Disc: Evidence is mounting that a major storm system will affect the state Sunday and Sunday night. Exact details still have to be worked out.
Currently: Low pressure centered near Groton is still producing some showers, clouds, and windy conditions across the state. This low will lift out tonight, allowing skies to clear.
Tonight: With clear skies and temperatures starting from a lower point than most guidance had them, I;ll go under guidance on temperatures. Looks like lows statewide should range from the mid 30s to the low 40s.
Tomorrow: Sunshine and a nice crisp fall day. General highs in the mid 60s, give or take a few degrees- cooler in the NW Hills, warmer in the CT Valley/I 91 corridor. With clear skies and dry conditions, temperatures should be near or just above guidance.
Tomorrow Night/Saturday: Continued nice weather, with an increase in clouds later Saturday, especially in the SW. Although the air mass is warmer on Saturday, increasing clouds and a deep-layer marine flow will keep the temperatures similar to levels of Friday.
Now for the Sunday-early Monday event, which will be separated from the rest of the long term:
A stalling cold front with a rapidly developing low pressure system along it will combine forces with at least the moisture feed (and possibly more) from a tropical wave, currently located near the coast of Nicaragua. That system is beginning to eject and will move rapidly N/NE, possibly right in time to connect with the frontal system.
Impacts: Light overrunning rain will overspread the state late Saturday night and early Sunday morning and become more showery and maybe even stop for a time Sunday morning. Steadier and much heavier rain will arrive by midday Sunday west and mid afternoon east. Rain will then fall heavy or very heavy at times the rest of the day Sunday and begin tapering off around midnight Sunday night west and in the predawn hours East. Showers will linger for about 6 to 9 hours after that.
Rainfall totals of at least 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts are possible. At this point, it is still impossible to pinpoint who will get the heaviest totals and if they will fall in our state. But it will rain, and a lot.
Wind gusts to 40-50 MPH are likely, just using the most conservative solutions. For now, I'll go with this, because winds are not the easiest thing to predict and it is a lot more prudent to start low and go higher with time than to hype, send everyone into a panic, and then lower expectations. Needless to say, even the winds I am forecasting could produce some damage... higher than that and we'd be talking power outages and possible destruction.
Stay tuned to SCW for updates on this potential strong, memorable storm.
Further out into the long term: Tuesday and Wednesday look fair with at or below normal temperatures, with highs around 60 Tuesday and in the mid 50s Wednesday. Halloween night will be rather chilly for Trick or Treaters, and most of the state could see at or below freezing temperatures Wednesday morning! A cold front will combine with some overrunning moisture and produce mostly light rain for the area later Wednesday into Thursday morning. High temperatures statewide should be within a few degrees of 60. Cooler weather would be expected thereafter.
The long range looks to continue to see its ups and downs with regards to temperature. Something that is not to atypical for this time of year, we should see a battle of two ridges: one near Alaska and one over the Southeastern United States. The former typically brings cold air our way, while the latter would bring warm air. As time progresses, if the Alaskan Ridge stays intact, it generally tends to win that battle as we head into winter. Some model guidance wants to bring the first accumulating snow to the state November 5 to 6, but this is too far out to do anything but just look at for now.
Now, let's take a look at some weather systems to affect our area this upcoming week. I'll show you a map of Sunday's system and then a map of the Thursday morning frontal passage. This map is the GFS version of the system and this is probably the weakest piece of guidance available right now! Even with that being said, look at how strong the low is right over Hartford. Also look at the tropical moisture available!
Currently: Low pressure centered near Groton is still producing some showers, clouds, and windy conditions across the state. This low will lift out tonight, allowing skies to clear.
Tonight: With clear skies and temperatures starting from a lower point than most guidance had them, I;ll go under guidance on temperatures. Looks like lows statewide should range from the mid 30s to the low 40s.
Tomorrow: Sunshine and a nice crisp fall day. General highs in the mid 60s, give or take a few degrees- cooler in the NW Hills, warmer in the CT Valley/I 91 corridor. With clear skies and dry conditions, temperatures should be near or just above guidance.
Tomorrow Night/Saturday: Continued nice weather, with an increase in clouds later Saturday, especially in the SW. Although the air mass is warmer on Saturday, increasing clouds and a deep-layer marine flow will keep the temperatures similar to levels of Friday.
Now for the Sunday-early Monday event, which will be separated from the rest of the long term:
A stalling cold front with a rapidly developing low pressure system along it will combine forces with at least the moisture feed (and possibly more) from a tropical wave, currently located near the coast of Nicaragua. That system is beginning to eject and will move rapidly N/NE, possibly right in time to connect with the frontal system.
Impacts: Light overrunning rain will overspread the state late Saturday night and early Sunday morning and become more showery and maybe even stop for a time Sunday morning. Steadier and much heavier rain will arrive by midday Sunday west and mid afternoon east. Rain will then fall heavy or very heavy at times the rest of the day Sunday and begin tapering off around midnight Sunday night west and in the predawn hours East. Showers will linger for about 6 to 9 hours after that.
Rainfall totals of at least 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts are possible. At this point, it is still impossible to pinpoint who will get the heaviest totals and if they will fall in our state. But it will rain, and a lot.
Wind gusts to 40-50 MPH are likely, just using the most conservative solutions. For now, I'll go with this, because winds are not the easiest thing to predict and it is a lot more prudent to start low and go higher with time than to hype, send everyone into a panic, and then lower expectations. Needless to say, even the winds I am forecasting could produce some damage... higher than that and we'd be talking power outages and possible destruction.
Stay tuned to SCW for updates on this potential strong, memorable storm.
Further out into the long term: Tuesday and Wednesday look fair with at or below normal temperatures, with highs around 60 Tuesday and in the mid 50s Wednesday. Halloween night will be rather chilly for Trick or Treaters, and most of the state could see at or below freezing temperatures Wednesday morning! A cold front will combine with some overrunning moisture and produce mostly light rain for the area later Wednesday into Thursday morning. High temperatures statewide should be within a few degrees of 60. Cooler weather would be expected thereafter.
The long range looks to continue to see its ups and downs with regards to temperature. Something that is not to atypical for this time of year, we should see a battle of two ridges: one near Alaska and one over the Southeastern United States. The former typically brings cold air our way, while the latter would bring warm air. As time progresses, if the Alaskan Ridge stays intact, it generally tends to win that battle as we head into winter. Some model guidance wants to bring the first accumulating snow to the state November 5 to 6, but this is too far out to do anything but just look at for now.
Now, let's take a look at some weather systems to affect our area this upcoming week. I'll show you a map of Sunday's system and then a map of the Thursday morning frontal passage. This map is the GFS version of the system and this is probably the weakest piece of guidance available right now! Even with that being said, look at how strong the low is right over Hartford. Also look at the tropical moisture available!
Finally, let's take a look at the minor system for later Wednesday into Thursday. On this map, we can see the light rain associated with a cold front and overrunning precipitation. It is not a significant event, but should provide a period of light, steady rain to the area.
That's all for now! Have a great rest of your week and weekend!
-GP!
-GP!
