Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
For now, the cold has eased...some. To date, the Hartford area is in the midst of its 16th coldest winter on record, and the coldest since 1994. Bridgeport has its 14th coldest winter on record, and coldest since 2011 (which was 11th all time at this date).
Brrr.
We've finally pulled out of the repeated Arctic blasts, as the hemispheric pattern now places the deepest cold thousands of miles away in northwest Canada and the Arctic, rather than just to our northwest. For those tired of the cold, this is obviously a welcome development, but there's more to unpack with this current thaw. Although warmer, it's not like we're breaking any warm records, and once again a modeled push of warmth--remember when we expected 50 degree temperatures--has fallen back to the "tenor" of the season with no true warmth.
The second thing that this thaw does is open the door to a more active pattern. With deep Arctic cold and ample blocking, it was hard to get a coastal storm to pop and ride along the coast, as the Arctic press more often than not suppressed whatever was trying to develop. With a modified pattern now the battle zone between warmth and cold is once again nearby, and as several waves this week try to move our way we have multiple chances for precipitation of all types--rain, ice, and snow. This also fits climatology. We're now out of the coldest part of the season historically speaking, and as we continue to gain daylight and the sun angle increases it will be harder, but not impossible, to get mostly unmodified Arctic air.
So while it looks like the deepest cold is done in Connecticut aside from a rogue quick blast, we may actually be entering the best look yet for winter storms.
With that said we have multiple systems we're following. Let's dive in.
For now, the cold has eased...some. To date, the Hartford area is in the midst of its 16th coldest winter on record, and the coldest since 1994. Bridgeport has its 14th coldest winter on record, and coldest since 2011 (which was 11th all time at this date).
Brrr.
We've finally pulled out of the repeated Arctic blasts, as the hemispheric pattern now places the deepest cold thousands of miles away in northwest Canada and the Arctic, rather than just to our northwest. For those tired of the cold, this is obviously a welcome development, but there's more to unpack with this current thaw. Although warmer, it's not like we're breaking any warm records, and once again a modeled push of warmth--remember when we expected 50 degree temperatures--has fallen back to the "tenor" of the season with no true warmth.
The second thing that this thaw does is open the door to a more active pattern. With deep Arctic cold and ample blocking, it was hard to get a coastal storm to pop and ride along the coast, as the Arctic press more often than not suppressed whatever was trying to develop. With a modified pattern now the battle zone between warmth and cold is once again nearby, and as several waves this week try to move our way we have multiple chances for precipitation of all types--rain, ice, and snow. This also fits climatology. We're now out of the coldest part of the season historically speaking, and as we continue to gain daylight and the sun angle increases it will be harder, but not impossible, to get mostly unmodified Arctic air.
So while it looks like the deepest cold is done in Connecticut aside from a rogue quick blast, we may actually be entering the best look yet for winter storms.
With that said we have multiple systems we're following. Let's dive in.
Above: the 12z EPS showing surface temperature anomalies into early March. Note how the biggest cold anomalies are in NW Canada and the Arctic, and while we stay cool overall with some deeper shots of cold, the deepest cold is no longer sustained nearby.
Tuesday
First, let's look at tomorrow. It will likely be colder than today and while we're not expecting a significant storm there is a setup for freezing rain. We will have low level moisture as a weak system passes well to the north, and while temperatures may be marginal, any moisture in the low levels may lead to freezing drizzle into Tuesday morning. As a result, be careful if you are on the roads in the morning, and there may be spotty delays.
Overall though, Tuesday is ok in the afternoon and evening, with temperatures once again above freezing. Whatever icing there is will melt.
Wednesday
An extremely tricky setup is on tap for Wednesday. A significant system well to our west will effectively eject a plume of moisture toward New England as a boundary moves into the region. Another fast moving system will try to develop along this boundary, possibly brining a period of heavy snow wherever the boundary and cold air settles. This is a very narrow corridor where heavy snow is possible, while areas south of the boundary likely see rain.
The guidance has been all over the place, which is no surprise given how much of this is based off where the boundary sets up.
Today, the trend has been to keep the snow just to the north of the state, with maybe extreme northern portions seeing snow.
Below, the 18z GFS at approximately 7pm Wednesday. Snow is just to the north of the state with perhaps some snow/mixed precipitation in far northern CT and rain everywhere else.
Tuesday
First, let's look at tomorrow. It will likely be colder than today and while we're not expecting a significant storm there is a setup for freezing rain. We will have low level moisture as a weak system passes well to the north, and while temperatures may be marginal, any moisture in the low levels may lead to freezing drizzle into Tuesday morning. As a result, be careful if you are on the roads in the morning, and there may be spotty delays.
Overall though, Tuesday is ok in the afternoon and evening, with temperatures once again above freezing. Whatever icing there is will melt.
Wednesday
An extremely tricky setup is on tap for Wednesday. A significant system well to our west will effectively eject a plume of moisture toward New England as a boundary moves into the region. Another fast moving system will try to develop along this boundary, possibly brining a period of heavy snow wherever the boundary and cold air settles. This is a very narrow corridor where heavy snow is possible, while areas south of the boundary likely see rain.
The guidance has been all over the place, which is no surprise given how much of this is based off where the boundary sets up.
Today, the trend has been to keep the snow just to the north of the state, with maybe extreme northern portions seeing snow.
Below, the 18z GFS at approximately 7pm Wednesday. Snow is just to the north of the state with perhaps some snow/mixed precipitation in far northern CT and rain everywhere else.
Below the 18z Euro shows the cold unable to get far enough south for any kind of snow in the state.
Finally we have the 18z NAM, which has also bounced around.
Although these models are showing something similar, I caution followers that it wouldn't take much trending either way to make this more of a rain event or an impactful snow event in northern CT. In fact, the latest NAM (00z) pushes the snow further south. This is just a tough one that we need to continue watching.
For now, I think a coating to 2" of snow in extreme northern CT is possible with rain elsewhere.
Thursday-Friday
While Thursday looks like a quiet day with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s, Friday is another chance at some kind of system. Our boundary will be nearby as another Midwest system tries to move east. Here, the guidance splits on what this system will do.
While the GFS develops a robust low to our south, brining snow to northern New England and possible mixing in northern CT and rain to southern CT, the Euro has a slightly different evolution that turns into a significant difference, with colder air bringing snow to the state on Friday.
For now, I think a coating to 2" of snow in extreme northern CT is possible with rain elsewhere.
Thursday-Friday
While Thursday looks like a quiet day with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s, Friday is another chance at some kind of system. Our boundary will be nearby as another Midwest system tries to move east. Here, the guidance splits on what this system will do.
While the GFS develops a robust low to our south, brining snow to northern New England and possible mixing in northern CT and rain to southern CT, the Euro has a slightly different evolution that turns into a significant difference, with colder air bringing snow to the state on Friday.
Friday evolution on the Euro on top. GFS on the bottom.
The bottom line for Friday is that rain and wintry precipitation is possible and is worth watching as it may cause disruptions.
Saturday-Monday
Saturday once again becomes a quiet intermission before our next threat. There's already some hype starting on this one, so let's take a moment to remember the hype a week ago for the storm that missed to our south yesterday.
There is a signal, and a growing one, that a storm will try to develop over the weekend and slide off the coast. From there, it's anyone's guess what it'll do at this range.
Below are the GFS and Euro. While the GFS has a storm that gets close enough for snow late Sunday into Monday, the Euro keeps a strong storm south and messy surface depiction over New England.
Saturday-Monday
Saturday once again becomes a quiet intermission before our next threat. There's already some hype starting on this one, so let's take a moment to remember the hype a week ago for the storm that missed to our south yesterday.
There is a signal, and a growing one, that a storm will try to develop over the weekend and slide off the coast. From there, it's anyone's guess what it'll do at this range.
Below are the GFS and Euro. While the GFS has a storm that gets close enough for snow late Sunday into Monday, the Euro keeps a strong storm south and messy surface depiction over New England.
What significantly adds intrigue is the AI version of these models. The AI has done very well in identifying medium range patterns this winter, and here, with more ridging in the west leading to better amplification of a storm this coming weekend, the result is explosive.
The AI GFS has been fairly consistent in developing a big storm that tracks over southern New England. This would bring a very significant storm with all precipitation types.
The AI GFS has been fairly consistent in developing a big storm that tracks over southern New England. This would bring a very significant storm with all precipitation types.
The AI Euro, which has also been excellent at identifying patterns and storm tracks so far this winter, also has an explosive setup. This model keeps the low off the coast, bringing another blockbuster storm to the region.
So what's right? Well, at this stage there's nothing to worry about or get excited about, yet.
It's too early to say what models have a better handle, but with the AI version of these models and legacy model ensembles showing the potential for a significant storm, I currently lean more toward a storm than a miss like last weekend. This one is worth watching.
The Dailies
Tuesday: Freezing drizzle early with partly to mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow in northern CT and rain in southern CT. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 60%.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow late. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 40%.
Monday: Rain, snow, and windy conditions. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 40%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
It's too early to say what models have a better handle, but with the AI version of these models and legacy model ensembles showing the potential for a significant storm, I currently lean more toward a storm than a miss like last weekend. This one is worth watching.
The Dailies
Tuesday: Freezing drizzle early with partly to mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow in northern CT and rain in southern CT. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 60%.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow late. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 40%.
Monday: Rain, snow, and windy conditions. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 40%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
