Today was a picture perfect late fall day across the state of Connecticut, with highs topping out in the low to mid 60s along with mostly sunny skies and calm winds making for fabulous weather to be outside enjoying some of the last days of summerlike weather before we move into the winter season.
Three events highlight tonight’s forecast: A rainstorm encompassing parts of Thursday and Friday, another potential system for early next week, and a general turn towards much colder temperatures in the long range relative to normal. Let’s work through the forecast day by day, going more into depth into these events as they approach.
Tomorrow looks pleasant and uneventful, with high temperatures in the low to mid 60s expected along with building clouds ahead of Thursday’s rain. No precipitation is expected.
Now, we turn to the first of the three events highlighting the forecast: a rainstorm for parts of Thursday and Friday. All models are in agreement on the general track of the storm being it coming down from the lakes/upper Midwest on Thursday morning before transferring to a secondary low somewhere off the Northeastern coast on Thursday evening. Here’s an image from the NAM model showing the transfer in progress, notice the primary low over Western NY is still stronger than the secondary low forming just at the eastern tip of Long Island.
On the other hand, we have the GGEM and the EURO models, both of which transfer the low further east than the GFS and NAM combo do, leading to less of a dryslot across the state and higher rainfall totals as a result, on the order of half an inch to an inch of rain being expected in total. Below is the total precip map from the GGEM, the EURO looks generally similar.
So, as far as a timeline goes, rain looks to move in over the course of the morning to early afternoon on Thursday, and be generally light and showery and nature before increasing in intensity and coverage during the evening and overnight hours. Rain lessens throughout the day on Friday and departs during the mid day hours, bringing dramatically colder temperatures in it’s wake. It’s possible that we could see precipitation end as flurries/snowshowers in NW areas, but this is a low probability and any accumulations would be non-existent to minimal. Temps look to be below normal, in the low to mid 50s Thursday and mid 40s to lower 50s Friday, coldest in the NW hills.
Looking at next weekend, Saturday looks to be the nicer day of the two, with sunny skies and yet chilly temps, with highs 5 to 10 degrees below normal in the upper 40s. The next system in the pipeline approaches for Sunday, and has been all over the map in terms of model representations the last few days. Todays models show it as a weak northern stream system passing over our area that fails to capture with a southern stream system around the same time, but previous days had the two systems eventually phasing into a stronger coastal storm. Will go with a broadbrushed chance of rain from Sunday into Monday at this time, and will refine the forecast later in the week as models begin to hone in on a solution. Below is a representation of the event on todays 18z GFS, showing the strong storm to the south escaping out to sea and the weak northern stream wave that would be about to impact us.
That just about does it for this update, so until next time, have a wonderful evening and thanks for reading Southern Connecticut Weather!