Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Hype season is already going strong as Thanksgiving week comes into view. If you were following some of the stuff on social media, this week was supposed to feature a huge storm followed by a massive attack of the dreaded Polar Vortex.
Of course, none of that was ever truly real. The reality is a lot more boring. The final week of November looks to feature seesawing temperatures and mostly quiet weather, but we will have a little precipitation to navigate along with some uncertainty on timing. Let's take a look at the facts and talk about one of the biggest travel holidays of the year!
Hype season is already going strong as Thanksgiving week comes into view. If you were following some of the stuff on social media, this week was supposed to feature a huge storm followed by a massive attack of the dreaded Polar Vortex.
Of course, none of that was ever truly real. The reality is a lot more boring. The final week of November looks to feature seesawing temperatures and mostly quiet weather, but we will have a little precipitation to navigate along with some uncertainty on timing. Let's take a look at the facts and talk about one of the biggest travel holidays of the year!
Above: the 18z European ensemble showing the likely 500mb pattern on Thanksgiving Day. This eventual outcome on the models--a more seasonable temperature regime after (wrongly) predicting warmth at long range, has been a frequent feature across guidance in recent months.
Monday-Wednesday
The start of the week is quiet. We will have a clipper system remain well to our north on Monday, and other than the chance of an isolated rain/snow shower, the day is seasonable and dry. There should be no travel issues in the state.
Tuesday we get a little unsettled. The guidance are in general agreement that another weak system will cross into the region on Tuesday, most likely bringing rain showers starting in the afternoon. Now, there is a bit of a discrepancy among that guidance on how meaningful this rainfall is, with the GFS, which was originally more robust (and accurate) on our Saturday system before losing the signal having heavier rain late Tuesday into early Wednesday, with the Euro and NAM weaker overall. I'm inclined to think that this is more meaningful rain, so expect rain showers that may be moderate to heavy at times late Tuesday afternoon and evening into at least early Wednesday.
Tuesday is a touch bit warmer than Monday, but there's not a heck of a lot of difference between temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s, and although our average high is dropping into the 40s now, that's still pretty seasonable.
Below are the 00z GFS, 00z NAM, and 18z Euro models for Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning. Note the subtle differences, even though the timing is generally the same. The GFS is most organized, which would lend itself to slightly more precipitation, with the Euro bringing more showery rainfall and the NAM least robust.
Monday-Wednesday
The start of the week is quiet. We will have a clipper system remain well to our north on Monday, and other than the chance of an isolated rain/snow shower, the day is seasonable and dry. There should be no travel issues in the state.
Tuesday we get a little unsettled. The guidance are in general agreement that another weak system will cross into the region on Tuesday, most likely bringing rain showers starting in the afternoon. Now, there is a bit of a discrepancy among that guidance on how meaningful this rainfall is, with the GFS, which was originally more robust (and accurate) on our Saturday system before losing the signal having heavier rain late Tuesday into early Wednesday, with the Euro and NAM weaker overall. I'm inclined to think that this is more meaningful rain, so expect rain showers that may be moderate to heavy at times late Tuesday afternoon and evening into at least early Wednesday.
Tuesday is a touch bit warmer than Monday, but there's not a heck of a lot of difference between temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s, and although our average high is dropping into the 40s now, that's still pretty seasonable.
Below are the 00z GFS, 00z NAM, and 18z Euro models for Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning. Note the subtle differences, even though the timing is generally the same. The GFS is most organized, which would lend itself to slightly more precipitation, with the Euro bringing more showery rainfall and the NAM least robust.
While there may be some lingering showers early on Wednesday, it looks like most of the day is dry. In fact, in advance of a front we should warm sector and may very well see temperatures that are meaningfully above normal--60 degrees is on the table! It won't last long.
Thanksgiving Day
Turkey day is where we have a bit of uncertainty on the models, but it isn't major. A strong front will be moving through the region, heralding the first stage of a pattern change. More on that later. On Thanksgiving, models like the GFS want to bring some rain showers in during the predawn hours before clearing things out before sunrise. The Euro was more dry, but the 00z run seemed to come around to the GFS idea.
Thanksgiving Day
Turkey day is where we have a bit of uncertainty on the models, but it isn't major. A strong front will be moving through the region, heralding the first stage of a pattern change. More on that later. On Thanksgiving, models like the GFS want to bring some rain showers in during the predawn hours before clearing things out before sunrise. The Euro was more dry, but the 00z run seemed to come around to the GFS idea.
Above: the 00z GFS showing rain showers in the very early morning Thursday.
With regard to temperatures, once the front moves through in the morning hours we will get a seasonably chilly Thanksgiving. We'll see the temperatures drop before daybreak as is usually the case, but temperatures will not rise much during the day, and will quickly fall after sunset. Highs look to be colder than normal and with colder air advecting in it could be a little breezy during the day. Overall however, I am not expecting any significant issues.
Friday-Sunday
Fortunately, the post-Thanksgiving period looks quiet for travelers in Connecticut. With colder air in place we may see some snow showers in the state on Friday. I'm not expecting anything significant from that. It may be more festive than anything, if there is even any residual moisture for snow. Otherwise, we're sunny and quiet.
The models split once again for the weekend, with the GFS trying to bring rain/snow showers into the region in advance of another storm system, while the Euro is dry. For now I think we're dry, but we'll keep an eye on it.
The Coming Pattern Change
We've seen about as traditional a step down from fall to winter as we've seen in years. At Hartford (BDL), September finished +0.9, October finished +1.0, and November is currently -1.8 and is poised to finish near normal if not slightly below.
Last September, October, and November finished +2.1, +4.3, and +6.0, respectively. There's been a lot of chatter about storminess and the Polar Vortex, but as I said recently, we have ample examples in the recent of past of pattern changes meaning absolutely nothing in snowfall production.
This coming pattern seems like the next step in our gradual transition to winter. A change in the Pacific pattern will allow for ridging in the west to develop, which will likely force cold from the Arctic down into the Midwest before moving east into our region after a final push of brief warmth. Importantly, the pattern looks to allow cold to build in our source region for cold in southeast Canada.
Now, will that mean a fast start to winter? It's way too soon to tell. It's also too soon to tell whether this is a durable pattern, or just more of the same that we've seen in recent winters when things looked good in the long range only to be middling for snow and cold in the short range. Expect much more discussion in the winter forecast, which will come out Thanksgiving week!
With regard to temperatures, once the front moves through in the morning hours we will get a seasonably chilly Thanksgiving. We'll see the temperatures drop before daybreak as is usually the case, but temperatures will not rise much during the day, and will quickly fall after sunset. Highs look to be colder than normal and with colder air advecting in it could be a little breezy during the day. Overall however, I am not expecting any significant issues.
Friday-Sunday
Fortunately, the post-Thanksgiving period looks quiet for travelers in Connecticut. With colder air in place we may see some snow showers in the state on Friday. I'm not expecting anything significant from that. It may be more festive than anything, if there is even any residual moisture for snow. Otherwise, we're sunny and quiet.
The models split once again for the weekend, with the GFS trying to bring rain/snow showers into the region in advance of another storm system, while the Euro is dry. For now I think we're dry, but we'll keep an eye on it.
The Coming Pattern Change
We've seen about as traditional a step down from fall to winter as we've seen in years. At Hartford (BDL), September finished +0.9, October finished +1.0, and November is currently -1.8 and is poised to finish near normal if not slightly below.
Last September, October, and November finished +2.1, +4.3, and +6.0, respectively. There's been a lot of chatter about storminess and the Polar Vortex, but as I said recently, we have ample examples in the recent of past of pattern changes meaning absolutely nothing in snowfall production.
This coming pattern seems like the next step in our gradual transition to winter. A change in the Pacific pattern will allow for ridging in the west to develop, which will likely force cold from the Arctic down into the Midwest before moving east into our region after a final push of brief warmth. Importantly, the pattern looks to allow cold to build in our source region for cold in southeast Canada.
Now, will that mean a fast start to winter? It's way too soon to tell. It's also too soon to tell whether this is a durable pattern, or just more of the same that we've seen in recent winters when things looked good in the long range only to be middling for snow and cold in the short range. Expect much more discussion in the winter forecast, which will come out Thanksgiving week!
Above: Various Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks on December.
The Dailies
Monday: Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low 50s. Chance of rain 70%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and warmer. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 30%.
Thanksgiving Day: Mostly sunny, colder, and breezy. Daytime highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Friday: Mostly sunny and breezy. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of snow showers 20%.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
The Dailies
Monday: Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low 50s. Chance of rain 70%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and warmer. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 30%.
Thanksgiving Day: Mostly sunny, colder, and breezy. Daytime highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Friday: Mostly sunny and breezy. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of snow showers 20%.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
