Happy New Year’s Eve from Southern Connecticut Weather!
With a wild 2016 winding down I’m expecting one more shot of precipitation for your festivities tonight. The week ahead is uncertain, with a bit of a roller coaster ride in terms of temperatures and conditions and yes, we are watching the potential of a winter storm by the end of the week.
New Year’s Eve
With a wild 2016 winding down I’m expecting one more shot of precipitation for your festivities tonight. The week ahead is uncertain, with a bit of a roller coaster ride in terms of temperatures and conditions and yes, we are watching the potential of a winter storm by the end of the week.
New Year’s Eve
RGEM depiction of this evening and overnight. This model, along with other high resolution and short term models, show the potential for light accumulations in the northwest and northeast part of the state tonight.
My main “concern” this week is for tonight, as a clipper crosses northern New England. With that track, we have a mixed bag scenario likely to unfold, with rain at the shore, a mix in the valleys, and snow possible in the elevation spots in northwest and northeast Connecticut.
Timing
I expect light rain/snow showers to arrive between 7pm and midnight, lasting through the early morning hours. I expect the precipitation to remain mostly light and to be gone by sunrise. I wouldn’t cancel plans, but the timing and temperatures hovering around freezing require everyone to take it easy on the roads and sidewalks tonight.
Accumulations
Generally, I think we’re talking about a coating to maybe an inch in the elevation spots, but the high-resolution guidance has had upwards of two inches of snow falling tonight. I think that’s overdone—these systems are usually moisture starved and I’m not sure we get good enough lift to squeeze out an overperformer, but be aware of the (low) potential. Regardless, I expect slick conditions on the road tonight virtually everywhere, so drive safely!
New Year’s Day
Tomorrow looks like a great day, after the precipitation clears late tonight I expect seasonable temperatures and clear conditions tomorrow.
Monday/Tuesday
The early part of next week is active as—stop me if you’ve heard this before—a storm cuts to our west. With it, temperatures from Monday to Tuesday rise quite a bit, with temperatures on Tuesday rising above normal for this time of year. Monday could be a mostly dry day, with some rain showers or even some brief light mixed precipitation in colder spots, but by Tuesday and early Wednesday we are in the rain. It could be a decent rainmaker, which is important as we are still locked in the grip of a drought.
My main “concern” this week is for tonight, as a clipper crosses northern New England. With that track, we have a mixed bag scenario likely to unfold, with rain at the shore, a mix in the valleys, and snow possible in the elevation spots in northwest and northeast Connecticut.
Timing
I expect light rain/snow showers to arrive between 7pm and midnight, lasting through the early morning hours. I expect the precipitation to remain mostly light and to be gone by sunrise. I wouldn’t cancel plans, but the timing and temperatures hovering around freezing require everyone to take it easy on the roads and sidewalks tonight.
Accumulations
Generally, I think we’re talking about a coating to maybe an inch in the elevation spots, but the high-resolution guidance has had upwards of two inches of snow falling tonight. I think that’s overdone—these systems are usually moisture starved and I’m not sure we get good enough lift to squeeze out an overperformer, but be aware of the (low) potential. Regardless, I expect slick conditions on the road tonight virtually everywhere, so drive safely!
New Year’s Day
Tomorrow looks like a great day, after the precipitation clears late tonight I expect seasonable temperatures and clear conditions tomorrow.
Monday/Tuesday
The early part of next week is active as—stop me if you’ve heard this before—a storm cuts to our west. With it, temperatures from Monday to Tuesday rise quite a bit, with temperatures on Tuesday rising above normal for this time of year. Monday could be a mostly dry day, with some rain showers or even some brief light mixed precipitation in colder spots, but by Tuesday and early Wednesday we are in the rain. It could be a decent rainmaker, which is important as we are still locked in the grip of a drought.
GFS depiction of early next week. There has been a strong signal for a rainer on the guidance for the last few days.
Wednesday/Thursday
The middle of the week looks quiet in terms of sensible weather, with no precipitation expected. However, the temperatures will seesaw, with warmer conditions Wednesday giving way to northwest flow and colder and near to below normal temps by Thursday.
Friday/Saturday
As I mentioned at the start of this post, I am watching the potential next weekend of a storm. However, the usual caveats apply. We’re forever away as this is at least a week out and the recent trend has been a total 180, from a potential significant winter weather event toward a total nonevent. Suppression depression. Right now, this period is barely worth casual attention, but I’ll be watching in case things change.
Thanks for reading. I’ll have the next installment of the SCW two-week outlook out tomorrow!
The dailies
New Year’s Eve: Increasing clouds with rain and snow showers by the evening and overnight hours. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
New Year’s Day: Rain/snow showers ending early. Breezy early but turning nicer as the day progresses. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of precipitation early 50%.
Monday: Increasing clouds with rain showers by afternoon. Highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s at the shore. Chance of rain 70%.
Tuesday: Rain. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain 90%.
Wednesday: Rain ending early. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain early 40%.
Thursday: Sunny and colder. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Friday: Sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Saturday: Partly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the mid to upper 20s. Chance of snow 10%.
-DB
Wednesday/Thursday
The middle of the week looks quiet in terms of sensible weather, with no precipitation expected. However, the temperatures will seesaw, with warmer conditions Wednesday giving way to northwest flow and colder and near to below normal temps by Thursday.
Friday/Saturday
As I mentioned at the start of this post, I am watching the potential next weekend of a storm. However, the usual caveats apply. We’re forever away as this is at least a week out and the recent trend has been a total 180, from a potential significant winter weather event toward a total nonevent. Suppression depression. Right now, this period is barely worth casual attention, but I’ll be watching in case things change.
Thanks for reading. I’ll have the next installment of the SCW two-week outlook out tomorrow!
The dailies
New Year’s Eve: Increasing clouds with rain and snow showers by the evening and overnight hours. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
New Year’s Day: Rain/snow showers ending early. Breezy early but turning nicer as the day progresses. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of precipitation early 50%.
Monday: Increasing clouds with rain showers by afternoon. Highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s at the shore. Chance of rain 70%.
Tuesday: Rain. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain 90%.
Wednesday: Rain ending early. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain early 40%.
Thursday: Sunny and colder. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Friday: Sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Saturday: Partly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the mid to upper 20s. Chance of snow 10%.
-DB
