Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
It's hard to believe, but we are reaching the end of meteorological summer, which lasts from June through August. This week will see a transition to fall, as we see warmth to end August, cooler temperatures by Labor Day Weekend, and another chance for heavy rain as we track the remnants of powerful Hurricane Ida, which made landfall in Louisiana earlier today with 150 mph winds. There's a lot to discuss! Let's dive in.
It's hard to believe, but we are reaching the end of meteorological summer, which lasts from June through August. This week will see a transition to fall, as we see warmth to end August, cooler temperatures by Labor Day Weekend, and another chance for heavy rain as we track the remnants of powerful Hurricane Ida, which made landfall in Louisiana earlier today with 150 mph winds. There's a lot to discuss! Let's dive in.
Above: the GFS Ensemble forecast for accumulated rain over the course of the week. You can see pretty easily how much the remnants of Ida will impact precipitation over the eastern US. Right now, CT is just on the edge of seeing another significant rain event but as it stands we're in for another wet week.
Monday
Tomorrow looks unsettled, but the chances of rain are a bit more limited, like what we saw on Saturday. Although the day isn't looking like a washout, a warm front will be pushing through the state and bring heat and humidity. In fact, we are likely to see oppressive heat and warmer than normal temperatures for this time of year, with heat indices likely in the 90s.
While the guidance is not bullish on our rain chances, it looks like it will be a fairly decent CAPE (instability) day. That will open the door to thunderstorm chances in the afternoon, but it looks like there will not be enough shear to organize storms much. As a result, what pops up will probably be a heavy rain maker and may have gusty winds, but we are unlikely to see widespread or even scattered severe thunderstorms. Still, it's something we'll be paying attention to.
Monday
Tomorrow looks unsettled, but the chances of rain are a bit more limited, like what we saw on Saturday. Although the day isn't looking like a washout, a warm front will be pushing through the state and bring heat and humidity. In fact, we are likely to see oppressive heat and warmer than normal temperatures for this time of year, with heat indices likely in the 90s.
While the guidance is not bullish on our rain chances, it looks like it will be a fairly decent CAPE (instability) day. That will open the door to thunderstorm chances in the afternoon, but it looks like there will not be enough shear to organize storms much. As a result, what pops up will probably be a heavy rain maker and may have gusty winds, but we are unlikely to see widespread or even scattered severe thunderstorms. Still, it's something we'll be paying attention to.
Above: the latest high resolution NAM showing...not a whole lot between noon and midnight tomorrow. It might be underselling this however, so we will have some decent odds for rain and thunderstorms tomorrow.
Tuesday
The last day of meteorological summer looks warmer than normal as well with highs in the 80s, but we should see a little less humidity. High pressure will be in place but this will be brief. Generally, it will be a nice day with a some breaks in the clouds.
Tuesday
The last day of meteorological summer looks warmer than normal as well with highs in the 80s, but we should see a little less humidity. High pressure will be in place but this will be brief. Generally, it will be a nice day with a some breaks in the clouds.
Wednesday-Thursday
I'm declaring this a SCW Period of Interest. During this period, we are most likely to be impacted by the remnants of Hurricane Ida. This has been quite an active year for CT with regard to tropical impacts and remnant impacts, as we've seen Tropical Storm Elsa, the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred, Tropical Storm Henri, and now the remnants of Hurricane Ida. The prior systems have left us waterlogged, and the overall setup for Ida's rain looks robust for heavy rain.
I'm declaring this a SCW Period of Interest. During this period, we are most likely to be impacted by the remnants of Hurricane Ida. This has been quite an active year for CT with regard to tropical impacts and remnant impacts, as we've seen Tropical Storm Elsa, the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred, Tropical Storm Henri, and now the remnants of Hurricane Ida. The prior systems have left us waterlogged, and the overall setup for Ida's rain looks robust for heavy rain.
Above is the 18z GFS depiction of the next few days, covering Wednesday and Thursday. This is a surface depiction, so many of you won't see the other features at play, but here's the breakdown:
Ida continues moving through Louisiana and the south over the next few days, weakening to a remnant (post-tropical) low pressure system. Recall what I said during Henri--that rain from a tropical system winds down much slower than wind.
As the remnants of Ida move northeast around a large ridge, it interacts or merges with a trough coming through the midwest. What this essentially means is that the remnants of Ida get a bit of a "charge". This is aided by the presence of a frontal boundary across our region as the system approaches on Wednesday/Thursday.
This is the kind of setup that can bring a lot of rainfall. The position of the boundary and track will be critical to the rainfall potential and what eventually falls. We will be watching closely as flash flooding will be possible.
For now, with the uncertainty on the heaviest rain axis, we are going to go with a general 1-3" of rain on Wednesday/Thursday, with the heaviest rain falling late Wednesday into early Thursday, but some signals and the official WPC forecast is higher.
We will be updating this forecast as we gather more information. We are not expecting significant wind at this time, but we will be watching the strength of the low. The European Model really tries to amp up the Ghost of Ida as it gets close to New England, so we will need to watch trends as Ida and the trough get closer to interacting.
Below: the 18z Euro out to hour 90, with a fairly strong low bringing heavy rain to CT on Thursday.
Ida continues moving through Louisiana and the south over the next few days, weakening to a remnant (post-tropical) low pressure system. Recall what I said during Henri--that rain from a tropical system winds down much slower than wind.
As the remnants of Ida move northeast around a large ridge, it interacts or merges with a trough coming through the midwest. What this essentially means is that the remnants of Ida get a bit of a "charge". This is aided by the presence of a frontal boundary across our region as the system approaches on Wednesday/Thursday.
This is the kind of setup that can bring a lot of rainfall. The position of the boundary and track will be critical to the rainfall potential and what eventually falls. We will be watching closely as flash flooding will be possible.
For now, with the uncertainty on the heaviest rain axis, we are going to go with a general 1-3" of rain on Wednesday/Thursday, with the heaviest rain falling late Wednesday into early Thursday, but some signals and the official WPC forecast is higher.
We will be updating this forecast as we gather more information. We are not expecting significant wind at this time, but we will be watching the strength of the low. The European Model really tries to amp up the Ghost of Ida as it gets close to New England, so we will need to watch trends as Ida and the trough get closer to interacting.
Below: the 18z Euro out to hour 90, with a fairly strong low bringing heavy rain to CT on Thursday.
Labor Day Weekend (Friday-Sunday)
Like many tropical systems, we clear out after Ida's remnants pass through the region. It will feel like fall! High pressure will take over and we expect near to below normal temperatures with highs in the low to mid 70s, low humidity, and sunny skies. It's a little outside of the forecast period, but we will be watching a little area of low pressure approach from the Midwest. For now, no serious concerns about anything close to the cold washouts we had Memorial Day...or Independence Day...weekend. Happy Fall!
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy, warm, and humid, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 40%.
Tuesday: Partly sunny and warm. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 70%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 70%.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low 70s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
Sunday: Partly sunny early with increasing clouds. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 20%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Like many tropical systems, we clear out after Ida's remnants pass through the region. It will feel like fall! High pressure will take over and we expect near to below normal temperatures with highs in the low to mid 70s, low humidity, and sunny skies. It's a little outside of the forecast period, but we will be watching a little area of low pressure approach from the Midwest. For now, no serious concerns about anything close to the cold washouts we had Memorial Day...or Independence Day...weekend. Happy Fall!
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy, warm, and humid, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 40%.
Tuesday: Partly sunny and warm. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 70%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 70%.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low 70s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
Sunday: Partly sunny early with increasing clouds. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 20%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
