Update 11/17/2014: Lowered chance of precipitation for Tuesday to 30% as a result of weaker FROPA and overall less moisture to work with. May eliminate it entirely in afternoon update, but will leave it for now. -SA
Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Currently we have overcast skies and some light rain and even sleet and snow up in Litchfield county. Temperatures range from the upper 30s to the mid 40s across the state. Outside of the small area of precipitation some of the state is contending with right now, we have a larger area of precipitation off to our south and west. This area of precipitation will be moving into a still cold airmass, thus prompting a winter weather advisory in Litchfield county and in northern Fairfield county for some freezing rain, sleet, and snow overnight. I expect mid level temps to rise above freezing by the middle of the morning tomorrow, thus, any frozen precipitation will change to plain rain. Toward the shoreline there could be a quick period of sleet or snow but should quickly change to plain rain with both mid level and surface temperatures above freezing for the duration of the precipitation.
The main area of precipitation moves in during the pre-dawn hours of Monday, bringing an initial burst of frozen precipitation to areas, especially away from the shoreline, but temperatures will rise rapidly in most of the state outside of Litchfield County, which will change over to plain rain later on Monday morning as cold air will stay entrenched longer there. Throughout the day tomorrow there could be heavy rain, and winds will dramatically increase.
Rain will persist through Monday afternoon and evening, and then as the low begins to pull out of the area, we could see areas in northwestern Connecticut change back to frozen precipitation for a bit at the tail end of the event. Whether this changeover occurs will be determined by the timing of the low exiting vs. the cold air arriving. Looking toward Tuesday morning, a strong Arctic front moves in from the west and will set off some scattered rain and snow squalls across the state, winds will increase and temperatures will drop dramatically across the state. By Tuesday afternoon even the shoreline will get in on some scattered snow squalls. Depending on how much moisture accompanies the front, some of these squalls could bring heavier snow with them for a brief period, which would result in lower visibilities and tricky conditions. We’ll be watching the radar on Tuesday and will update as needed for any squalls that do pop up.. Behind the front, strong winds persist, and temperatures will continue to plummet through the 20s. Tuesday night looks to be clear, but quite cold with temps ranging from the upper teens to the 20s across the state. Here's an image of forecast lows Tuesday night from the GFS model.
Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Currently we have overcast skies and some light rain and even sleet and snow up in Litchfield county. Temperatures range from the upper 30s to the mid 40s across the state. Outside of the small area of precipitation some of the state is contending with right now, we have a larger area of precipitation off to our south and west. This area of precipitation will be moving into a still cold airmass, thus prompting a winter weather advisory in Litchfield county and in northern Fairfield county for some freezing rain, sleet, and snow overnight. I expect mid level temps to rise above freezing by the middle of the morning tomorrow, thus, any frozen precipitation will change to plain rain. Toward the shoreline there could be a quick period of sleet or snow but should quickly change to plain rain with both mid level and surface temperatures above freezing for the duration of the precipitation.
The main area of precipitation moves in during the pre-dawn hours of Monday, bringing an initial burst of frozen precipitation to areas, especially away from the shoreline, but temperatures will rise rapidly in most of the state outside of Litchfield County, which will change over to plain rain later on Monday morning as cold air will stay entrenched longer there. Throughout the day tomorrow there could be heavy rain, and winds will dramatically increase.
Rain will persist through Monday afternoon and evening, and then as the low begins to pull out of the area, we could see areas in northwestern Connecticut change back to frozen precipitation for a bit at the tail end of the event. Whether this changeover occurs will be determined by the timing of the low exiting vs. the cold air arriving. Looking toward Tuesday morning, a strong Arctic front moves in from the west and will set off some scattered rain and snow squalls across the state, winds will increase and temperatures will drop dramatically across the state. By Tuesday afternoon even the shoreline will get in on some scattered snow squalls. Depending on how much moisture accompanies the front, some of these squalls could bring heavier snow with them for a brief period, which would result in lower visibilities and tricky conditions. We’ll be watching the radar on Tuesday and will update as needed for any squalls that do pop up.. Behind the front, strong winds persist, and temperatures will continue to plummet through the 20s. Tuesday night looks to be clear, but quite cold with temps ranging from the upper teens to the 20s across the state. Here's an image of forecast lows Tuesday night from the GFS model.
Looking at the rest of next week, temperatures look to be quite frigid with cold air staying entrenched through next weekend. High temperatures don't look to get out of the 30s from Wednesday through Sunday. As far as snow, we are watching a little disturbance in the Thursday-Friday time period, which has been on again off again on various modeling, but it doesn’t look to have a huge impact even if it were to hit us. Thus, have painted in a low probability of precipitation for the end of the week into the daily forecast. Other than that, it looks relatively dry from late Tuesday through next Sunday. Here's an image of the GGEM model for that period, which is currently the most aggressive of the guidance(although it still only shows a light snowfall, so the ceiling for this event is fairly low).
Looking at the rest of next week, temperatures look to be quite frigid with cold air staying entrenched through next weekend. High temperatures don't look to get out of the 30s from Wednesday through Sunday. As far as snow, we are watching a little disturbance in the Thursday-Friday time period, which has been on again off again on various modeling, but it doesn’t look to have a huge impact even if it were to hit us. Thus, have painted in a low probability of precipitation for the end of the week into the daily forecast. Other than that, it looks relatively dry from late Tuesday through next Sunday.
In the long range, it looks as if the airmass will begin to moderate for a short time starting later next Sunday. Also looking for a bigger storm in the Monday and Tuesday (11/24-11/25) time period, which would be mostly rain, but on the backside of that event, we’re back into the cold just in time for Thanksgiving, and so we’ll be keeping an eye on it for any possible travel impacts that might arise across the state or New England as a whole.
In terms of models used, consensus is high throughout the period except for the Thursday/Friday disturbance, so took a blend of all guidance for the forecast today-Wednesday and Saturday-Sunday and added light chances of precipitation for Thursday and Friday.
Today is Sunday, so it’s time for the 7 day forecast:
Tonight: Cloudy with frozen precip north, rain south early, then snow sleet and freezing rain north after midnight, brief period of sleet to rain at the shore after 1 am. Temps around freezing inland, mid 30s to around 40 at the shore and rising after midnight. Chance of precipitation 40%
Monday: Cloudy with frozen precipitation across the northern part of the state becoming all rain by late morning, rain continuing and becoming heavy across southern Connecticut. Temps mid 30s to around 40 inland, mid 40s at the shore and rising. Becoming windy. Chance of precipitation 80%
Monday night: Cloudy with rain, heavy at times and very windy, temps 40-45 inland, 50s at the shore. Temps dropping late. Chance of precipitation 100%
Tuesday: Rain early, then rain and snow squalls as strong Arctic cold front approaches, temps in the 40s and and 50s early dropping through the 30s throughout the day. Very windy. Chance of precip 30%
Tuesday night: Lingering snow squalls early, becoming mostly clear. Temps mid to upper teens inland, windy. Chance of precip 20%
Wednesday: Sunny, breezy, cold. Temps low 30s inland, mid 30s at the shore. Chance of precip 0%
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy, cold. Temps low to mid 20s inland, mid to upper 20s at the shore. Chance of precip 0%
Thursday: Partly cloudy early, then increasing clouds in the afternoon, temps mid 30s across the state, Chance of precip 10%
Thursday night: Mostly cloudy, chance of snow showers late, temps mid 20s, Chance of precip 20%
Friday: Cloudy with a chance of snow, temps mid to upper 30s, Chance of precip 30%
Friday night: Clouds early then clearing, temps low to mid 20s, Chance of precip 20%
Saturday: Mostly sunny, temps mid 30s, Chance of precip 0%
Saturday night: Partly cloudy, temps mid 20s, Chance of precip 0%
Sunday: Mostly sunny early then increasing clouds in the afternoon, temps upper 30s and rising. Chance of precip 10%
Sunday night: Cloudy, snow and frozen precip changing to all rain, temps 40s and rising. Chance of precip 20%
Have a good rest of the night everyone! Stay tuned for more updates! -Tim
In the long range, it looks as if the airmass will begin to moderate for a short time starting later next Sunday. Also looking for a bigger storm in the Monday and Tuesday (11/24-11/25) time period, which would be mostly rain, but on the backside of that event, we’re back into the cold just in time for Thanksgiving, and so we’ll be keeping an eye on it for any possible travel impacts that might arise across the state or New England as a whole.
In terms of models used, consensus is high throughout the period except for the Thursday/Friday disturbance, so took a blend of all guidance for the forecast today-Wednesday and Saturday-Sunday and added light chances of precipitation for Thursday and Friday.
Today is Sunday, so it’s time for the 7 day forecast:
Tonight: Cloudy with frozen precip north, rain south early, then snow sleet and freezing rain north after midnight, brief period of sleet to rain at the shore after 1 am. Temps around freezing inland, mid 30s to around 40 at the shore and rising after midnight. Chance of precipitation 40%
Monday: Cloudy with frozen precipitation across the northern part of the state becoming all rain by late morning, rain continuing and becoming heavy across southern Connecticut. Temps mid 30s to around 40 inland, mid 40s at the shore and rising. Becoming windy. Chance of precipitation 80%
Monday night: Cloudy with rain, heavy at times and very windy, temps 40-45 inland, 50s at the shore. Temps dropping late. Chance of precipitation 100%
Tuesday: Rain early, then rain and snow squalls as strong Arctic cold front approaches, temps in the 40s and and 50s early dropping through the 30s throughout the day. Very windy. Chance of precip 30%
Tuesday night: Lingering snow squalls early, becoming mostly clear. Temps mid to upper teens inland, windy. Chance of precip 20%
Wednesday: Sunny, breezy, cold. Temps low 30s inland, mid 30s at the shore. Chance of precip 0%
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy, cold. Temps low to mid 20s inland, mid to upper 20s at the shore. Chance of precip 0%
Thursday: Partly cloudy early, then increasing clouds in the afternoon, temps mid 30s across the state, Chance of precip 10%
Thursday night: Mostly cloudy, chance of snow showers late, temps mid 20s, Chance of precip 20%
Friday: Cloudy with a chance of snow, temps mid to upper 30s, Chance of precip 30%
Friday night: Clouds early then clearing, temps low to mid 20s, Chance of precip 20%
Saturday: Mostly sunny, temps mid 30s, Chance of precip 0%
Saturday night: Partly cloudy, temps mid 20s, Chance of precip 0%
Sunday: Mostly sunny early then increasing clouds in the afternoon, temps upper 30s and rising. Chance of precip 10%
Sunday night: Cloudy, snow and frozen precip changing to all rain, temps 40s and rising. Chance of precip 20%
Have a good rest of the night everyone! Stay tuned for more updates! -Tim
