Disc: Sorry if I am not going to go too deep into detail with every event, but when you have 3-4 in one potential forecast period and a few after that, there's only so much time to write about each one! Pattern over the next 7-10 days summed up in a few words: colder than normal with a snow threat every few days!
Currently: High pressure near Pittsburgh keeping us high and dry today. A cold front with multiple waves on it stretches from Joplin, MO, up to Dubuque, IA, and then up into Canada. That will be tomorrow's weather maker.
First, tonight, went a couple deg above guidance. It could be one of those nights where the low temp is actually before midnight, but the daily lo tomorrow is a deg or two higher, esp over Wrn Ct. Lows should range in the 20s, except near 30 along the immediate SE coast. Clouds increase with some warm air advection developing overnight.
Tomorrow: NBM guidance looks ridiculously warm, given that the low pressure is weak and passing well to our west, plus we have deep snowpack. I subtracted about five degrees from it, which yields highs in the mid to upper 30s. I don't think we're going to bother with a snowmap, since this is such a light event, but a burst of snow is possible tomorrow, mainly in the morning. The snow could end as sleet and rain, esp S CT. Accumulations should be light throughout the state, less than an inch. The biggest risk could be some freezing rain, but I think that risk has been mitigated a bit, for two reasons. First, there is a cold layer aloft, which may support snow or sleet as the precipitation type, rather than rain. Secondly, surface temps should quickly rise above freezing when precip ends. It still may be something to watch, however, in deep valleys and in the highlands of NW and NE CT.
Tomorrow night/Sat: Calmer period between systems. Plenty of sun, but went a couple deg below temp guidance. It seems to be the NBM seems to handle snowcover even worse than the old MOS guidance. So much for an upgrade! Anyway, that's why there will always be a need for meteorologists! Highs should be in the upper 30s.
Long Term: Several event possibilities in the long term. The first one is on Sunday, as soon as the long term period starts. Models have ticked well west with the upcoming coastal storm potential. The GFS and ECMWF are in fair agreement for a moderate event along the S coast and little or nothing N of 84. The GGEM is still out to sea, but is over 200 miles west of where it was last run. The NAM is well west and would suggest a significant event for the S coast and light amounts all the way into Mass. I will take a compromise between the two globals and the NAM at this point, due to the fact that this is trending west. I will ignore the GGEM, since it disagrees with everything, as well as its own ensembles. Therefore. the thinking right now is that accumulating snow is likely S of I-84, with a moderate or higher event possible along the S coast, and small chances of accumulating snow N of I 84. Keep in mind, this is not a final solution, since models have ticked way north and west in their last runs. Should that continue, a moderate to significant event would be possible throughout the state. Should the models adjust south a bit, then this forecast would be close, with maybe a slight adjustment south. Stay tuned to SCTWX for more details as this event draws closer! As for temps, I went 3-5 deg lower than the NBM, and if the snowier fcst verifies, this may still be too high! Anyway, for now I have highs of 30-35 for Sun.
Monday should be a fair day in between systems. Once again, I went a few deg lower than the NBM guidance. It will be cold, with highs of 25-30 degrees.
Tue-Thu: I broadbrushed this period. The ECMWF has some light snow Tues, while the GFS has some light snow early Thu. There is a low pressure system near the east coast during this period. It tries to cut to the west, but due to the block up north, it either gets sheared out or redevelops off the coast. Right now, the models favor the former scenario, which would keep it cooler, but also shear out the precip. That could very well be right. But we may also have to keep an eye on it for potential redevelopment, which would yield a much bigger storm than advertised here. Just something to keep in mind. As for temps, I went well below guidance Tue and Wed, and then close to guidance Thu, given it's day 7. Obviously, a stronger storm could require big adjustments one way or the other. Anyway, this would yield highs in the upper 20s Tue, mid 30s Wed, and near 30 Thu.
Next weekend (Fri-Sun) just outside of the fcst period, but I wanted to give a heads up! Models, as well as the pattern, support a large, very cold East Coast low during this period. Translation: Chance for more snow, perhaps a lot of it! Most likely the timing would be near the earlier 1/2 of this period, but that is still up in the air. Stay tuned!
Now, for some graphics. I will post tomorrow's small event and Sunday's perhaps larger winter threat to cover everything here, courtesy of the GFS model, which is near the middle of the pack for both events, so it serves its purpose today. Here is the GFS for tomorrow morning. You can see light precip, probably snow and sleet, getting ready to move in. But it is not heavy and does not last long.
Currently: High pressure near Pittsburgh keeping us high and dry today. A cold front with multiple waves on it stretches from Joplin, MO, up to Dubuque, IA, and then up into Canada. That will be tomorrow's weather maker.
First, tonight, went a couple deg above guidance. It could be one of those nights where the low temp is actually before midnight, but the daily lo tomorrow is a deg or two higher, esp over Wrn Ct. Lows should range in the 20s, except near 30 along the immediate SE coast. Clouds increase with some warm air advection developing overnight.
Tomorrow: NBM guidance looks ridiculously warm, given that the low pressure is weak and passing well to our west, plus we have deep snowpack. I subtracted about five degrees from it, which yields highs in the mid to upper 30s. I don't think we're going to bother with a snowmap, since this is such a light event, but a burst of snow is possible tomorrow, mainly in the morning. The snow could end as sleet and rain, esp S CT. Accumulations should be light throughout the state, less than an inch. The biggest risk could be some freezing rain, but I think that risk has been mitigated a bit, for two reasons. First, there is a cold layer aloft, which may support snow or sleet as the precipitation type, rather than rain. Secondly, surface temps should quickly rise above freezing when precip ends. It still may be something to watch, however, in deep valleys and in the highlands of NW and NE CT.
Tomorrow night/Sat: Calmer period between systems. Plenty of sun, but went a couple deg below temp guidance. It seems to be the NBM seems to handle snowcover even worse than the old MOS guidance. So much for an upgrade! Anyway, that's why there will always be a need for meteorologists! Highs should be in the upper 30s.
Long Term: Several event possibilities in the long term. The first one is on Sunday, as soon as the long term period starts. Models have ticked well west with the upcoming coastal storm potential. The GFS and ECMWF are in fair agreement for a moderate event along the S coast and little or nothing N of 84. The GGEM is still out to sea, but is over 200 miles west of where it was last run. The NAM is well west and would suggest a significant event for the S coast and light amounts all the way into Mass. I will take a compromise between the two globals and the NAM at this point, due to the fact that this is trending west. I will ignore the GGEM, since it disagrees with everything, as well as its own ensembles. Therefore. the thinking right now is that accumulating snow is likely S of I-84, with a moderate or higher event possible along the S coast, and small chances of accumulating snow N of I 84. Keep in mind, this is not a final solution, since models have ticked way north and west in their last runs. Should that continue, a moderate to significant event would be possible throughout the state. Should the models adjust south a bit, then this forecast would be close, with maybe a slight adjustment south. Stay tuned to SCTWX for more details as this event draws closer! As for temps, I went 3-5 deg lower than the NBM, and if the snowier fcst verifies, this may still be too high! Anyway, for now I have highs of 30-35 for Sun.
Monday should be a fair day in between systems. Once again, I went a few deg lower than the NBM guidance. It will be cold, with highs of 25-30 degrees.
Tue-Thu: I broadbrushed this period. The ECMWF has some light snow Tues, while the GFS has some light snow early Thu. There is a low pressure system near the east coast during this period. It tries to cut to the west, but due to the block up north, it either gets sheared out or redevelops off the coast. Right now, the models favor the former scenario, which would keep it cooler, but also shear out the precip. That could very well be right. But we may also have to keep an eye on it for potential redevelopment, which would yield a much bigger storm than advertised here. Just something to keep in mind. As for temps, I went well below guidance Tue and Wed, and then close to guidance Thu, given it's day 7. Obviously, a stronger storm could require big adjustments one way or the other. Anyway, this would yield highs in the upper 20s Tue, mid 30s Wed, and near 30 Thu.
Next weekend (Fri-Sun) just outside of the fcst period, but I wanted to give a heads up! Models, as well as the pattern, support a large, very cold East Coast low during this period. Translation: Chance for more snow, perhaps a lot of it! Most likely the timing would be near the earlier 1/2 of this period, but that is still up in the air. Stay tuned!
Now, for some graphics. I will post tomorrow's small event and Sunday's perhaps larger winter threat to cover everything here, courtesy of the GFS model, which is near the middle of the pack for both events, so it serves its purpose today. Here is the GFS for tomorrow morning. You can see light precip, probably snow and sleet, getting ready to move in. But it is not heavy and does not last long.
Next, this map is valid midday Sunday. You can see with a track like that, S CT would be favored for potentially higher snow amounts. But this is very preliminary and subject to change.
Anyway, that's all for now, see you next time!
-GP!
-GP!
