Disc: There are no *MAJOR* storm threats on the horizon right now, but there are a few small storm threats over the upcoming holiday period, all of which could produce a little wintry weather.
Currently: The pesky upper level low that brought persistent snow showers to the state and the huge lake effect snow event to upstate NY is finally lifting out into New Brunswick province, Canada. High pressure extending from James Bay, Canada, to NC, will build in to our region, bringing a brief period of fair weather.
Tonight: Temperatures will fall quickly as skies clear. The one fly in the ointment could be a few leftover clouds, but most of these should pull out after midnight and then temperatures may begin to fall rapidly. In areas that have snowcover, temperatures will really fall rapidly. Tonight will definitely be the coldest night of the season. Low temperatures should range from the low 20s to around 30.
Tomorrow: A fair weather day and a break between the next incoming weak system and the snow showers and gusty winds we've been experiencing. Expect high temperatures to be within a few degrees of 45 throughout the state.
Tomorrow Night and Thursday: A very weak storm system over Lake Michigan will bring scattered light precipitation into the area late tomorrow night. The fact that this low is weak will actually allow temperatures to be colder than if the low were strong, because it won't have such a push of warm air that we typically see when there is a strong storm over the Great Lakes. It also won't have much precipitation. For this reason, I don't really see a winter weather threat with this system. In addition, most of the precipitation will fall over Southwestern sections, where temperatures will probably be warm enough to support rain. The good news is that no matter what, if any precipitation does fall where temperatures are cold enough, it will probably be sleet or snow, rather than freezing rain. During the day on Thursday, some of this precipitation spreads further Northward into the rest of the state, as rain or a rain/sleet mix.
Another low pressure system will develop Thursday night well off the coast of Southern New Jersey. This low should also be very weak. Because of the position of this low, most of the precipitation will fall across Southern Connecticut, with the best chance near I 95 and East of I 91. Precipitation should be rain or a rain sleet mix, and mostly quite light.
Temperatures Thursday will reach 40-45 degrees for highs, so it will be a chilly and raw Thanksgiving, precipitation or not!
Longer Term- Thanksgiving Weekend: This weekend will be an unsettled mess, with various waves of mostly weak low pressure and temperatures mostly supporting rain, but occasionally cold enough cold enough for snow or sleet.
For Friday... For now, will run with a dry forecast for Friday, since one weak system will be ending, and the next one shouldn't arrive until late at night. So under a mostly cloudy sky, Friday's high temperatures should be fairly uniform across the state, with highs in the upper 40s.
Another weak system will approach for late Friday night into early Saturday morning, as a weak low pressure system will be over Lake Ontario, with a weak secondary low developing off Cape Hatteras. This time temperature profiles appear warm enough for just light rain, but just barely. Aside from a rogue shower, most of the day Saturday should be dry, with again, most of the precipitation falling early in the morning and late at night. If any showers come down heavy enough during the day on Saturday, the rain could mix with sleet or rime graupel, since the freezing level is relatively low. High temperatures on Saturday should be near or just above 50.
Yet another weak system will affect the state on Sunday. This one appears to be more of a daytime event. This is from the same storm that hit Saturday now becoming quite a bit stronger as it heads off the coast of Cape Cod and throwing a trough back. Models have been trending stronger with this feature. In addition, temperatures have trended colder and will continue to do so if the storm trends stronger, since the upper levels are cold enough. This one could be cold enough to support snow everywhere, and accumulations for the interior, IF it pans out. There is a lot of time to work this out and a small change in axis and strength of this trough could have big effects on our weather, so stay tuned! As for temperatures on Sunday, current progs have highs near or just below 50, but if this storm strengthens, you might want to take at least 10 degrees off that!
As we head into next week, Monday and Tuesday should feature fair weather, with high temperatures right around 50 both days, as high pressure builds in. The next system will approach Wednesday. For now, at least, this system looks to be stronger than the past systems and track into Lake Superior. This would bring warmer air into the region, so only rain would fall.
Looking into the longer range, a very active pattern looks to set up, with a sharp thermal gradient from north to south across the country, and a gradual trend toward cooler temperatures. As we head into a climatologically colder period of the year, in a pattern like this, events would tend to trend more snowy with time. Since the pattern is clearly getting more active, this may be something to watch!
Now, let's take a look at our weather coming up graphically. I'll show a map for Thanksgiving Day, which shows a little bit of both systems that will affect the area both days, and then a map of Sunday's potential, since right now, that seems like the most interesting in the slew of upcoming weak systems.
Currently: The pesky upper level low that brought persistent snow showers to the state and the huge lake effect snow event to upstate NY is finally lifting out into New Brunswick province, Canada. High pressure extending from James Bay, Canada, to NC, will build in to our region, bringing a brief period of fair weather.
Tonight: Temperatures will fall quickly as skies clear. The one fly in the ointment could be a few leftover clouds, but most of these should pull out after midnight and then temperatures may begin to fall rapidly. In areas that have snowcover, temperatures will really fall rapidly. Tonight will definitely be the coldest night of the season. Low temperatures should range from the low 20s to around 30.
Tomorrow: A fair weather day and a break between the next incoming weak system and the snow showers and gusty winds we've been experiencing. Expect high temperatures to be within a few degrees of 45 throughout the state.
Tomorrow Night and Thursday: A very weak storm system over Lake Michigan will bring scattered light precipitation into the area late tomorrow night. The fact that this low is weak will actually allow temperatures to be colder than if the low were strong, because it won't have such a push of warm air that we typically see when there is a strong storm over the Great Lakes. It also won't have much precipitation. For this reason, I don't really see a winter weather threat with this system. In addition, most of the precipitation will fall over Southwestern sections, where temperatures will probably be warm enough to support rain. The good news is that no matter what, if any precipitation does fall where temperatures are cold enough, it will probably be sleet or snow, rather than freezing rain. During the day on Thursday, some of this precipitation spreads further Northward into the rest of the state, as rain or a rain/sleet mix.
Another low pressure system will develop Thursday night well off the coast of Southern New Jersey. This low should also be very weak. Because of the position of this low, most of the precipitation will fall across Southern Connecticut, with the best chance near I 95 and East of I 91. Precipitation should be rain or a rain sleet mix, and mostly quite light.
Temperatures Thursday will reach 40-45 degrees for highs, so it will be a chilly and raw Thanksgiving, precipitation or not!
Longer Term- Thanksgiving Weekend: This weekend will be an unsettled mess, with various waves of mostly weak low pressure and temperatures mostly supporting rain, but occasionally cold enough cold enough for snow or sleet.
For Friday... For now, will run with a dry forecast for Friday, since one weak system will be ending, and the next one shouldn't arrive until late at night. So under a mostly cloudy sky, Friday's high temperatures should be fairly uniform across the state, with highs in the upper 40s.
Another weak system will approach for late Friday night into early Saturday morning, as a weak low pressure system will be over Lake Ontario, with a weak secondary low developing off Cape Hatteras. This time temperature profiles appear warm enough for just light rain, but just barely. Aside from a rogue shower, most of the day Saturday should be dry, with again, most of the precipitation falling early in the morning and late at night. If any showers come down heavy enough during the day on Saturday, the rain could mix with sleet or rime graupel, since the freezing level is relatively low. High temperatures on Saturday should be near or just above 50.
Yet another weak system will affect the state on Sunday. This one appears to be more of a daytime event. This is from the same storm that hit Saturday now becoming quite a bit stronger as it heads off the coast of Cape Cod and throwing a trough back. Models have been trending stronger with this feature. In addition, temperatures have trended colder and will continue to do so if the storm trends stronger, since the upper levels are cold enough. This one could be cold enough to support snow everywhere, and accumulations for the interior, IF it pans out. There is a lot of time to work this out and a small change in axis and strength of this trough could have big effects on our weather, so stay tuned! As for temperatures on Sunday, current progs have highs near or just below 50, but if this storm strengthens, you might want to take at least 10 degrees off that!
As we head into next week, Monday and Tuesday should feature fair weather, with high temperatures right around 50 both days, as high pressure builds in. The next system will approach Wednesday. For now, at least, this system looks to be stronger than the past systems and track into Lake Superior. This would bring warmer air into the region, so only rain would fall.
Looking into the longer range, a very active pattern looks to set up, with a sharp thermal gradient from north to south across the country, and a gradual trend toward cooler temperatures. As we head into a climatologically colder period of the year, in a pattern like this, events would tend to trend more snowy with time. Since the pattern is clearly getting more active, this may be something to watch!
Now, let's take a look at our weather coming up graphically. I'll show a map for Thanksgiving Day, which shows a little bit of both systems that will affect the area both days, and then a map of Sunday's potential, since right now, that seems like the most interesting in the slew of upcoming weak systems.
This map is valid noon on Thanksgiving Day. You can see that the precipitation distribution is a disorganized mess, as I described, with precipitation down in Southern New Jersey and points South, and more precipitation over Northern New England, but none implicitly over Connecticut at that hour.
You can see a lot on this map. First off, the system East of Massachusetts, is rotating precipitation westward into the state. The heavier precipitation over Rhode Island is getting ready to rotate into the eastern half of the state, probably east of I 91. The strong storm over Nebraska will be our next player a few days later, pumping rain and warmer air into the state.
That's all for now! Have a great rest of your week and a great Thanksgiving!
-GP!
That's all for now! Have a great rest of your week and a great Thanksgiving!
-GP!
