In general, the pattern this summer has been one of periods of normal to below normal temperatures interspersed with periods of normal to above normal temperatures, but the common theme has been overachieving rain events every few days, and there still is no reason for that to change.
Currently: One low pressure system was currently near the Chessy Bay, with another low near Niagara Falls. Hurricane Gert was located well off the coast of the Carolinas. A warm front was located over the Susq Valley, with a cold front across the Great Lakes region.
Tonight: Temperatures will depend on how much we can clear. Given the atmosphere is moist and clouds have won the battle the last few days, I'll err on the cloudier side of things, which would mean warmer temperatures. Thinking right now is for lows mainly in the mid to upper 60s, but a few lower 60s are possible in the NW Hills.
Tomorrow: The combination of strong August sun being more than enough to scour out any morning low clouds and fog, Hurricane Gert offshore, and the area being in the warm sector, should be enough to allow temperatures to rise into the 85 to 90 degree range. Humidity levels will be a bit lower, however.
Tomorrow Night/Thu: With increasing clouds and the winds shifting to a more onshore direction should mean much cooler temperatures on Thursday, with most highs just in the upper 70s, although it could touch 80 in a few spots in the I 91 corridor. Any shower and thunderstorm activity should stay to the SW of the region, especially given the strong onshore flow.
Long Term (the weekend and beyond): On Friday, a cold front will approach the area. Showers and thunderstorms will become likely, especially in the 2nd half of the day. I'm going with a cloudier, rainier forecast than consensus, and as a result, I'll keep high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
The rest of the long term period actually looks quiet. (Could we actually have our first 5-7 day long dry period in quite a while)? There could be a lingering shower or thunderstorm Saturday morning, especially in Eastern sections. Temperatures will actually be warmer behind the cold front, but with much lower humidity (it's really more of a dew point front). Temperatures through the period will generally be in the mid to upper 80s for highs, with a few locations getting to 90 possible on Sunday and Monday. There's a low probability of a diurnal type thunderstorm on Sunday, especially in the NW Hills.
Hurricane Gert is located well off the Carolina coast. Although this storm poses no threat to land, it is generating large, dangerous rip currents. Use extreme caution if going to Atlantic beaches the next couple of days.
Long Range: The long range looks to feature above normal temperatures, as we get through the 2nd half of August. There's a higher than normal risk of a threat from a tropical system during this time frame, as well. This could be a hurricane, a rain storm from the remnants of a tropical system, or a tropical system that comes close and misses. This does not mean a hurricane is coming. It just means that the pattern is more favorable, as a Bermuda High sets up offshore and the MDR (Main Development Region) in the Atlantic becomes more active.
Now, let's take a graphical look at some weather systems slated to affect the area. Once again, we only have one significant system- that is on Friday- affecting the area, so I'll post Thursday morning's low temperatures first, as some areas may get rather chilly for the time of year.
Currently: One low pressure system was currently near the Chessy Bay, with another low near Niagara Falls. Hurricane Gert was located well off the coast of the Carolinas. A warm front was located over the Susq Valley, with a cold front across the Great Lakes region.
Tonight: Temperatures will depend on how much we can clear. Given the atmosphere is moist and clouds have won the battle the last few days, I'll err on the cloudier side of things, which would mean warmer temperatures. Thinking right now is for lows mainly in the mid to upper 60s, but a few lower 60s are possible in the NW Hills.
Tomorrow: The combination of strong August sun being more than enough to scour out any morning low clouds and fog, Hurricane Gert offshore, and the area being in the warm sector, should be enough to allow temperatures to rise into the 85 to 90 degree range. Humidity levels will be a bit lower, however.
Tomorrow Night/Thu: With increasing clouds and the winds shifting to a more onshore direction should mean much cooler temperatures on Thursday, with most highs just in the upper 70s, although it could touch 80 in a few spots in the I 91 corridor. Any shower and thunderstorm activity should stay to the SW of the region, especially given the strong onshore flow.
Long Term (the weekend and beyond): On Friday, a cold front will approach the area. Showers and thunderstorms will become likely, especially in the 2nd half of the day. I'm going with a cloudier, rainier forecast than consensus, and as a result, I'll keep high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
The rest of the long term period actually looks quiet. (Could we actually have our first 5-7 day long dry period in quite a while)? There could be a lingering shower or thunderstorm Saturday morning, especially in Eastern sections. Temperatures will actually be warmer behind the cold front, but with much lower humidity (it's really more of a dew point front). Temperatures through the period will generally be in the mid to upper 80s for highs, with a few locations getting to 90 possible on Sunday and Monday. There's a low probability of a diurnal type thunderstorm on Sunday, especially in the NW Hills.
Hurricane Gert is located well off the Carolina coast. Although this storm poses no threat to land, it is generating large, dangerous rip currents. Use extreme caution if going to Atlantic beaches the next couple of days.
Long Range: The long range looks to feature above normal temperatures, as we get through the 2nd half of August. There's a higher than normal risk of a threat from a tropical system during this time frame, as well. This could be a hurricane, a rain storm from the remnants of a tropical system, or a tropical system that comes close and misses. This does not mean a hurricane is coming. It just means that the pattern is more favorable, as a Bermuda High sets up offshore and the MDR (Main Development Region) in the Atlantic becomes more active.
Now, let's take a graphical look at some weather systems slated to affect the area. Once again, we only have one significant system- that is on Friday- affecting the area, so I'll post Thursday morning's low temperatures first, as some areas may get rather chilly for the time of year.
This map is just a timestamp, instantaneous shot. If we take into consideration that most temperature products show low temperatures 2 to 5 degrees colder than this map, much of the state will be in the 50s, away from the cities and coast Thursday morning! Now let's look at the cold front and heavy rain potential for Friday.
As you can see from this map, most of the state is already in steady rains, and the heavier stuff down over NJ, LI, and the adjacent Atlantic is moving NNE toward the state. There is heavy rain potential Friday and Friday night!
Anyway, that's all for now! Have a great rest of your week!
-GP!
Anyway, that's all for now! Have a great rest of your week!
-GP!
