Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
The clocks have changed and there is a little more chill in the air as we start the month of November. Just a few weeks ago we were well above normal in temperatures.
First, setting expectations for November is important. It is a transition month, where sometimes winter wins--as we saw last year--and sometimes fall prevails.
For BDL (Hartford), on November 1st, the average high is 57 while the average low is 37. By the last day of November, the average high is 46, while the average low is 29. Today the sun set at 4:42pm. By the last day of the month, the sun will set at 4:21pm.
For Bridgeport, on November 1st, the average high is 58 while the average low is 42. By the last day of November, the average high is 48, while the average low is 34. Today the sun set at 4:45pm. By the last day of the month, the sun will set at 4:25pm.
Bottom line: November can be wintry, but that doesn't mean measurable snow is a guarantee or even likely.
The clocks have changed and there is a little more chill in the air as we start the month of November. Just a few weeks ago we were well above normal in temperatures.
First, setting expectations for November is important. It is a transition month, where sometimes winter wins--as we saw last year--and sometimes fall prevails.
For BDL (Hartford), on November 1st, the average high is 57 while the average low is 37. By the last day of November, the average high is 46, while the average low is 29. Today the sun set at 4:42pm. By the last day of the month, the sun will set at 4:21pm.
For Bridgeport, on November 1st, the average high is 58 while the average low is 42. By the last day of November, the average high is 48, while the average low is 34. Today the sun set at 4:45pm. By the last day of the month, the sun will set at 4:25pm.
Bottom line: November can be wintry, but that doesn't mean measurable snow is a guarantee or even likely.
GFS analysis of temperatures since Thursday. Note how the warmth has been brushed aside and much cooler temperature have arrived. This is just the beginning.
Monday
Tomorrow looks like another nice day. Conditions will be sunny and seasonably cool, just below normal for highs. It should be noted that the coastline has a frost advisory tonight. Virtually the rest of the state has seen two freezes at this point.
Tuesday-Wednesday
Tuesday, Election Day, is looking a little unsettled. It is likely to the the only day with temperatures above normal, but that only means temperatures in the upper 50s. Some of the guidance, including the more trusted European model, has been consistent in depicting the chance for showers during the afternoon as a weak cold front passes through. As a result, we should expect some showers around on Tuesday, particularly during the daylight hours. It does not look like a washout. Below is a NAM depiction of Tuesday's unsettled weather potential. Note, there isn't much to speak of in terms of showers, but I would have an umbrella handy.
Wednesday things clear out, and we get back to seasonably cool conditions. It should be a sunny day with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Monday
Tomorrow looks like another nice day. Conditions will be sunny and seasonably cool, just below normal for highs. It should be noted that the coastline has a frost advisory tonight. Virtually the rest of the state has seen two freezes at this point.
Tuesday-Wednesday
Tuesday, Election Day, is looking a little unsettled. It is likely to the the only day with temperatures above normal, but that only means temperatures in the upper 50s. Some of the guidance, including the more trusted European model, has been consistent in depicting the chance for showers during the afternoon as a weak cold front passes through. As a result, we should expect some showers around on Tuesday, particularly during the daylight hours. It does not look like a washout. Below is a NAM depiction of Tuesday's unsettled weather potential. Note, there isn't much to speak of in terms of showers, but I would have an umbrella handy.
Wednesday things clear out, and we get back to seasonably cool conditions. It should be a sunny day with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Thursday-Friday
GP alluded to it in his forecast a few days ago, and the signal for a period of wintry precipitation has continued to show itself. I am declaring this the first SCW Period of Interest of the "cold" season. For those new to SCW, a period of interest is a period where significant and/or impactful weather is possible.
This is a complicated forecast, and just because a model or group of models show snow today, that does not mean that will be the case tomorrow.
Here's what we do know right now: a major pattern change is likely by the end of the week, as very cold temperatures for this time of year are expected to pour into the country. Thursday looks seasonably cool, with temperatures hovering near 50, but the chill is expected to arrive Thursday night into Friday morning. Highs on Friday look to be in the 30s for most, which is well below normal. The same is the case for Saturday, and Sunday morning could have highs in the low 20s and maybe even the teens for some parts of the state!
But the bigger story may be the potential for a storm system to develop during this time. With cold air in place, this heightens the potential for wintry precipitation, especially away from the coast. There is still a lot that needs to be resolved, but some of the guidance, again including the European model, has been signaling that a significant storm develops Thursday night into Friday and brings accumulating snow.
We will of course continue to watch, as it could have an impact on Friday. This far out, I think it would be more in the hype department to show that European model image that has been circulating on social media. The potential is something to watch, but it could easily go poof. The cold is almost certainly coming, however.
GP alluded to it in his forecast a few days ago, and the signal for a period of wintry precipitation has continued to show itself. I am declaring this the first SCW Period of Interest of the "cold" season. For those new to SCW, a period of interest is a period where significant and/or impactful weather is possible.
This is a complicated forecast, and just because a model or group of models show snow today, that does not mean that will be the case tomorrow.
Here's what we do know right now: a major pattern change is likely by the end of the week, as very cold temperatures for this time of year are expected to pour into the country. Thursday looks seasonably cool, with temperatures hovering near 50, but the chill is expected to arrive Thursday night into Friday morning. Highs on Friday look to be in the 30s for most, which is well below normal. The same is the case for Saturday, and Sunday morning could have highs in the low 20s and maybe even the teens for some parts of the state!
But the bigger story may be the potential for a storm system to develop during this time. With cold air in place, this heightens the potential for wintry precipitation, especially away from the coast. There is still a lot that needs to be resolved, but some of the guidance, again including the European model, has been signaling that a significant storm develops Thursday night into Friday and brings accumulating snow.
We will of course continue to watch, as it could have an impact on Friday. This far out, I think it would be more in the hype department to show that European model image that has been circulating on social media. The potential is something to watch, but it could easily go poof. The cold is almost certainly coming, however.
The European ensembles forecast for the week, with regard to 850mb temperatures. We see big departures that signal a significant cold snap as we head into the weekend.
Saturday-Sunday
As mentioned above, Saturday and Sunday look cold. Temperatures are likely to rebound a bit on Sunday, but we will be watching to see if another cold intrusion...and perhaps more chances for first flakes...continue into the following week. Stay tuned for additional forecasts this week as we track our first potential winter weather threat of the season.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cool. Highs in the low to mid 50s.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 40%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cool. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Thursday: SCW Period of Interest. Increasing clouds with a rain/snow mix possible late. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of precipitation 30%.
Friday: SCW Period of Interest. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow inland and mixed precipitation/rain at the shoreline. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 30%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Saturday-Sunday
As mentioned above, Saturday and Sunday look cold. Temperatures are likely to rebound a bit on Sunday, but we will be watching to see if another cold intrusion...and perhaps more chances for first flakes...continue into the following week. Stay tuned for additional forecasts this week as we track our first potential winter weather threat of the season.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cool. Highs in the low to mid 50s.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 40%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cool. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Thursday: SCW Period of Interest. Increasing clouds with a rain/snow mix possible late. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of precipitation 30%.
Friday: SCW Period of Interest. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow inland and mixed precipitation/rain at the shoreline. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 30%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
