A series of waves of low pressure will keep periods of rain over the state. In addition, high pressure locked in over SE Canada is keeping a chilly, NE wind flow across the area, thus keeping temperatures down.
For tonight, it should be generally dry, as we're in between waves, and there really isn't any mechanism to generate measurable precipitation. However, drizzle and fog are possible along the immediate coast and also in sheltered valleys. Low temperatures should range 40-45 in the north, to 45-50 in the south.
For tomorrow, the state will be on the fringes of a wave passing to the south. I do think measurable rain will fall in much of the state, however. Rain is most likely in the afternoon and evening, and the best chance for a period of steady rain would be in the southern half of the state. High temperatures look to be only in the low to mid 50s. There is a chance that areas that see steadier rain may not get out of the 40s.
For tomorrow night into Thursday, the forecast becomes a bit more muddled, as a cutoff low slowly approaches to our south. For now, I'll keep the steadier, measurable rain out of the forecast for these two periods, though it will be cloudy and chilly with a stiff Northeast wind. Even though I'm not forecasting widespread measurable rain, light rain and drizzle will be likely and a popup shower is possible any place at any time. For temperatures, figure highs in the upper 50s.
In the longer term, this cutoff low will make its closest approach on Friday. Therefore, I think that is the state's best shot at an all-day rain. It may not be particularly heavy, but there will probably be a steady light to moderate rain all day. High temperatures should be in the 55-60 degree range.
On Saturday, the cutoff low begins to pull away. Even so, it will still throw some showers at our area. Although it won't rain all day, there will be periods of showers, and any sun that does poke through the clouds will act to quickly destabilize the atmosphere and set off more showers. High temperatures should be in the mid 60s.
For Sunday, there should at least be a period of sun. A cold front approaches and this should help kick the cutoff low out. However, the cold front will likely be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. So maybe some sun to start, then a round of potentially heavy showers. The timing should be late morning to early afternoon in the southwest, and mid to late afternoon in the northeast. High temperatures should be in the mid 60s, but this is a very low-confidence temperature forecast, because it depends on the timing of the frontal rains.
As ridging finally begins to move into the region, Monday and Tuesday should feature fair skies and warming temperatures. Highs should be in the mid to upper 60s on Monday and 70-75 on Tuesday. Beyond that time, a strong cold front likely approaches on Wednesday. With a warm air mass in place and a strong front approaching, it looks like a pretty decent setup for strong to severe thunderstorms, although I am not in the business of forecasting severe thunderstorms on day eight. What I will say is that after that frontal passage, a return to below normal temperatures looks to be in store.
Now, here is a look at the upcoming weather graphically.
This image shows the wave passing to our south and brushing the area tomorrow.
For tonight, it should be generally dry, as we're in between waves, and there really isn't any mechanism to generate measurable precipitation. However, drizzle and fog are possible along the immediate coast and also in sheltered valleys. Low temperatures should range 40-45 in the north, to 45-50 in the south.
For tomorrow, the state will be on the fringes of a wave passing to the south. I do think measurable rain will fall in much of the state, however. Rain is most likely in the afternoon and evening, and the best chance for a period of steady rain would be in the southern half of the state. High temperatures look to be only in the low to mid 50s. There is a chance that areas that see steadier rain may not get out of the 40s.
For tomorrow night into Thursday, the forecast becomes a bit more muddled, as a cutoff low slowly approaches to our south. For now, I'll keep the steadier, measurable rain out of the forecast for these two periods, though it will be cloudy and chilly with a stiff Northeast wind. Even though I'm not forecasting widespread measurable rain, light rain and drizzle will be likely and a popup shower is possible any place at any time. For temperatures, figure highs in the upper 50s.
In the longer term, this cutoff low will make its closest approach on Friday. Therefore, I think that is the state's best shot at an all-day rain. It may not be particularly heavy, but there will probably be a steady light to moderate rain all day. High temperatures should be in the 55-60 degree range.
On Saturday, the cutoff low begins to pull away. Even so, it will still throw some showers at our area. Although it won't rain all day, there will be periods of showers, and any sun that does poke through the clouds will act to quickly destabilize the atmosphere and set off more showers. High temperatures should be in the mid 60s.
For Sunday, there should at least be a period of sun. A cold front approaches and this should help kick the cutoff low out. However, the cold front will likely be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. So maybe some sun to start, then a round of potentially heavy showers. The timing should be late morning to early afternoon in the southwest, and mid to late afternoon in the northeast. High temperatures should be in the mid 60s, but this is a very low-confidence temperature forecast, because it depends on the timing of the frontal rains.
As ridging finally begins to move into the region, Monday and Tuesday should feature fair skies and warming temperatures. Highs should be in the mid to upper 60s on Monday and 70-75 on Tuesday. Beyond that time, a strong cold front likely approaches on Wednesday. With a warm air mass in place and a strong front approaching, it looks like a pretty decent setup for strong to severe thunderstorms, although I am not in the business of forecasting severe thunderstorms on day eight. What I will say is that after that frontal passage, a return to below normal temperatures looks to be in store.
Now, here is a look at the upcoming weather graphically.
This image shows the wave passing to our south and brushing the area tomorrow.
Although the red "L" is over Northern Ohio, this is just a representation of the lowest surface pressures. There are no isobars around that low center, so it's not technically much of a low. Judging from the isobar pressure surfaces, the low is forming somewhere over the Atlantic Ocean. You can see that while the entire state does get rain, most of it is light. The heaviest rain is over the higher elevations in the western half of the state.
Next, here is a map showing the cutoff low system for Friday.
Next, here is a map showing the cutoff low system for Friday.
This is a "real" low center, as you can see the closed isobar around the low center. You can see the low is over Delaware, and the heaviest precip is to the north and west of the low center, and well to the southwest of the area. It should be noted, however, that models are notoriously bad with forecasting just about every facet with cutoff lows, from strength, to timing, to location, to precipitation orientation. So take this with a couple grains of salt!
That's all for now! Enjoy your week!
GP!
That's all for now! Enjoy your week!
GP!
