Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
We had a lovely fall weekend across the state, with seasonable temperatures and ample sunshine! Our October so far has been fairly benign. Temperatures at Hartford (BDL) and Bridgeport have both been within one degree of normal, and even with our nor'easter both stations are drier than normal. The rain did ease the extent of the drought, but only marginally.
The week ahead however brings hope. While I'm not quite ready to say we're in a full blown pattern change because the temperature profile doesn't look significantly different from what we've been experiencing, it does look like the pattern has modified enough to bring us repeated rain chances over the last third of October, including two in the coming week. Let's dive in.
We had a lovely fall weekend across the state, with seasonable temperatures and ample sunshine! Our October so far has been fairly benign. Temperatures at Hartford (BDL) and Bridgeport have both been within one degree of normal, and even with our nor'easter both stations are drier than normal. The rain did ease the extent of the drought, but only marginally.
The week ahead however brings hope. While I'm not quite ready to say we're in a full blown pattern change because the temperature profile doesn't look significantly different from what we've been experiencing, it does look like the pattern has modified enough to bring us repeated rain chances over the last third of October, including two in the coming week. Let's dive in.
Above: an analysis of precipitation relative to normal since July 1, 2025. Note how the worst conditions are by far in northern New England, where they are experiencing their worst drought in decades.
Below: the latest drought monitor showing the severity of the dry conditions region wide. It could be much worse in our neck of the woods.
Below: the latest drought monitor showing the severity of the dry conditions region wide. It could be much worse in our neck of the woods.
Monday
Tomorrow brings our best chance for meaningful rainfall. First, folks along the coast should watch out for minor coastal flooding, with a coastal flood advisory up for the entire shoreline as minor inundation on the order of 6" is possible tomorrow morning.
Our weather maker is already making its way through western New York, and will arrive in the morning for us. This is a strong frontal system that will likely bring periods of moderate to heavy rain, strong winds, and perhaps some strong thunderstorms tomorrow between about 3am and noon.
From there, it may continue to be cloudy and breezy but we will gradually dry out. I don't think we see significant wind issues tomorrow, but it will be worth monitoring for general 20-40mph gusts that could knock out power in isolated spots, especially if there are thunderstorms embedded in the line that could help mix down the stronger winds. If we see those thunderstorms, gusts up to 50mph may be possible. Be prepared for a wet commute in the morning.
Below: the latest HRRR showing a depiction of the line moving through the state tomorrow morning.
Tomorrow brings our best chance for meaningful rainfall. First, folks along the coast should watch out for minor coastal flooding, with a coastal flood advisory up for the entire shoreline as minor inundation on the order of 6" is possible tomorrow morning.
Our weather maker is already making its way through western New York, and will arrive in the morning for us. This is a strong frontal system that will likely bring periods of moderate to heavy rain, strong winds, and perhaps some strong thunderstorms tomorrow between about 3am and noon.
From there, it may continue to be cloudy and breezy but we will gradually dry out. I don't think we see significant wind issues tomorrow, but it will be worth monitoring for general 20-40mph gusts that could knock out power in isolated spots, especially if there are thunderstorms embedded in the line that could help mix down the stronger winds. If we see those thunderstorms, gusts up to 50mph may be possible. Be prepared for a wet commute in the morning.
Below: the latest HRRR showing a depiction of the line moving through the state tomorrow morning.
Tuesday-Wednesday
After the frontal system departs Monday, we move back to seasonable temperatures on Tuesday with highs in the 60s. While Tuesday looks partly to mostly sunny and dry, our next chance of rain comes early Wednesday from a system that is much weaker. The rain is less meaningful here, but every little bit helps. After the front passes we will be under the influence of a related system to our west which will bring clouds and some minor shower chances on Thursday.
After the frontal system departs Monday, we move back to seasonable temperatures on Tuesday with highs in the 60s. While Tuesday looks partly to mostly sunny and dry, our next chance of rain comes early Wednesday from a system that is much weaker. The rain is less meaningful here, but every little bit helps. After the front passes we will be under the influence of a related system to our west which will bring clouds and some minor shower chances on Thursday.
Above: the 12z Euro depiction of the Thursday-Friday period. Note the chance of showers around on Thursday in the wake of our second rain chance. Odds of something are low, but will be in the forecast. This will also move us into a cooler period of temperatures.
Thursday-Sunday
The latter half of the week currently looks quiet, outside of the aforementioned rain shower chances on Thursday. It will be cooler but seasonable, with highs struggling to reach 60 and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. We'll see if that trends any colder for overall that's not terribly unseasonable for this time of year.
The Dailies
Monday: Rain, with thunderstorm chances and breezy conditions. Mostly cloudy otherwise. Highs in the low to mid 60s but dropping after the front. Chance of rain 90%.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 60s.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers early. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 60%.
Thursday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 20%.
Friday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Finally, a bit of news. The last few years it has been hard to put out seasonal forecasts due to the amount of time it takes and me being the only consistent writer now. But, with requests from more than a few followers we are going to make an effort to write and grade a winter forecast. The aim will be to post it the week of Thanksgiving, and submit a final grade once we declare winter over.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Thursday-Sunday
The latter half of the week currently looks quiet, outside of the aforementioned rain shower chances on Thursday. It will be cooler but seasonable, with highs struggling to reach 60 and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. We'll see if that trends any colder for overall that's not terribly unseasonable for this time of year.
The Dailies
Monday: Rain, with thunderstorm chances and breezy conditions. Mostly cloudy otherwise. Highs in the low to mid 60s but dropping after the front. Chance of rain 90%.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 60s.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers early. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 60%.
Thursday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 20%.
Friday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Finally, a bit of news. The last few years it has been hard to put out seasonal forecasts due to the amount of time it takes and me being the only consistent writer now. But, with requests from more than a few followers we are going to make an effort to write and grade a winter forecast. The aim will be to post it the week of Thanksgiving, and submit a final grade once we declare winter over.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
