Disc: Now, there are more than just signs that the weather pattern is getting more active, and wintry, and this is not only in the super long range anymore.
Currently: The surprise soaking rainfall (at least for western sections) is now moving away. Low pressure was centered literally right over Sikorsky Field this evening and continues to move Northeast. Weak high pressure currently over the Plains states will build east in its wake.
Tonight: Skies gradually clear. Since the high pressure system behind the storm is not strong and not of polar or arctic origin, we won't have the big blast of cold air advection behind the system as we often do. Because of this, it isn't going to get very windy tonight. As far as temperatures, they won't be overly cold either, with most lows ranging from 40 to 45.
Most of this week: Feel we can broadbrush this week right up to Thursday, since there really isn't much going on between now and then; basically sunny, warmer than normal days, and clear nights with good radiational cooling. Highs should be mostly around 60, except mid 50s in the NW hills, and lows should be within a few degrees of 40.
Friday and Saturday: Sunshine and being ahead of a cold front, entrenched in southwesterly flow, should allow temperatures to soar to 60 to 65 degrees. Clouds will increase Saturday ahead of a strong cold front and this should allow temperatures to be a couple degrees cooler. Will keep the entire day dry on Saturday, as most models show precipitation staying to the south and west of the area.
Sunday and Monday: A strong cold front will begin to spread precipitation into the region from west to east after midnight Saturday night. Initially, this will just be a slug of rain with a cold front. However, the forecast gets much more complicated than that. A low pressure system will develop along the front. The models vary as to where the actual low pressure system will develop. Basically, the further south the low develops, the more precipitation will fall in Connecticut. The 12Z GFS model developed the low up near Boston, which would not bring much precipitation to the state. Most other models are much further south and the 18Z GFS has trended a bit in that direction. Another complicating factor is that, since the cold front will have already passed through the area, much colder air will have moved into the state. The air mass will likely be cold enough to support snow everywhere, and accumulating snow would be possible in the NW Hills. Stay tuned, since we likely won't know much about this until Friday or thereabouts! Keep in mind, the axis of heaviest rainfall today changed over 100 miles in 12 hours! Even if the low does not pan out, potential snow showers and squalls with gusty winds are possible for Monday, along with a chill to the air! High temperatures Sunday and Monday will be around 50 Sunday (although that could very well be a midnight high) and only around 40 Monday!
Tuesday should feature clearing skies and temperatures a few degrees warmer, in the mid 40s, due to more sun.
Thanksgiving and T-day weekend: It's WAY too early to really give a concrete outlook on the weather for Thnaksgiving and the following weekend, but since this is the long range portion of the discussion and a lot of people will be asking, I figured I'd give it a shot! Many models are showing one or two storm threats over the weekend, one right on Thanksgiving day and one a few days later. The 18Z GFS is a mess and tries to consolidate both storms into one gigantic mess. The Thanksgiving Day storm would likely be a bit warmer than the following storm. The air mass could very well be cold enough to support accumulating snow over most of the area, especially in the NW Hills, so you may want to at least entertain the possibility of accumulating snow for Thanksgiving Day and the following weekend!
The overall pattern in the long range looks to develop into a very wintry pattern, with a large blocking high over Greenland and a colder, stormier pattern developing into the Continental United States... stay tuned!
Now, let's look at the upcoming weather pattern in graphical images. First, this is a model depiction of the weekend's cold front/potential winter threat. I would take this and adjust it about 100 miles south, based on other models' depictions.
Currently: The surprise soaking rainfall (at least for western sections) is now moving away. Low pressure was centered literally right over Sikorsky Field this evening and continues to move Northeast. Weak high pressure currently over the Plains states will build east in its wake.
Tonight: Skies gradually clear. Since the high pressure system behind the storm is not strong and not of polar or arctic origin, we won't have the big blast of cold air advection behind the system as we often do. Because of this, it isn't going to get very windy tonight. As far as temperatures, they won't be overly cold either, with most lows ranging from 40 to 45.
Most of this week: Feel we can broadbrush this week right up to Thursday, since there really isn't much going on between now and then; basically sunny, warmer than normal days, and clear nights with good radiational cooling. Highs should be mostly around 60, except mid 50s in the NW hills, and lows should be within a few degrees of 40.
Friday and Saturday: Sunshine and being ahead of a cold front, entrenched in southwesterly flow, should allow temperatures to soar to 60 to 65 degrees. Clouds will increase Saturday ahead of a strong cold front and this should allow temperatures to be a couple degrees cooler. Will keep the entire day dry on Saturday, as most models show precipitation staying to the south and west of the area.
Sunday and Monday: A strong cold front will begin to spread precipitation into the region from west to east after midnight Saturday night. Initially, this will just be a slug of rain with a cold front. However, the forecast gets much more complicated than that. A low pressure system will develop along the front. The models vary as to where the actual low pressure system will develop. Basically, the further south the low develops, the more precipitation will fall in Connecticut. The 12Z GFS model developed the low up near Boston, which would not bring much precipitation to the state. Most other models are much further south and the 18Z GFS has trended a bit in that direction. Another complicating factor is that, since the cold front will have already passed through the area, much colder air will have moved into the state. The air mass will likely be cold enough to support snow everywhere, and accumulating snow would be possible in the NW Hills. Stay tuned, since we likely won't know much about this until Friday or thereabouts! Keep in mind, the axis of heaviest rainfall today changed over 100 miles in 12 hours! Even if the low does not pan out, potential snow showers and squalls with gusty winds are possible for Monday, along with a chill to the air! High temperatures Sunday and Monday will be around 50 Sunday (although that could very well be a midnight high) and only around 40 Monday!
Tuesday should feature clearing skies and temperatures a few degrees warmer, in the mid 40s, due to more sun.
Thanksgiving and T-day weekend: It's WAY too early to really give a concrete outlook on the weather for Thnaksgiving and the following weekend, but since this is the long range portion of the discussion and a lot of people will be asking, I figured I'd give it a shot! Many models are showing one or two storm threats over the weekend, one right on Thanksgiving day and one a few days later. The 18Z GFS is a mess and tries to consolidate both storms into one gigantic mess. The Thanksgiving Day storm would likely be a bit warmer than the following storm. The air mass could very well be cold enough to support accumulating snow over most of the area, especially in the NW Hills, so you may want to at least entertain the possibility of accumulating snow for Thanksgiving Day and the following weekend!
The overall pattern in the long range looks to develop into a very wintry pattern, with a large blocking high over Greenland and a colder, stormier pattern developing into the Continental United States... stay tuned!
Now, let's look at the upcoming weather pattern in graphical images. First, this is a model depiction of the weekend's cold front/potential winter threat. I would take this and adjust it about 100 miles south, based on other models' depictions.
Ignore the phantom "L" over Canada. (I really don't know why this algorithm likes to do this. It has to be something associated with the software's understanding of modeled pressure fields, but it is not correct.) We can see the low center is near Worcester, Massachusetts, just by reading the isobars. Most models at this time frame have the low near Brooklyn. This would push the heavier precipitation further south, and deeper into the state. Next, let's take a look at the weather pattern at 500 MB (about 18,000 feet). This is often the area that really drives our weather.
You can see blocking on the model showing up, extending from the Davis Straits to near Greenland. This forces the storm track to our south and locks cold air into our region. We could be ready to embark on an early winter! Have a great rest of your week and enjoy our ever-changing weather!
-GP!
-GP!
