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Much needed rain today and tomorrow, followed by a quiet but seasonably warm week...

9/18/2016

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Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather!

This is going to be a short post. The only game in town for the next seven days is an approaching front that will give us some much needed rain today in the form of showers and (hopefully) a much more substantial push of moisture on Monday.
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Current radar showing showers pushing across western Connecticut. These showers could fizzle as they push across the state this afternoon, but I'm expecting more widespread rains tonight and into tomorrow. 

Unfortunately, for many, these rainy conditions will not put much of a dent in Connecticut's drought, which has moved into the severe category for most. I tend to be wary of drought talk in the northeast, structurally we're in a much better position for getting moisture than say, California, but this drought has had a real impact in our region.
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Sunday/Monday
Today still looks like a decent day, with the timing of the real rain showing down with the latest guidance. Expect the cloudy and humid Sunday to continue, with a chance of showers. As the front approaches from the west, a plume of tropical moisture will work its way into our region and give us a chance of heavier showers, thunderstorms, and downpours tomorrow. I think the best timing for our showers/rain will be tomorrow morning into early afternoon. To be clear, showers are likely to continue into tomorrow afternoon and maybe even Tuesday morning, but the bulk of the precip falls between late tonight and early afternoon Monday. It's an umbrella day. 
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High resolution NAM showing the idea of lingering showers today, but a better chance for storms and downpours tomorrow morning before diminished activity by tomorrow evening. 

Overall, I am expecting a broad half-inch to inch of rain across the state, with more in the northwest zone and along the coast. Some spots could receive more depending on where the downpours setup and remain. 

Tuesday
Tuesday looks like a transition day, with showers potentially lingering early, and another warm, humid, day before high pressure takes over the rest of the week. 
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GFS depiction of surface temperature anomalies on Tuesday. Looks warm. 

Wednesday-Saturday
After Tuesday, the rest of the week looks great! High pressure takes over and we get seasonably warm and drier conditions.

The dailies
Sunday: Mostly cloudy and humid with a chance of showers. Chance of rain late. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 60%. 

Monday: 
Mostly cloudy and humid with occasional rain and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 80%. 

Tuesday:
Chance of showers early giving way to sunny and warm conditions. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain early 30%

Wednesday:
Mostly sunny and seasonably warm. Highs in the low 80s. 

Thursday: 
Mostly sunny and seasonably warm. Highs in the low 80s. 

Friday: 
Mostly sunny and seasonably warm. Highs in the low 80s. 

Saturday: 
Mostly sunny and cooler. Highs in the low to mid 70s. 

Thanks for reading and have a great week!

-DB
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    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

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