Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
As I mentioned in my Facebook post earlier this afternoon, yesterday's trend of a stronger system has continued into today and even this evening. Our team made a map revision as I began writing this post! We don't see that too often here at SCW. Winter Weather Advisories are up for most of Connecticut, but we are all looking at a low to moderate impact event beginning late Tuesday morning/early afternoon into Wednesday morning.
As I mentioned in my Facebook post earlier this afternoon, yesterday's trend of a stronger system has continued into today and even this evening. Our team made a map revision as I began writing this post! We don't see that too often here at SCW. Winter Weather Advisories are up for most of Connecticut, but we are all looking at a low to moderate impact event beginning late Tuesday morning/early afternoon into Wednesday morning.
Overall Setup
Here's our map for the event. Originally, we were going to go with 1-3" at the immediate shoreline but the trend today has been more moisture and colder temperatures even at the shoreline, which would mean more snowfall. As a result, our current forecast is for a widespread 2-5" for the state. There are some indications that the potential may be a bit higher in the snowfall category, but we're not biting on that for now.
The overall setup is pretty straightforward. A system will develop to our west and spawn secondary development of a low pressure system to our south. This will allow for precipitation to enter our region and with colder air in place most of it should fall as snow. In fact, most of the state is now likely to stay below freezing during the duration of the event in my opinion. That will help with accumulation.
There may be a chance of some mixing in the lighter returns at the end of the storm, especially along the coastline, but we're not expecting meaningful icing in this situation.
Here's our map for the event. Originally, we were going to go with 1-3" at the immediate shoreline but the trend today has been more moisture and colder temperatures even at the shoreline, which would mean more snowfall. As a result, our current forecast is for a widespread 2-5" for the state. There are some indications that the potential may be a bit higher in the snowfall category, but we're not biting on that for now.
The overall setup is pretty straightforward. A system will develop to our west and spawn secondary development of a low pressure system to our south. This will allow for precipitation to enter our region and with colder air in place most of it should fall as snow. In fact, most of the state is now likely to stay below freezing during the duration of the event in my opinion. That will help with accumulation.
There may be a chance of some mixing in the lighter returns at the end of the storm, especially along the coastline, but we're not expecting meaningful icing in this situation.
Above, the 12z Canadian depiction (no, I do not show the Canadian a lot but I think the overall evolution makes sense) of the storm. Mostly snow for the state.
Timing
Snow should begin from SW to NE from late tomorrow morning in far SW CT through early-mid afternoon in central and NE CT. Although the snow will start light, we're seeing more indications that there will be a pretty decent front end burst of moderate snow. This may make tomorrow afternoon's commute more tricky than originally expected. For this reason, we think this could briefly be a moderate impact event where heavier returns set up during the commute.
In addition, this is looking like a longer duration event. The latest European model run has continued to signal light to potentially moderate snow falling through Wednesday morning, making that commute tricky as well.
Snow should begin from SW to NE from late tomorrow morning in far SW CT through early-mid afternoon in central and NE CT. Although the snow will start light, we're seeing more indications that there will be a pretty decent front end burst of moderate snow. This may make tomorrow afternoon's commute more tricky than originally expected. For this reason, we think this could briefly be a moderate impact event where heavier returns set up during the commute.
In addition, this is looking like a longer duration event. The latest European model run has continued to signal light to potentially moderate snow falling through Wednesday morning, making that commute tricky as well.
Above: the 18z European model depiction of the snow event. Note that even along the shore there is snow, and moderate snow looks possible through tomorrow afternoon's commute. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.
Overall Impact
We think this is a low to moderate impact event. It's moderate because the timing of the heavier snow is likely to impact the Tuesday afternoon commute and to a lesser extent, the Wednesday morning commute. We do not expect significant wind or power outage issues, and the overall accumulation falls within our general low to moderate impact range.
There's still some upside to this event, so it's possible there's another map revision upward early tomorrow, but for now we think a broad 2-5" zone with heaviest snow falling in places that receive the better "banding" or dynamics is the strongest forecast.
I am inclined to say that more snow is likely to fall the further inland you go, but should better dynamics setup along the shoreline, that area can do well in the snowfall department too.
I guess winter is back.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading.
-DB
We think this is a low to moderate impact event. It's moderate because the timing of the heavier snow is likely to impact the Tuesday afternoon commute and to a lesser extent, the Wednesday morning commute. We do not expect significant wind or power outage issues, and the overall accumulation falls within our general low to moderate impact range.
There's still some upside to this event, so it's possible there's another map revision upward early tomorrow, but for now we think a broad 2-5" zone with heaviest snow falling in places that receive the better "banding" or dynamics is the strongest forecast.
I am inclined to say that more snow is likely to fall the further inland you go, but should better dynamics setup along the shoreline, that area can do well in the snowfall department too.
I guess winter is back.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading.
-DB
