Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
What a difference a pattern change makes. The last three months we struggled to get any rain. Now, we are looking at two additional chances for precipitation in the next week after our most recent storm finally broke through our remarkably persistent dry pattern.
The week ahead is an important one as it's one of the most travel-heavy weeks of the year, and it will feature a modest rain chance Tuesday, a potential storm Thanksgiving and/or the day after, and then the second phase of this major pattern change--a strong shot of cold driven by the ongoing upper level shift in the hemisphere.
What a difference a pattern change makes. The last three months we struggled to get any rain. Now, we are looking at two additional chances for precipitation in the next week after our most recent storm finally broke through our remarkably persistent dry pattern.
The week ahead is an important one as it's one of the most travel-heavy weeks of the year, and it will feature a modest rain chance Tuesday, a potential storm Thanksgiving and/or the day after, and then the second phase of this major pattern change--a strong shot of cold driven by the ongoing upper level shift in the hemisphere.
Monday
Tomorrow is seasonable, sunny, and dry. Our storm continuing to move away from the region means that it should be another breezy day, but not as bad as today.
Clouds will increase tomorrow night as our first system advances toward the region.
Tuesday-Wednesday
A modest system will move to our north on Tuesday, and it should bring a period of rain. It's currently timed to make most of Tuesday a damp and overcast day, even though we're not expecting a lot of rain. Less than a half inch of rain is expected, but we will take whatever we can get.
Tomorrow is seasonable, sunny, and dry. Our storm continuing to move away from the region means that it should be another breezy day, but not as bad as today.
Clouds will increase tomorrow night as our first system advances toward the region.
Tuesday-Wednesday
A modest system will move to our north on Tuesday, and it should bring a period of rain. It's currently timed to make most of Tuesday a damp and overcast day, even though we're not expecting a lot of rain. Less than a half inch of rain is expected, but we will take whatever we can get.
Above: a GFS depiction of the fast moving system. We are likely drying out by late afternoon Tuesday.
Tuesday's storm passage brings a boundary through the region, which means Tuesday night should be chilly and Wednesday will be a little colder. The day looks sunny and dry however, with increasing clouds again late in advance of the next storm system.
Tuesday's storm passage brings a boundary through the region, which means Tuesday night should be chilly and Wednesday will be a little colder. The day looks sunny and dry however, with increasing clouds again late in advance of the next storm system.
Thanksgiving Day & Friday
This is our first SCW Period of Interest of the fall season. We declare these periods because there is a greater than usual chance of impactful weather. It's basically a "pay closer attention" notice during the fall and winter months.
There was a lot of social media chatter about a big snowstorm for Thanksgiving, but for CT, even late November is not a climatologically favorable period for big snowstorms. There is high uncertainty about this period, because the pattern is still evolving. There are questions about how much antecedent cold will be available in the wake of Tuesday's system, and how the mid/upper levels amplify and steer a storm. There is guidance that keeps the entire storm to our south, guidance that brings snow (hill towns) changing to rain, and guidance that brings all rain. That's why we were quiet on the storm generally. There was no sense in saying much when was nothing meaningful to say.
Here's what I think right now:
1) I do think that there will be a storm, and I am discounting the total whiff scenario. I think this storm will not be so weak and strung out that it misses to the south.
2) In terms of timing, it does look like this is an actual Thanksgiving Day system, so plan accordingly. This means Friday is more likely to be dry and much colder, but how long the storm lasts will also depend on how it evolves.
3) For now, this looks like a mostly rain event. Before, which may have tricked the models, it looked like the antecedent airmass was plenty cold for snow for most inland spots. However, we see this from time to time--particularly in the last few years--where the extent of cold is overestimated in the absence of a high to the north locking cold in. That said, there is still time for this to trend warmer or colder. It probably wouldn't take much for the hill towns, particularly in NW CT, to end up with a cold enough solution for some snowfall or mixed precipitation.
For the rest of us, we would need substantial changes in how upper level temperatures evolve to have a chance at accumulating snow. Whether it snows or not aside, it does look like this could be another storm with meaningful rainfall, which would impact travel on Thanksgiving Day. Stay tuned.
This is our first SCW Period of Interest of the fall season. We declare these periods because there is a greater than usual chance of impactful weather. It's basically a "pay closer attention" notice during the fall and winter months.
There was a lot of social media chatter about a big snowstorm for Thanksgiving, but for CT, even late November is not a climatologically favorable period for big snowstorms. There is high uncertainty about this period, because the pattern is still evolving. There are questions about how much antecedent cold will be available in the wake of Tuesday's system, and how the mid/upper levels amplify and steer a storm. There is guidance that keeps the entire storm to our south, guidance that brings snow (hill towns) changing to rain, and guidance that brings all rain. That's why we were quiet on the storm generally. There was no sense in saying much when was nothing meaningful to say.
Here's what I think right now:
1) I do think that there will be a storm, and I am discounting the total whiff scenario. I think this storm will not be so weak and strung out that it misses to the south.
2) In terms of timing, it does look like this is an actual Thanksgiving Day system, so plan accordingly. This means Friday is more likely to be dry and much colder, but how long the storm lasts will also depend on how it evolves.
3) For now, this looks like a mostly rain event. Before, which may have tricked the models, it looked like the antecedent airmass was plenty cold for snow for most inland spots. However, we see this from time to time--particularly in the last few years--where the extent of cold is overestimated in the absence of a high to the north locking cold in. That said, there is still time for this to trend warmer or colder. It probably wouldn't take much for the hill towns, particularly in NW CT, to end up with a cold enough solution for some snowfall or mixed precipitation.
For the rest of us, we would need substantial changes in how upper level temperatures evolve to have a chance at accumulating snow. Whether it snows or not aside, it does look like this could be another storm with meaningful rainfall, which would impact travel on Thanksgiving Day. Stay tuned.
Above: 18z GFS. It has bounced around a lot between a whiff and rain event.
Above: the 12z Canadian. This has a significant and longer duration rain event.
Above: the 12z European depicting a snow to rain event in the NW hills and rain elsewhere.
The one key thing consistent across guidance--the cold afterward.
The one key thing consistent across guidance--the cold afterward.
Saturday-Sunday
The weekend looks cold. In the wake of the storm we will see the winter-like cold arrive and it will feel like a switch has been flipped, even though the week isn't likely to be particularly warm. If the Lake Effect machine gets going, there will be a chance of snow showers, especially in NW CT.
Afterward, the start of meteorological winter looks cold. Whether that translates into snow or just another way to fail at delivering a more normal December remains to be seen.
The weekend looks cold. In the wake of the storm we will see the winter-like cold arrive and it will feel like a switch has been flipped, even though the week isn't likely to be particularly warm. If the Lake Effect machine gets going, there will be a chance of snow showers, especially in NW CT.
Afterward, the start of meteorological winter looks cold. Whether that translates into snow or just another way to fail at delivering a more normal December remains to be seen.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and slightly warmer. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 80%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cool. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain, possibly heavy at times. Possibility of snow or mixed precipitation changing to rain in the NW hills. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of rain 70%. Chance of snow in the hills 30%.
Friday: Decreasing clouds, colder, and breezy. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of precipitation 20%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of snow showers 10%.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of snow showers 10%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Monday: Mostly sunny and slightly warmer. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 80%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cool. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain, possibly heavy at times. Possibility of snow or mixed precipitation changing to rain in the NW hills. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of rain 70%. Chance of snow in the hills 30%.
Friday: Decreasing clouds, colder, and breezy. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of precipitation 20%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of snow showers 10%.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of snow showers 10%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
