Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
The weekend was pretty nice, with some minor showers on Saturday followed by clearing and a nice but brisk Sunday. The week ahead looks mostly quiet, with the big stories being the chilly conditions, particularly during the latter half of the week, and the potential of a weekend nor'easter which could bring heavy rain and wind.
Late Sunday-Monday
Tonight high pressure moves into the region and the windy conditions we've seen will subside. Combined with clear conditions, that will create radiational cooling that should allow most locations in Connecticut to drop below freezing. Because the growing season has ended with our freeze a few days ago, we do not have freeze headlines posted. Morning temperatures will bottom out in the 20s to low 30s, and the start to the work week looks nice, with temperatures rebounding to the low to mid 50s.
By Monday evening, we see a weak system begin to push into New England, that will be our weather maker for Tuesday. Monday night and Tuesday morning should not be as cold as tonight.
Tuesday
Tuesday does not look like a washout by any stretch, but showers are possible as that weak system pushes through the region. Most of the day looks dry, and we may even see some periods of clouds and sun. Tuesday also looks to be the warmest day of the work week, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.
The weekend was pretty nice, with some minor showers on Saturday followed by clearing and a nice but brisk Sunday. The week ahead looks mostly quiet, with the big stories being the chilly conditions, particularly during the latter half of the week, and the potential of a weekend nor'easter which could bring heavy rain and wind.
Late Sunday-Monday
Tonight high pressure moves into the region and the windy conditions we've seen will subside. Combined with clear conditions, that will create radiational cooling that should allow most locations in Connecticut to drop below freezing. Because the growing season has ended with our freeze a few days ago, we do not have freeze headlines posted. Morning temperatures will bottom out in the 20s to low 30s, and the start to the work week looks nice, with temperatures rebounding to the low to mid 50s.
By Monday evening, we see a weak system begin to push into New England, that will be our weather maker for Tuesday. Monday night and Tuesday morning should not be as cold as tonight.
Tuesday
Tuesday does not look like a washout by any stretch, but showers are possible as that weak system pushes through the region. Most of the day looks dry, and we may even see some periods of clouds and sun. Tuesday also looks to be the warmest day of the work week, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.
Above is a high resolution NAM depiction of Tuesday's showers. Not a whole lot of activity and even this may be overdone. Overall, Tuesday is anything but a washout or wet day.
Wednesday-Friday
We go back to seasonably chilly on Wednesday, and then back into well below normal temperatures on Thursday and Friday as an upper level trough and high pressure dominate the region. We will see cold beginning to funnel in from Canada. Wednesday's highs should be in the upper 40s to low 50s. It will feel colder with breezy conditions.
Thursday may be the coldest day of the season so far, with highs in the 40s. Thursday night and Friday morning are poised to be cold as well, with the potential for lows in the 20s across the state with the exception of the shoreline.
Friday should be well below normal as well, but temperatures will try to moderate a bit and highs may be closer to 50.
We go back to seasonably chilly on Wednesday, and then back into well below normal temperatures on Thursday and Friday as an upper level trough and high pressure dominate the region. We will see cold beginning to funnel in from Canada. Wednesday's highs should be in the upper 40s to low 50s. It will feel colder with breezy conditions.
Thursday may be the coldest day of the season so far, with highs in the 40s. Thursday night and Friday morning are poised to be cold as well, with the potential for lows in the 20s across the state with the exception of the shoreline.
Friday should be well below normal as well, but temperatures will try to moderate a bit and highs may be closer to 50.
Above is the 500mb height depiction for later this week. With this kind of trough in the east, we should see excellent delivery of cold air from Canada. That is reflected in the surface depiction below, also on Thursday, when we are expecting highs in the 40s and wind chills in the 30s statewide. It will feel like winter.
The Weekend
I'm going to go ahead and declare this an SCW period of interest. We have been hinting at this for days, and although we're still a ways out, we're close enough to start taking a serious look. Saturday looks to start out fine, with chilly but clear conditions. As the day progresses however, we should see increasing clouds with rain late Saturday through Sunday or Sunday into Monday.
There is still a split in the guidance on the timing, intensity, and Connecticut impact of any potential storm. With that in mind, this is worth watching future forecasts as we hone in on what will happen. Currently however, this looks like a rain event, with heavy rain and strong winds possible depending on the track and strength of the low. The guidance has leaned toward a strong storm, so we will be watching closely.
I'm going to go ahead and declare this an SCW period of interest. We have been hinting at this for days, and although we're still a ways out, we're close enough to start taking a serious look. Saturday looks to start out fine, with chilly but clear conditions. As the day progresses however, we should see increasing clouds with rain late Saturday through Sunday or Sunday into Monday.
There is still a split in the guidance on the timing, intensity, and Connecticut impact of any potential storm. With that in mind, this is worth watching future forecasts as we hone in on what will happen. Currently however, this looks like a rain event, with heavy rain and strong winds possible depending on the track and strength of the low. The guidance has leaned toward a strong storm, so we will be watching closely.
Rather than look at operational guidance that is only one run of one model, let's look at the European Ensembles (above) which provides us with a better sense of the potential spread in a forecast. Here, you'll see the Friday through early Monday period. The guidance overall has been consistent in developing a system in the south that moves northeast next weekend. In addition, you can also see an attempt at "phasing" from some Canadian energy from northwest. Any wintry precipitation with a coming storm looks unlikely at this point, but if this were winter...
The Dailies
Monday: Partly sunny and seasonably cool. Morning lows in the mid 20s to low 30s. Highs in the low to mid 50s.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 30%.
Wednesday: Partly sunny and seasonably cool. Breezy. Highs in the upper 40s (hill towns) to mid 50s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and cold. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
Friday: Partly cloudy and cold. Morning lows in the mid 20s to low 30s. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Saturday: SCW period of interest. Increasing clouds and rain chances late. Chance of rain 40%.
Sunday: SCW period of interest. Rainy and windy. Chance of rain 60%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB​
The Dailies
Monday: Partly sunny and seasonably cool. Morning lows in the mid 20s to low 30s. Highs in the low to mid 50s.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 30%.
Wednesday: Partly sunny and seasonably cool. Breezy. Highs in the upper 40s (hill towns) to mid 50s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and cold. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
Friday: Partly cloudy and cold. Morning lows in the mid 20s to low 30s. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Saturday: SCW period of interest. Increasing clouds and rain chances late. Chance of rain 40%.
Sunday: SCW period of interest. Rainy and windy. Chance of rain 60%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB​
