Disc: Pardon me if this discussion is shorter than average, but there really isn't anything to write about. The weather over the next two weeks will feel more like Sept than Nov.
Currently: The Eastern CONUS map is about as quiet as one could ever expect. The last vestiges of a warm front are headed thru Maine, and a large 1040 high is anchored over the Canadian Maritimes.
Tonight: Mid to high level clouds will rotate across the area. For that reason, and a higher starting point, low temps will not be nearly as cold as previous days. Since I do think the cloud layer will be a bit translucent, I still think it could wind up a deg or two lwr than gdnc. Wl hv to watch the S coast for the potential for fog, as temps there shud be warm and stay nr the dew point. Lows should range from the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Tomorrow: I will run out of ways to say sunny and warm. There is no real meteorological reasoning to deviate too much from guidance. However, since the past few days verified warmer than guidance, I'll go a deg or two warmer in spots. Look for highs generally in the upper 60s.
Tomorrow night/Sat: More of the same. Guidance followed vry closely for temps. So look for highs in the upper 60s once again.
Long Term: The long term focuses on a potential rain event next Wed, otherwise a continuation of warm and dry. Eta is expected to linger in the Gulf Of Mexico before finally getting ejected north in about 10 days in one form or another. That means that a series of cold fronts that go thru the region could tap into moisture from Eta, which would result in more Gulf moisture than normal. So here goes:
For Sun, another sunny day, and stayed close to guidance, with highs in the upper 60s.
For Mon, again stayed close to guidance on temps, but I went a degree or two higher in spots. Some clouds may drift across the region, but they're high-based, so they should have less of an impact on temps than normal. So once again, xpct highs in the upper 60s.
Good warm air advection ahead of the next system on Tuesday. I think models could be underdoing that and trending too much toward climo in that range. So I'll go a cpl deg abv gdnc, and call for highs in the upper 60s, xcpt nr 70 in the I 91 corridor.
Next rain event is slated for Wed. How much moisture gets drawn in from Eta will determine how much rain we get. The latest GFS backed way off, but prev runs were much wetter. The NBM is very wet. Precipitable water is much abv norm- a given w/the warm, juicy air mass. Therefore, I do not buy the latest GFS run and will go w/the wetter solutions. That said, nothing is ever set in stone on Day 6. For temps, I went close to guidance, but maybe a degree or two cooler in spots, given clouds and rain. So look for highs generally in the mid 60s, but maybe a deg or two higher if we get any sun.
For Thu, I think models are too cloudy. We should clear up at least for several hours behind Wed's rain. Therefore, I went a degree or two warmer on temps. It should be a bit cooler, but even so, highs will still be near 60, xcpt maybe even some low 60s in the I 91 corridor.
In the long range, there could be a 5-7 day period of largely unsettled weather, as frontal boundaries set up near/over the region. After that, we should cool at least to slightly above normal, instead of well above normal. Hwvr, I don't see any evidence of any real cold air, as long as the high pressure systems continue to be of Pacific origin.
Now, let's take a look at some graphical images of weather that will affect the region in the upcoming week. I have only one graphic to post this week, since it's so quiet. The image you're about to see is actually the Canadian model, showing how an interaction between Eta, modeled near Tampa on this model, can attract moisture into our system for Wed.
Currently: The Eastern CONUS map is about as quiet as one could ever expect. The last vestiges of a warm front are headed thru Maine, and a large 1040 high is anchored over the Canadian Maritimes.
Tonight: Mid to high level clouds will rotate across the area. For that reason, and a higher starting point, low temps will not be nearly as cold as previous days. Since I do think the cloud layer will be a bit translucent, I still think it could wind up a deg or two lwr than gdnc. Wl hv to watch the S coast for the potential for fog, as temps there shud be warm and stay nr the dew point. Lows should range from the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Tomorrow: I will run out of ways to say sunny and warm. There is no real meteorological reasoning to deviate too much from guidance. However, since the past few days verified warmer than guidance, I'll go a deg or two warmer in spots. Look for highs generally in the upper 60s.
Tomorrow night/Sat: More of the same. Guidance followed vry closely for temps. So look for highs in the upper 60s once again.
Long Term: The long term focuses on a potential rain event next Wed, otherwise a continuation of warm and dry. Eta is expected to linger in the Gulf Of Mexico before finally getting ejected north in about 10 days in one form or another. That means that a series of cold fronts that go thru the region could tap into moisture from Eta, which would result in more Gulf moisture than normal. So here goes:
For Sun, another sunny day, and stayed close to guidance, with highs in the upper 60s.
For Mon, again stayed close to guidance on temps, but I went a degree or two higher in spots. Some clouds may drift across the region, but they're high-based, so they should have less of an impact on temps than normal. So once again, xpct highs in the upper 60s.
Good warm air advection ahead of the next system on Tuesday. I think models could be underdoing that and trending too much toward climo in that range. So I'll go a cpl deg abv gdnc, and call for highs in the upper 60s, xcpt nr 70 in the I 91 corridor.
Next rain event is slated for Wed. How much moisture gets drawn in from Eta will determine how much rain we get. The latest GFS backed way off, but prev runs were much wetter. The NBM is very wet. Precipitable water is much abv norm- a given w/the warm, juicy air mass. Therefore, I do not buy the latest GFS run and will go w/the wetter solutions. That said, nothing is ever set in stone on Day 6. For temps, I went close to guidance, but maybe a degree or two cooler in spots, given clouds and rain. So look for highs generally in the mid 60s, but maybe a deg or two higher if we get any sun.
For Thu, I think models are too cloudy. We should clear up at least for several hours behind Wed's rain. Therefore, I went a degree or two warmer on temps. It should be a bit cooler, but even so, highs will still be near 60, xcpt maybe even some low 60s in the I 91 corridor.
In the long range, there could be a 5-7 day period of largely unsettled weather, as frontal boundaries set up near/over the region. After that, we should cool at least to slightly above normal, instead of well above normal. Hwvr, I don't see any evidence of any real cold air, as long as the high pressure systems continue to be of Pacific origin.
Now, let's take a look at some graphical images of weather that will affect the region in the upcoming week. I have only one graphic to post this week, since it's so quiet. The image you're about to see is actually the Canadian model, showing how an interaction between Eta, modeled near Tampa on this model, can attract moisture into our system for Wed.
Anyway, that's all for now! Take care and I'll see you next week!
-GP!
-GP!
