Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather…
Confidence is increasing in a moderate to high impact event during late Tuesday and much of Wednesday. Significant questions remain regarding accumulation along the shoreline and SE CT
Confidence is increasing in a moderate to high impact event during late Tuesday and much of Wednesday. Significant questions remain regarding accumulation along the shoreline and SE CT
What We Know
This is a complex forecast.
What we have overall is the potential for a period of snow showers or light snow tomorrow in Litchfield County and far northern and western Fairfield County, but the main show is an area of low pressure that will develop and then redevelop to our south tomorrow night into Wednesday.
We know a snow event is coming, and we have a sense of timing (more below). I also have moderate confidence in a moderate to high impact event statewide.
This is a complex forecast.
What we have overall is the potential for a period of snow showers or light snow tomorrow in Litchfield County and far northern and western Fairfield County, but the main show is an area of low pressure that will develop and then redevelop to our south tomorrow night into Wednesday.
We know a snow event is coming, and we have a sense of timing (more below). I also have moderate confidence in a moderate to high impact event statewide.
18z GFS depiction of the snow over the next 48 hours. Note that this isn’t a forecast but merely an illustration of what could happen at the surface.
What We Don’t Know
The biggest thing we don’t know is the extent of warming in the column just above the ground in SE Connecticut. Folks down there have danced this dance before—they’re on the dividing line between a higher accumulation event, and a degree or two of warmth that brings rain instead of snow.
Here, I am torn. Some guidance has warmed the column enough to bring rain to some of coastal Connecticut, and some guidance this evening has brought that warmth to parts of New London County.
However, one suite of model runs does not create a trend. In this instance, I am taking a blend of the guidance over the last few days, most notably the GFS, Euro, and RGEM.
Timing
As I mentioned at the start, tomorrow could be wintry in the northern and western part of the state, with snow showers or periods of light snow around during the early afternoon hours. However, it looks like snow will hold off for virtually everyone outside Litchfield County during the day tomorrow. I’m hesitant to say that the evening commute won’t be impacted in the rest of northern CT (particularly Hartford County), but right now, I think for most, the commute is just fine.
The biggest thing we don’t know is the extent of warming in the column just above the ground in SE Connecticut. Folks down there have danced this dance before—they’re on the dividing line between a higher accumulation event, and a degree or two of warmth that brings rain instead of snow.
Here, I am torn. Some guidance has warmed the column enough to bring rain to some of coastal Connecticut, and some guidance this evening has brought that warmth to parts of New London County.
However, one suite of model runs does not create a trend. In this instance, I am taking a blend of the guidance over the last few days, most notably the GFS, Euro, and RGEM.
Timing
As I mentioned at the start, tomorrow could be wintry in the northern and western part of the state, with snow showers or periods of light snow around during the early afternoon hours. However, it looks like snow will hold off for virtually everyone outside Litchfield County during the day tomorrow. I’m hesitant to say that the evening commute won’t be impacted in the rest of northern CT (particularly Hartford County), but right now, I think for most, the commute is just fine.
RGEM depiction of the snow potential tomorrow. This is a higher resolution model, and one that generally allows us to get a better sense of timing for events.
Snow should begin for areas NW to SE over the course of the evening (post sunset) to overnight hours. I think that most are seeing snow fall by 1am. Snow should be falling across the state during the morning hours, with a change to rain or a rain/snow mix in SE CT as the day progresses and temperatures rise above freezing. I expect snow to begin tapering off during the late morning hours, but light snow will likely to continue to fall in spots over the afternoon hours.
Snow should begin for areas NW to SE over the course of the evening (post sunset) to overnight hours. I think that most are seeing snow fall by 1am. Snow should be falling across the state during the morning hours, with a change to rain or a rain/snow mix in SE CT as the day progresses and temperatures rise above freezing. I expect snow to begin tapering off during the late morning hours, but light snow will likely to continue to fall in spots over the afternoon hours.
Impact
Overall, this is likely to be one of our higher impact events because of the timing. I expect widespread cancellations on Wednesday, as crews are trying to plow the roads and snow continues to fall. Even in SE Connecticut, where there is a risk of rain mixing in, I expect the snow falling in the morning hours to cause delays or cancellations.
I am keeping the 2-4 contour for SE Connecticut, but I believe many in that zone will be on the lower end. There is a lot of bust potential there in both directions. Some could end up with just a coating, and if the column is colder, others could end up with more than 4". It's more of a roll of the dice there than I'd like.
For the rest of the state, I am more confident in the snow forecast. I believe that 4-8 inches will fall with the most being in northern and western portions of the state. It is not out of the question that isolated spots in Litchfield County get an inch or two more than our max, but it was not worth introducing another snowfall accumulation zone.
Aside from that, there may be a period of moderate to heavier snows during the morning, but nothing that looks overwhelming as there are questions over the extent of banding and snow growth efficiency.
I don’t think wind is a concern but the snow may be of a heavier consistency. Without wind though I do not expect widespread power outages.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
I am keeping the 2-4 contour for SE Connecticut, but I believe many in that zone will be on the lower end. There is a lot of bust potential there in both directions. Some could end up with just a coating, and if the column is colder, others could end up with more than 4". It's more of a roll of the dice there than I'd like.
For the rest of the state, I am more confident in the snow forecast. I believe that 4-8 inches will fall with the most being in northern and western portions of the state. It is not out of the question that isolated spots in Litchfield County get an inch or two more than our max, but it was not worth introducing another snowfall accumulation zone.
Aside from that, there may be a period of moderate to heavier snows during the morning, but nothing that looks overwhelming as there are questions over the extent of banding and snow growth efficiency.
I don’t think wind is a concern but the snow may be of a heavier consistency. Without wind though I do not expect widespread power outages.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
