from coming too far north by the cold high, but it gets far enough to bring a modest snowfall to the entire state.
This is the period to watch closely. There is a strong cross guidance signal that a significant storm will traverse the country and spawn a low in the south. As that starts to come north, a cold high pressure (in the wake of the Thursday low) develops. That's a good setup for frozen even down to the coastline.
However, at this range, there is typical waffling on how far north this storm gets. The timing of development (when the storm is strongest) and track itself is complex. A track much closer introducing mixing, or a further offshore track bringing nothing but cirrus clouds are on the table.
My initial lean is that there's enough on ensemble guidance to introduce inland snow and coastal mixing/snow into the forecast. Stay tuned. Here's the depiction from the major models today on what next Sunday could look like. This is just for illustrative purposes. This is likely to change but the storm progression looks synoptically feasible.
18z GFS (which had this out to sea early afternoon) depicts a storm that effectively gets blocked from coming too far north by the cold high, but it gets far enough to bring a modest snowfall to the entire state.
12z Canadian shows what happens if there's less high pressure influence, driving the center of the surface low over Connecticut and bringing snow changing to rain.
12z Euro is a compromise of the two and shows a low that brings a significant winter storm from DC to Maine. Image courtesy of Pivotal Weather.
As I said, stay tuned. This one has some potential to be a significant one for someone on the east coast.
Monday
In the wake of whatever happens Sunday, I expect a cold and dry day.
The Dailies
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny early with increasing clouds. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain/snow showers early. Chance of precipitation 20%.
Friday: Mostly sunny and colder. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with snow inland and snow/mix at the coast. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Monday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Monday
In the wake of whatever happens Sunday, I expect a cold and dry day.
The Dailies
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny early with increasing clouds. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain/snow showers early. Chance of precipitation 20%.
Friday: Mostly sunny and colder. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with snow inland and snow/mix at the coast. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Monday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
