When I wrote yesterday, I stated that there was high uncertainty regarding Wave 1, which is set to impact our state tomorrow. Since then, we have seen the guidance slowly converge on a solution, and we now have higher confidence in a minor event. While we are more confident in a period of snow tomorrow, there's still a touch of uncertainty about the potential here. That said, here's our forecast.
This looks pretty straightforward. An area of low pressure (Wave 1) will develop to our south and slide off the coast tomorrow. The track now looks north enough to bring us a period of precipitation. Early morning looks fine, but as we get into the mid-morning and early afternoon hours we will see rain break out from south to north. Over time, we will see the column of air above us cool, even if the surface remains above freezing, and we should all flip to a period of snow. It may take longer to flip near the shoreline.
This should be a quick mover, with most of the precipitation falling through the afternoon and early evening hours. We will clear out overnight, and in the wake of the storm we will see a cold but quiet Tuesday.
As you saw in our first image, we are going with a general range statewide of a coating to two inches. We're doing this because we could see a wide variation across the state, similar to our early December storm, where places that have heavier rates will see snow and accumulate, while other places struggle to accumulate at all.
What we do expect is that most snow will accumulate on non-paved surfaces. Some places will see very little snowfall, while others may see an inch or two. A few spots could see three inches but that would require a "boom" scenario.
We expect this to be a low impact event. Surface temperatures look to be above freezing virtually everywhere, which will reduce the impact on the roads. We do not expect significant wind or enough snow to cause power issues. The fast moving nature of the storm also helps. The PM commute does look messy regardless, so take it easy on the roads!
Black ice might be an issue after the storm as cold air rushes in overnight. That will set the stage for Wave 2, which is expected to impact the region on Wednesday/Thursday.
All indications are that Wave 2 has the potential to be a blockbuster for Connecticut. Stay tuned.
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