Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Winter gave us its best shot in February, but still failed to deliver enough snowfall to bring us within striking distance of a normal snowfall winter. Although it felt cold in February with several Arctic blasts, temperatures actually finished within a degree of normal--another reminder that we've had some real blowtorch winters recently that have altered our perspective of what a normal winter actually is.
Every year is different. Sometimes winter doesn't arrive, while other winters loosen their grip early or late. No matter what however, at some point we begin a march toward (sustained) spring in our sensible weather. Although sustained spring is not quite on the horizon, we've reached the point where we can now say that the worst of winter is over, and we are marching toward spring.
Winter gave us its best shot in February, but still failed to deliver enough snowfall to bring us within striking distance of a normal snowfall winter. Although it felt cold in February with several Arctic blasts, temperatures actually finished within a degree of normal--another reminder that we've had some real blowtorch winters recently that have altered our perspective of what a normal winter actually is.
Every year is different. Sometimes winter doesn't arrive, while other winters loosen their grip early or late. No matter what however, at some point we begin a march toward (sustained) spring in our sensible weather. Although sustained spring is not quite on the horizon, we've reached the point where we can now say that the worst of winter is over, and we are marching toward spring.
Above: the 12z European ensemble showing temperature anomalies at the surface over the forecast period. Although we're much colder than normal tomorrow, we quickly rebound back to warmer conditions for most of the week until another cold shot next weekend.
Monday
Keep in mind that at this point in March the average high and low in Hartford (BDL) is 43/25, while at Bridgeport it is 44/29.
March is a month where we see significant gains in daylight and average temperatures, and while a well timed shot of cold could easily bring snow in any part of the month, by March 15 the average high and low is 47/28 at Hartford and 47/32 at Bridgeport while the last day of March averages 53/33 at Hartford and 52/37 at Bridgeport.
There will be no warmth on Monday. Our brief Arctic shot gradually eases, and some inland areas could be below freezing again after a very cold morning start for this time of year. At least it will be sunny with a slight breeze.
Tuesday
Tuesday will return us to a warmer than normal regime, with temperatures rebounding into the upper 40s. It'll also be a sunny day, so it should be enjoyable. The quiet weather ends here, as a significant storm develops and cuts well to our west on Wednesday. Tuesday night looks dry at this time.
Wednesday-Thursday
Our midweek storm should arrive by Wednesday morning, and while it will be warm, it will be windy. I expect some wind advisories for Wednesday and perhaps Thursday, but I'm not expecting major winds in the whole scheme of things. As a result, I am not expecting significant power outages at this time.
The bulk of the rain looks to be Wednesday afternoon and evening, though some rain showers are also possible early Thursday. Wednesday and Thursday should have highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Monday
Keep in mind that at this point in March the average high and low in Hartford (BDL) is 43/25, while at Bridgeport it is 44/29.
March is a month where we see significant gains in daylight and average temperatures, and while a well timed shot of cold could easily bring snow in any part of the month, by March 15 the average high and low is 47/28 at Hartford and 47/32 at Bridgeport while the last day of March averages 53/33 at Hartford and 52/37 at Bridgeport.
There will be no warmth on Monday. Our brief Arctic shot gradually eases, and some inland areas could be below freezing again after a very cold morning start for this time of year. At least it will be sunny with a slight breeze.
Tuesday
Tuesday will return us to a warmer than normal regime, with temperatures rebounding into the upper 40s. It'll also be a sunny day, so it should be enjoyable. The quiet weather ends here, as a significant storm develops and cuts well to our west on Wednesday. Tuesday night looks dry at this time.
Wednesday-Thursday
Our midweek storm should arrive by Wednesday morning, and while it will be warm, it will be windy. I expect some wind advisories for Wednesday and perhaps Thursday, but I'm not expecting major winds in the whole scheme of things. As a result, I am not expecting significant power outages at this time.
The bulk of the rain looks to be Wednesday afternoon and evening, though some rain showers are also possible early Thursday. Wednesday and Thursday should have highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Above: 18z Euro depicting the storm passing on Wednesday-Thursday. Rain will be heavy at times.
Friday-Sunday
The end of the week looks quieter, with Friday a touch cooler but more sunny (it may get windy in the wake of the storm, however) and the weekend bringing the chance of more precipitation on Saturday as a weak system moves through the region.
There may be enough cold air for some snowflakes to fly in addition to the rain in northern CT, but for now I will just have rain chances. Temperatures look near normal Friday and Saturday, with Sunday likely a bit colder. Longer term, we're probably dealing with seesawing temperatures and modestly active conditions until about mid-March when it looks like we start seeing some more consistent warmth. Warmth is relative, folks. I don't think 70s and 80s (which would be well above normal this time of year) are marching through the door yet.
Friday-Sunday
The end of the week looks quieter, with Friday a touch cooler but more sunny (it may get windy in the wake of the storm, however) and the weekend bringing the chance of more precipitation on Saturday as a weak system moves through the region.
There may be enough cold air for some snowflakes to fly in addition to the rain in northern CT, but for now I will just have rain chances. Temperatures look near normal Friday and Saturday, with Sunday likely a bit colder. Longer term, we're probably dealing with seesawing temperatures and modestly active conditions until about mid-March when it looks like we start seeing some more consistent warmth. Warmth is relative, folks. I don't think 70s and 80s (which would be well above normal this time of year) are marching through the door yet.
Above: the GFS depiction of a weak system moving through the region Saturday. The track is too far north to bring much, if any, wintry precipitation, but if there is a further south track some snow would be possible.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with rain, heavy at times. Windy. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 90%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy early with rain showers. Breezy. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 50%.
Friday: Mostly sunny and cooler. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of snow showers 10%.
Saturday: Partly sunny with rain showers. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of rain 40%.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and seasonably chilly. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with rain, heavy at times. Windy. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 90%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy early with rain showers. Breezy. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 50%.
Friday: Mostly sunny and cooler. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of snow showers 10%.
Saturday: Partly sunny with rain showers. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of rain 40%.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and seasonably chilly. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
