Disc: There will be several rain events to track over the next week or so, but at least as of now, they seem to be light and nothing of significant consequence. All in all, the pattern appears to be slipping into more of a winter regime, but more on that below.
Currently: A weak cold front has crossed the area. Behind the front, high pressure stretches from near Saint Joseph, Missouri, to near Evansville, Indiana. A weak low pressure wave has formed along the front over NE VA, but this low is so weak that it will be of little consequence to anyone.
Tonight: With fresh cold air advection and clear skies, temperatures will fall and this will probably be the coldest night of the season tomorrow. Low temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 30s- perhaps a few upper 20s in the NW Hills and upper 30s to near 40 along the immediate south coast and in the cities.
Tomorrow: A chilly one, given the cold start and clouds increasing ahead of approaching warm front. Light rain showers are possible in the afternoon, especially in the NW portion of the state- call it sprinkle in SW CT and nothing E of I 91.
Tomorrow Night/Thu: Much warmer. Could be a shower or even brief t-storm at any time in the NW Hills, where dynamics look best. Sprinkles across the rest of W CT limited to the morning hours on Thursday. E of I 91, there are literally no dynamics, and I'll keep it dry. Since I am going cloudier and wetter than most guidance, I'll go a little cooler than most guidance, as well, but either way, it will be much warmer, with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Long Term- the weekend and beyond: Two cold fronts dominate the forecast during this time period- the first one later in the day on Friday and the second during the day on Monday. The latter is more significant, as far as sensible weather goes, but even the first will see a significant change in temperatures. Friday's front is fairly moisture starved, so just a sprinkle or very light rain shower will be possible in the afternoon. Temperatures should still be fairly warm ahead of the cold front, as there will still be a decent amount of sun. Generally look for highs in the mid 60s on Friday, with a few upper 60s in the usual warm spots- the cities and I 91 corridor.
At this time, it appears the weekend should be fairly dry, as models have backed off on any coastal low development. However, given that today is only Tuesday, I would still keep that "old solution" in the back of my mind and not back off on it 100%. For now, though, Saturday looks like a nice fall day, with highs between 60-65 and plenty of sun. Sunday will be chilly, with an increase in clouds and highs generally in the mid 50s.
On Monday, a strong cold front will approach and this will likely trigger at least a round of moderate or maybe heavy showers. If this front slows, it is possible that a larger coastal storm forms along the front. It could be that the models initially were focusing on the weekend, then totally lose a system, and then focus on the early week system because they focused on the wrong shortwave. It wouldn't be the first time this has happened. Either way, Monday will not be a very pretty day. Temperatures on Monday should warm up ahead of the front, but perhaps not as warm as we could get, due to clouds and periodic showers. I'm thinking low 60s in general for Monday.
Tuesday, for now, I'll go with the more progressive solutions and clear the rain out before dawn. Even that being said, it turns very chilly and temperatures will likely not rise very much from morning numbers. Most of the state will struggle to get much past 50 degrees during the day on Tuesday! Combine that with a gusty NW wind and it will feel quite chilly.
Long Range: The -EPO (Alaskan Ridge in laymens' terms) appears to be doing its dirty work. If you look only east of the Mississippi River, which many people mistakenly do, and repeatedly did during the winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15, this wouldn't look like all that cold of a pattern, and it isn't- yet. But just looking at the Eastern CONUS, this would look like a very warm pattern. However, it is probably more of a very normal pattern, temperature wise, due to the battle of ridges, between the SE Ridge and the Alaskan Ridge. In December and beyond, this would be a rather chilly to possibly frigid pattern, but we're not there yet, and patterns can and do change.
As far as November as a whole goes, I am thinking generally normal temperatures and precipitation across the area. We could get into something of an Alberta Clipper storm track as the month wears on, as a -EPO pattern and weak La Nina in late fall would favor that.
Now, let's take a graphical look at some of the systems expected to affect the area this week. Although there are technically multiple perturbations imbedded within the flow from tomorrow night into Friday, I don't want to waste too much server space on three or so waves that will combine to produce less than 1/10" of precipitation across the area. So I'll post a map of the daytime on Thursday, when any precipitation from those system(s) would be the most widespread:
Currently: A weak cold front has crossed the area. Behind the front, high pressure stretches from near Saint Joseph, Missouri, to near Evansville, Indiana. A weak low pressure wave has formed along the front over NE VA, but this low is so weak that it will be of little consequence to anyone.
Tonight: With fresh cold air advection and clear skies, temperatures will fall and this will probably be the coldest night of the season tomorrow. Low temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 30s- perhaps a few upper 20s in the NW Hills and upper 30s to near 40 along the immediate south coast and in the cities.
Tomorrow: A chilly one, given the cold start and clouds increasing ahead of approaching warm front. Light rain showers are possible in the afternoon, especially in the NW portion of the state- call it sprinkle in SW CT and nothing E of I 91.
Tomorrow Night/Thu: Much warmer. Could be a shower or even brief t-storm at any time in the NW Hills, where dynamics look best. Sprinkles across the rest of W CT limited to the morning hours on Thursday. E of I 91, there are literally no dynamics, and I'll keep it dry. Since I am going cloudier and wetter than most guidance, I'll go a little cooler than most guidance, as well, but either way, it will be much warmer, with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Long Term- the weekend and beyond: Two cold fronts dominate the forecast during this time period- the first one later in the day on Friday and the second during the day on Monday. The latter is more significant, as far as sensible weather goes, but even the first will see a significant change in temperatures. Friday's front is fairly moisture starved, so just a sprinkle or very light rain shower will be possible in the afternoon. Temperatures should still be fairly warm ahead of the cold front, as there will still be a decent amount of sun. Generally look for highs in the mid 60s on Friday, with a few upper 60s in the usual warm spots- the cities and I 91 corridor.
At this time, it appears the weekend should be fairly dry, as models have backed off on any coastal low development. However, given that today is only Tuesday, I would still keep that "old solution" in the back of my mind and not back off on it 100%. For now, though, Saturday looks like a nice fall day, with highs between 60-65 and plenty of sun. Sunday will be chilly, with an increase in clouds and highs generally in the mid 50s.
On Monday, a strong cold front will approach and this will likely trigger at least a round of moderate or maybe heavy showers. If this front slows, it is possible that a larger coastal storm forms along the front. It could be that the models initially were focusing on the weekend, then totally lose a system, and then focus on the early week system because they focused on the wrong shortwave. It wouldn't be the first time this has happened. Either way, Monday will not be a very pretty day. Temperatures on Monday should warm up ahead of the front, but perhaps not as warm as we could get, due to clouds and periodic showers. I'm thinking low 60s in general for Monday.
Tuesday, for now, I'll go with the more progressive solutions and clear the rain out before dawn. Even that being said, it turns very chilly and temperatures will likely not rise very much from morning numbers. Most of the state will struggle to get much past 50 degrees during the day on Tuesday! Combine that with a gusty NW wind and it will feel quite chilly.
Long Range: The -EPO (Alaskan Ridge in laymens' terms) appears to be doing its dirty work. If you look only east of the Mississippi River, which many people mistakenly do, and repeatedly did during the winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15, this wouldn't look like all that cold of a pattern, and it isn't- yet. But just looking at the Eastern CONUS, this would look like a very warm pattern. However, it is probably more of a very normal pattern, temperature wise, due to the battle of ridges, between the SE Ridge and the Alaskan Ridge. In December and beyond, this would be a rather chilly to possibly frigid pattern, but we're not there yet, and patterns can and do change.
As far as November as a whole goes, I am thinking generally normal temperatures and precipitation across the area. We could get into something of an Alberta Clipper storm track as the month wears on, as a -EPO pattern and weak La Nina in late fall would favor that.
Now, let's take a graphical look at some of the systems expected to affect the area this week. Although there are technically multiple perturbations imbedded within the flow from tomorrow night into Friday, I don't want to waste too much server space on three or so waves that will combine to produce less than 1/10" of precipitation across the area. So I'll post a map of the daytime on Thursday, when any precipitation from those system(s) would be the most widespread:
As you can see on this map, all precipitation associated with this system is quite light, but the highest concentration of any precipitation chances is up in the NW Hills.
Now, let's look at the frontal system for Monday. You can see a NNW-SSE moving band of rain traversing the state. This is a much better opportunity for more widespread rains, even if the frontal system is all we get.
Now, let's look at the frontal system for Monday. You can see a NNW-SSE moving band of rain traversing the state. This is a much better opportunity for more widespread rains, even if the frontal system is all we get.
Anyway, that's all for now! Have a great Halloween, filled with lots of treats, but no tricks!
_GP!
_GP!
