Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
First, I believe I responded today to everyone that sent well wishes, but I just want to say thank you once more to the hundreds of individuals that sent love and support in the days following the passing of my dad. The overwhelming show of support will always be meaningful to me.
Now to the weather. It's been a pretty cold January, but with the exception of one storm, we haven't seen any big snow events despite big areas of low pressure missing just to the east or cutting to the west.
GP alluded to it in his forecast a few days ago, and while we are still an eternity away from knowing what will happen, there is a very strong signal for a deep low pressure system to develop toward the end of the coming week and track northeast during the weekend.
Before we get to that though, let's talk about the workweek ahead.
First, I believe I responded today to everyone that sent well wishes, but I just want to say thank you once more to the hundreds of individuals that sent love and support in the days following the passing of my dad. The overwhelming show of support will always be meaningful to me.
Now to the weather. It's been a pretty cold January, but with the exception of one storm, we haven't seen any big snow events despite big areas of low pressure missing just to the east or cutting to the west.
GP alluded to it in his forecast a few days ago, and while we are still an eternity away from knowing what will happen, there is a very strong signal for a deep low pressure system to develop toward the end of the coming week and track northeast during the weekend.
Before we get to that though, let's talk about the workweek ahead.
Above: an analysis of temperature departures so far this January. While not overwhelmingly cold, this is a drastic departure from last fall and December, which were warm. We've seen a number of cold days with multiple Arctic shots, which has been impressive.
Monday
We're seeing snow showers in parts of the state right now, and that will continue overnight, dropping a coating to an inch. If you are out early tomorrow, be careful on the roads as it could be icy. I'm not expecting many, if any, delays in the morning. The weak system should depart early, which will lead to a chilly, but increasingly sunny day with highs in the 30s.
Tuesday
The high resolution guidance wants to bring a period of light snow into the state early Tuesday as a weak clipper passes through, but this is a weak signal at best. At this time, I don't expect more than an inch. Again, I don't think we see widespread delays on Tuesday, and precip should clear quickly if we even see snow. This is probably the warmest day of the week, and it's not that warm to begin with. We're right back to Arctic chill after the passage of the clipper.
Monday
We're seeing snow showers in parts of the state right now, and that will continue overnight, dropping a coating to an inch. If you are out early tomorrow, be careful on the roads as it could be icy. I'm not expecting many, if any, delays in the morning. The weak system should depart early, which will lead to a chilly, but increasingly sunny day with highs in the 30s.
Tuesday
The high resolution guidance wants to bring a period of light snow into the state early Tuesday as a weak clipper passes through, but this is a weak signal at best. At this time, I don't expect more than an inch. Again, I don't think we see widespread delays on Tuesday, and precip should clear quickly if we even see snow. This is probably the warmest day of the week, and it's not that warm to begin with. We're right back to Arctic chill after the passage of the clipper.
Above: 18z GFS depiction of temperatures Tuesday through very early Friday. Note the chill that comes back in--as has been typical of the month--in the wake of our Tuesday clipper.
Wednesday-Friday
Cold and dry conditions will dominate as high pressure settles in. Wednesday should be the coldest day, but both Wednesday and Thursday should bring highs in the 20s. Wednesday night/Thursday morning look frigid and we need to watch the wind chills as cold air advects in. Temperatures will moderate Friday, but it'll still be chilly.
Saturday-Sunday
I'm not quite at the point of declaring the weekend a SCW Period of Interest, but that could be coming in another 2-3 days. Once again, we see a strong signal for a highly amplified coastal low to develop by the end of the workweek and track northward/northeast. From there, we have a lot to sort out.
At this range, the operational model runs aren't terribly important. The ensembles, which tweak initial conditions and run a number of simulations to put together an envelope of possibilities, are more valuable. Folks tracking this potential system shouldn't be getting caught up in the model runs that come every 6 hours. In fact, I'd advise caution with the ensembles as well because they will shift around too!
We're still an eternity out, but here's what I see so far and why I am writing so much about it now.
Wednesday-Friday
Cold and dry conditions will dominate as high pressure settles in. Wednesday should be the coldest day, but both Wednesday and Thursday should bring highs in the 20s. Wednesday night/Thursday morning look frigid and we need to watch the wind chills as cold air advects in. Temperatures will moderate Friday, but it'll still be chilly.
Saturday-Sunday
I'm not quite at the point of declaring the weekend a SCW Period of Interest, but that could be coming in another 2-3 days. Once again, we see a strong signal for a highly amplified coastal low to develop by the end of the workweek and track northward/northeast. From there, we have a lot to sort out.
At this range, the operational model runs aren't terribly important. The ensembles, which tweak initial conditions and run a number of simulations to put together an envelope of possibilities, are more valuable. Folks tracking this potential system shouldn't be getting caught up in the model runs that come every 6 hours. In fact, I'd advise caution with the ensembles as well because they will shift around too!
We're still an eternity out, but here's what I see so far and why I am writing so much about it now.
The first thing is that both the GEFS (top) and EPS (bottom) have a strong signal for a storm to develop. I think there's high confidence that something pops. The other thing, looking at the trend for Saturday, is that the ensembles have tucked closer to the coast, and seem to bring stronger lows closer to the region and kick the weaker ones out to sea. This is because without high latitude blocking, we need the northern and southern streams of the jet stream to phase, which would cause significant amplification (read: strengthening) of a low pressure system. The timing of the phase is what caused our earlier misses--too soon and too late led to inland and out to sea solutions.
Saturday looks like the primary day for something to happen, and as is usually the case, in the wake of the storm we clear out and get cold again.
I am not sold yet on a big storm hitting CT next weekend, but it's a legitimate possibility. If something comes our way, it's likely to be a big dog storm for someone along the East Coast. This is one worth watching, even at this range.
Saturday looks like the primary day for something to happen, and as is usually the case, in the wake of the storm we clear out and get cold again.
I am not sold yet on a big storm hitting CT next weekend, but it's a legitimate possibility. If something comes our way, it's likely to be a big dog storm for someone along the East Coast. This is one worth watching, even at this range.
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The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy early with a chance of snow showers. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 30%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy early with a chance of snow. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of snow 30%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, cold, and breezy. Highs in the low to mid 20s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the mid to upper 20s.
Friday: Increasing clouds. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Highs in the mid to upper 20s. Chance of snow 40%.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Monday: Mostly cloudy early with a chance of snow showers. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 30%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy early with a chance of snow. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of snow 30%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, cold, and breezy. Highs in the low to mid 20s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the mid to upper 20s.
Friday: Increasing clouds. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Highs in the mid to upper 20s. Chance of snow 40%.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
