Currently: A weak cold front has passed through the area. A stronger cold front approaches overnight.
Tonight: Although a stronger cold front will be approaching, moisture with this front is very limited, so no precipitation is expected with this front. Any sprinkles with this front should remain south of the state. As for temperatures, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than previous nights, with low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s in the coldest spots to the low 60s along the south coast.
Tomorrow: A mix of sun and some passing afternoon clouds. A nice day, as temperatures and dew points will be lower, but it will still be warm. Expect high temperatures to range from 75 to 80 degrees, with the coolest readings along the south coast, where a sea breeze will set up.
Tomorrow Night and Thursday: Expect a continued trend to cooler temperatures and no precipitation. Lows tomorrow night will generally range 55 to 60 degrees, with the possibility for low temperatures to be a couple degrees warmer than forecast if there are more clouds than I currently expect. Although no precipitation is expected on Thursday, clouds will increase throughout the day, and this, combined with a deeper marine layer, should keep high temperatures only in the 70 to 75 degree range.
Long Term: As we head into the long term, the next potential system to affect the area is on Friday. A slow-moving cold front will approach the region. Most of the day on Friday will probably turn out dry, but a band of showers and thunderstorms should affect the state later in the day, from rush hour onward, until around 10 PM or so. These thunderstorms will have a tendency to weaken as they head east, so the best chances for thunderstorms will be in the western half of the state, basically west of I 91. High temperatures on Friday should be very similar to those of Thursday- in the 70 to 75 degree range.
Timing the various systems for the weekend is going to be difficult, but for now, it appears that Saturday should be a gap in between systems. If it materializes this way, then Saturday would likely be warmer and drier than previously forecast, with downsloping winds helping to pump up the temperatures. Therefore, I am now expecting Saturday's high temperatures to be close to 80 degrees statewide, with very similar temperatures throughout the state.
On Sunday, the cold front will buckle offshore and stall. These setups tend to favor a wave of low pressure setting up along them. Since the front will be east of the area, we'd also be in the cold sector. This is a setup that favors a raw, rainy day. With this package, I am introducing the scenario of a rather rainy day. For now, I'll forecast high temperatures in the 70 to 75 degree range. However, if the all-day rain scenario pans out, these temperatures could be lowered by 5 to 7 degrees.
Looking further ahead into early next week, unsettled weather looks to linger at least a couple more days. The offshore front may continue buckling west and combine with a low to our south and push a warm front through the state on Monday. This would favor rain much of the time on Monday. Temperatures would be very tricky Monday, since warm fronts can tend to encounter resistance when moving north in this setup. However, it is June. This is important, because there won't be a winter-type high pressure system to the north pushing against the front. Ocean and sound temperatures have warmed significantly because of the latest warm spell. These factors would favor the warm front making it through. So for now, I'll make my forecast predicated on the warm front making it through. However, temperatures may need to be adjusted downward in latest forecast cycles if it becomes evident that the front will not make it through. So, putting this all together, Monday's high temperatures should be in the mid to upper 70s. With the warmer air moving in, there will also be a chance for thunderstorms to accompany the showers. In fact, if the warm front makes good progress, the southwestern half of the state may even see some sun late in the day Monday.
For Tuesday, the first half of the day may see some sunshine, then there will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms firing up later in the day, as another cold front approaches from the west. Temperatures on Tuesday would be largely dependent on the timing of this feature, which is hard to predict from this far out, but with models being fairly quick with the frontal passage at this time, I'll go with the cooler side of temperatures, with highs only getting to 70 or few degrees warmer.
The long range looks to generally continue the pattern of at or below normal temperatures and frequent precipitation chances. This is not to say that there can't be a warm or even hot day thrown in there, since it is June, but with a fast pattern and frequent frontal passages, and a seemingly unseasonable amount of cool air available to the north, that would favor an overall pattern of frequent episodes of showers and thunderstorms, and not much chance for the atmosphere to get very warm between frontal passages.
Now, let's take a look at some of the weather that will be affecting our state in graphical format. For now, since the only real "significant" event that could affect the state is modeled for the Sunday to Monday time frame, I'll just show you the GFS valid that time frame.
Tonight: Although a stronger cold front will be approaching, moisture with this front is very limited, so no precipitation is expected with this front. Any sprinkles with this front should remain south of the state. As for temperatures, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than previous nights, with low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s in the coldest spots to the low 60s along the south coast.
Tomorrow: A mix of sun and some passing afternoon clouds. A nice day, as temperatures and dew points will be lower, but it will still be warm. Expect high temperatures to range from 75 to 80 degrees, with the coolest readings along the south coast, where a sea breeze will set up.
Tomorrow Night and Thursday: Expect a continued trend to cooler temperatures and no precipitation. Lows tomorrow night will generally range 55 to 60 degrees, with the possibility for low temperatures to be a couple degrees warmer than forecast if there are more clouds than I currently expect. Although no precipitation is expected on Thursday, clouds will increase throughout the day, and this, combined with a deeper marine layer, should keep high temperatures only in the 70 to 75 degree range.
Long Term: As we head into the long term, the next potential system to affect the area is on Friday. A slow-moving cold front will approach the region. Most of the day on Friday will probably turn out dry, but a band of showers and thunderstorms should affect the state later in the day, from rush hour onward, until around 10 PM or so. These thunderstorms will have a tendency to weaken as they head east, so the best chances for thunderstorms will be in the western half of the state, basically west of I 91. High temperatures on Friday should be very similar to those of Thursday- in the 70 to 75 degree range.
Timing the various systems for the weekend is going to be difficult, but for now, it appears that Saturday should be a gap in between systems. If it materializes this way, then Saturday would likely be warmer and drier than previously forecast, with downsloping winds helping to pump up the temperatures. Therefore, I am now expecting Saturday's high temperatures to be close to 80 degrees statewide, with very similar temperatures throughout the state.
On Sunday, the cold front will buckle offshore and stall. These setups tend to favor a wave of low pressure setting up along them. Since the front will be east of the area, we'd also be in the cold sector. This is a setup that favors a raw, rainy day. With this package, I am introducing the scenario of a rather rainy day. For now, I'll forecast high temperatures in the 70 to 75 degree range. However, if the all-day rain scenario pans out, these temperatures could be lowered by 5 to 7 degrees.
Looking further ahead into early next week, unsettled weather looks to linger at least a couple more days. The offshore front may continue buckling west and combine with a low to our south and push a warm front through the state on Monday. This would favor rain much of the time on Monday. Temperatures would be very tricky Monday, since warm fronts can tend to encounter resistance when moving north in this setup. However, it is June. This is important, because there won't be a winter-type high pressure system to the north pushing against the front. Ocean and sound temperatures have warmed significantly because of the latest warm spell. These factors would favor the warm front making it through. So for now, I'll make my forecast predicated on the warm front making it through. However, temperatures may need to be adjusted downward in latest forecast cycles if it becomes evident that the front will not make it through. So, putting this all together, Monday's high temperatures should be in the mid to upper 70s. With the warmer air moving in, there will also be a chance for thunderstorms to accompany the showers. In fact, if the warm front makes good progress, the southwestern half of the state may even see some sun late in the day Monday.
For Tuesday, the first half of the day may see some sunshine, then there will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms firing up later in the day, as another cold front approaches from the west. Temperatures on Tuesday would be largely dependent on the timing of this feature, which is hard to predict from this far out, but with models being fairly quick with the frontal passage at this time, I'll go with the cooler side of temperatures, with highs only getting to 70 or few degrees warmer.
The long range looks to generally continue the pattern of at or below normal temperatures and frequent precipitation chances. This is not to say that there can't be a warm or even hot day thrown in there, since it is June, but with a fast pattern and frequent frontal passages, and a seemingly unseasonable amount of cool air available to the north, that would favor an overall pattern of frequent episodes of showers and thunderstorms, and not much chance for the atmosphere to get very warm between frontal passages.
Now, let's take a look at some of the weather that will be affecting our state in graphical format. For now, since the only real "significant" event that could affect the state is modeled for the Sunday to Monday time frame, I'll just show you the GFS valid that time frame.
On this map, valid around midnight Monday night, we can see a low pressure center over the thumb of Michigan, with bagginess extending off the coast of New Jersey, indicating another low pressure system there. Based on wind barbs, the warm front extends from about the low pressure center in Michigan, to near Atlantic City, New Jersey, at that time.
That's all for now! Have a great rest of your week!
-GP!
That's all for now! Have a great rest of your week!
-GP!
