Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
Sometimes it's the smaller storms that bring the greatest forecasting challenge. A number of places saw their first below freezing day since February 2023, and the cold in place this week is going to make tomorrow a challenging day as a weak system approaches. Given the timing and potential for some freezing rain and sleet, this is a higher impact event than it would otherwise be. Let's dive in.
Sometimes it's the smaller storms that bring the greatest forecasting challenge. A number of places saw their first below freezing day since February 2023, and the cold in place this week is going to make tomorrow a challenging day as a weak system approaches. Given the timing and potential for some freezing rain and sleet, this is a higher impact event than it would otherwise be. Let's dive in.
Above: our map for the upcoming event. For most of interior CT, we expect 2-5" of mostly snow. Given the trend, isolated areas may see 6". However, mixing may happen in part of this zone for a time tomorrow afternoon after most precipitation has fallen, leading to a glaze of ice from freezing rain and/or sleet. This is particularly true in Hartford, Tolland, and Windham counties, and over in coastal SW CT.
For the coastline zone we expect 1-3". The least is likely to fall along the immediate shoreline. Here we expect snow changing to a mix that would include freezing rain, sleet, and maybe even a little plain rain in far SE CT.
Overall Progression
Despite the challenge on the extent of the mixing, the overall progression is straightforward. Snow is quickly approaching as this system continues to bring snow and mixing to the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the south. A weak low will develop well offshore, but with a close enough track (too close for all snow this time) and a little faster development we will see impacts here.
While some flurries are possible late tonight, snow really begins from south to north after midnight. It's cold enough for everywhere to start all snow.
Most should still be all snow during the morning hours around the commute, with the mixing line approaching SE CT. Everyone is likely to be below freezing still at this time so the commute is going to be impacted significantly. Snow may be moderate to heavy at times.
For the coastline zone we expect 1-3". The least is likely to fall along the immediate shoreline. Here we expect snow changing to a mix that would include freezing rain, sleet, and maybe even a little plain rain in far SE CT.
Overall Progression
Despite the challenge on the extent of the mixing, the overall progression is straightforward. Snow is quickly approaching as this system continues to bring snow and mixing to the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the south. A weak low will develop well offshore, but with a close enough track (too close for all snow this time) and a little faster development we will see impacts here.
While some flurries are possible late tonight, snow really begins from south to north after midnight. It's cold enough for everywhere to start all snow.
Most should still be all snow during the morning hours around the commute, with the mixing line approaching SE CT. Everyone is likely to be below freezing still at this time so the commute is going to be impacted significantly. Snow may be moderate to heavy at times.
Above: the high resolution NAM depiction of the event.
Most guidance has something like the depiction above now, with warm air aloft causing mixing over a greater portion of the state late morning into afternoon while most stay below freezing during the event. This isn't like last weekend where the shoreline is rotting under light precipitation at 37 degrees for no accumulation. Even at the coast, the temperatures are near to below freezing. The biggest question of where temperatures rise above freezing is coastal SE CT, hence the 1" zone. For inland areas that may mix, most of the precipitation will have already fallen as snow by the time a mix happens.
The precipitation will be lighter by afternoon and change back to snow on the backside as the storm departs tomorrow evening.
Overall Impact
With a little more snowfall and the likelihood of freezing rain and/or sleet tomorrow, this looks like a moderate impact event. With the snow lasting all day and potential for icing, which doesn't look major--just a glaze--it's probably going to cause widespread cancellations. We're not expect any wind or power issues. We stay in the freezer in the wake of the storm.
No reason to overthink this one. It looks like a mostly snow event with mixing late morning and afternoon in a good portion of the state that could bring a glaze of ice. The timing and icing although minor should make this a more moderate impact event.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Most guidance has something like the depiction above now, with warm air aloft causing mixing over a greater portion of the state late morning into afternoon while most stay below freezing during the event. This isn't like last weekend where the shoreline is rotting under light precipitation at 37 degrees for no accumulation. Even at the coast, the temperatures are near to below freezing. The biggest question of where temperatures rise above freezing is coastal SE CT, hence the 1" zone. For inland areas that may mix, most of the precipitation will have already fallen as snow by the time a mix happens.
The precipitation will be lighter by afternoon and change back to snow on the backside as the storm departs tomorrow evening.
Overall Impact
With a little more snowfall and the likelihood of freezing rain and/or sleet tomorrow, this looks like a moderate impact event. With the snow lasting all day and potential for icing, which doesn't look major--just a glaze--it's probably going to cause widespread cancellations. We're not expect any wind or power issues. We stay in the freezer in the wake of the storm.
No reason to overthink this one. It looks like a mostly snow event with mixing late morning and afternoon in a good portion of the state that could bring a glaze of ice. The timing and icing although minor should make this a more moderate impact event.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
