Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
A raw and wet day for most of Connecticut today, with highs not making it out of the mid 50s on the coastline and the mid 40s inland combined with steady rainfall for most of the day making for a really yucky day to be outside. Rain has tapered to showers over most of the state, and while some showers are possible in eastern sections from the coastal low blowing up, it looks like the low will be a little further east than thought, meaning that rains over most of the state are finished aside from scattered showers.
The storm lifts out to the northeast overnight, leaving some scattered showers in it’s wake which could affect us tomorrow, but that’s a relatively low percentage chance of precipitation(say 20% or so), meaning that for the most part, tomorrow will just be cool and cloudy, with highs being stuck in the upper 40s inland to right around 50 on the shoreline, which is 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
Thankfully, the storm appearing on models for Sunday and Monday, potentially proving the second half of the weekend to be a washout, has trended much weaker, until now model consensus is nothing more than a glorified coldfront with only a brief period of light frontal precipitation expected if that. As a result, the weekend looks to be mainly dry, but chilly, with highs in the mid 40s on Saturday and low to mid 50s on Sunday. Saturday will be mostly sunny, and Sunday partly sunny, with a 20% chance of some sprinkles or a shower. All models in excellent agreement for the period, so just took a blend of guidance for the forecast.
Monday looks to be sunny, with highs in the low to mid 50s.
Looking ahead on guidance, three main themes pop out that we should mention. The first is a potential system for midweek next week, which is shown on all guidance, but with significant differences in the evolution of it. As it is close to the end of the 7 day forecast period, we won’t go into too much detail, but let’s take a quick look anyway.
Below, you’ll see a gallery with the model representations for 7 AM Wednesday morning from the 18z GFS, 12z EURO, and 0z EURO.
A raw and wet day for most of Connecticut today, with highs not making it out of the mid 50s on the coastline and the mid 40s inland combined with steady rainfall for most of the day making for a really yucky day to be outside. Rain has tapered to showers over most of the state, and while some showers are possible in eastern sections from the coastal low blowing up, it looks like the low will be a little further east than thought, meaning that rains over most of the state are finished aside from scattered showers.
The storm lifts out to the northeast overnight, leaving some scattered showers in it’s wake which could affect us tomorrow, but that’s a relatively low percentage chance of precipitation(say 20% or so), meaning that for the most part, tomorrow will just be cool and cloudy, with highs being stuck in the upper 40s inland to right around 50 on the shoreline, which is 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
Thankfully, the storm appearing on models for Sunday and Monday, potentially proving the second half of the weekend to be a washout, has trended much weaker, until now model consensus is nothing more than a glorified coldfront with only a brief period of light frontal precipitation expected if that. As a result, the weekend looks to be mainly dry, but chilly, with highs in the mid 40s on Saturday and low to mid 50s on Sunday. Saturday will be mostly sunny, and Sunday partly sunny, with a 20% chance of some sprinkles or a shower. All models in excellent agreement for the period, so just took a blend of guidance for the forecast.
Monday looks to be sunny, with highs in the low to mid 50s.
Looking ahead on guidance, three main themes pop out that we should mention. The first is a potential system for midweek next week, which is shown on all guidance, but with significant differences in the evolution of it. As it is close to the end of the 7 day forecast period, we won’t go into too much detail, but let’s take a quick look anyway.
Below, you’ll see a gallery with the model representations for 7 AM Wednesday morning from the 18z GFS, 12z EURO, and 0z EURO.
Three different model runs, three different solutions. Let’s look at them one by one. First, we have the 18z GFS. On the 18z GFS, you can see that a clipper system passes right over us from the west on it’s path east, bringing light precipitation to us and heavier precipitation to the north. The 32 degree line is in southern New Hampshire, meaning that this would be snow for Northern New England, but for us, all we see is some cold light rain. The second image, the 12z EURO, has the low as well, but notice the placement of the center of the low pressure. Here, instead of being placed over Connecticut, it’s way up in the great lakes! What happened here was that the EURO, instead of continuing to bring the system east, “cut” it into the great lakes, bringing heavier precipitation to them and warmer air to us. Cutters are our primary source of winter rainstorms, and are actually quite important in bringing snow to the area, because they often align the Polar Vortex(Yes, that Polar Vortex), in a way that creates blocking for stronger coastal lows to bring in their own cold air and create snowstorms for us. Here though, all this one does is bring some light rain to us as the bulk of the precip is further north.
Finally, take a look at the 0z EURO. What happened here? The clipper never cuts north, and as a result, continues along the front and reaches our area with cold air still intact(As you might notice on the map, the 32 degree line is south of the state, meaning that verbatim, this would be a snowstorm). It’s in the process of transferring to a weak coastal low here, and it eventually pulls away to the east, but not before dropping several inches of snow on the state.
Right now, I think the 0z EURO is the least likely of these solutions, considering that it has no ensemble support and the 12z EURO shifted away from it, but it’s worth keeping an eye on. For now, will go with a blend between 12z EURO and 12z GFS, which brings a chance of showers to the state Tuesday evening to Wednesday evening, no snow expected.
The second thing to mention is our first arctic blast is beginning to look more likely for late next week. Here’s a map of the 5 day average temperature departures for November 13th to 18th, showing the textbook funnel of cold from Western Canada down into the central US and the resulting spread east over time.
Finally, take a look at the 0z EURO. What happened here? The clipper never cuts north, and as a result, continues along the front and reaches our area with cold air still intact(As you might notice on the map, the 32 degree line is south of the state, meaning that verbatim, this would be a snowstorm). It’s in the process of transferring to a weak coastal low here, and it eventually pulls away to the east, but not before dropping several inches of snow on the state.
Right now, I think the 0z EURO is the least likely of these solutions, considering that it has no ensemble support and the 12z EURO shifted away from it, but it’s worth keeping an eye on. For now, will go with a blend between 12z EURO and 12z GFS, which brings a chance of showers to the state Tuesday evening to Wednesday evening, no snow expected.
The second thing to mention is our first arctic blast is beginning to look more likely for late next week. Here’s a map of the 5 day average temperature departures for November 13th to 18th, showing the textbook funnel of cold from Western Canada down into the central US and the resulting spread east over time.
Advancing this image another few days centers even colder anomalies over our area, but I wanted to show the funnel of cold and so we chose this one. Both the EURO and GFS average below normal pretty much throughout their entire runs, and given excellent ensemble support, it looks like we’re entering a period of below normal averages for a while.
Finally, we come to the third and final thing to mention, that is, a potential storm for late next week. Not going to go into any details now because of the timeline, but long range guidance suggests a storm coming up the coastline in the day 8 to 10 period, and there has been remarkable agreement on guidance for a storm in this timeframe. Considering the cold air modeled to be around, some snow is certainly a possibility(could just as easily be rain and track further west, at this stage, silly to assume anything beyond signal for an event) but given the lead time and uncertainty in track, it’s useless to speculate anything as to amounts/intensity/track/etc. One thing to mention though is the performance of the first event will likely influence the second, that is, if the first storm cuts, it sets up the PV in a position for blocking for the second one, so we’ll want to watch the first to see what the second might do. We’ll keep it in the back of our minds, and as we move into the day 5-7 period, will start to look more closely at it, but thought it was worth mentioning the signal for a system in that time period.
All in all, relatively calm for the weekend and early next week before things get more interesting in the long range. We’ll keep an eye on the data, and update over the weekend with more, but for now, have a wonderful day tomorrow and a great weekend!
-SA
Finally, we come to the third and final thing to mention, that is, a potential storm for late next week. Not going to go into any details now because of the timeline, but long range guidance suggests a storm coming up the coastline in the day 8 to 10 period, and there has been remarkable agreement on guidance for a storm in this timeframe. Considering the cold air modeled to be around, some snow is certainly a possibility(could just as easily be rain and track further west, at this stage, silly to assume anything beyond signal for an event) but given the lead time and uncertainty in track, it’s useless to speculate anything as to amounts/intensity/track/etc. One thing to mention though is the performance of the first event will likely influence the second, that is, if the first storm cuts, it sets up the PV in a position for blocking for the second one, so we’ll want to watch the first to see what the second might do. We’ll keep it in the back of our minds, and as we move into the day 5-7 period, will start to look more closely at it, but thought it was worth mentioning the signal for a system in that time period.
All in all, relatively calm for the weekend and early next week before things get more interesting in the long range. We’ll keep an eye on the data, and update over the weekend with more, but for now, have a wonderful day tomorrow and a great weekend!
-SA
