Currently: One cold front well offshore. A secondary cold front will pass thru this afternoon and evening, w/o much fanfare, other than gusty winds. There could be a brief sprinkle (or even flurry in the Hills) w/its passage, but any precip will be brief and light.
Tonight: If you have any plants outside, you may want to bring them in. I've gone way under temp guidance, as it overestimated temps today, and may be underestimating them tonight. Temps plunge to near 30 degrees, w/mid 20s possible in the northern corners of the state!
Tomorrow: Went pretty close to guidance, except undercut it a bit in the NW Hills. Sunny, windy, and chilly, w/high temps 50-55.
Tomorrow night/Fri: Tomorrow night prob ends up a deg or three warmer than tonight, so take that into account re:plants. For Fri, winds will stay up for one more day. Again, generally went close to guidance temps, but a bit below up north. Highs generally mid to upper 50s.
Long Term: The weekend is beautiful, w/o much wx to talk about. The picture gets more complicated as we get into next week.
For Sat, winds diminish to near calm. Guidance again looks pretty good, so followed closely, with highs generally near 60, but I did take guidance a few deg warmer near I 91, and went 60-65 there, w/downslope & urban heating.
For Sun, again guidance looks good and generally followed, w/a slight tweak upward in the I 91 corridor. Generally looking at highs in the mid to upper 60s.
For Mon, showers are possible all day, as a sys approaches. Warm front will approach the area, but never really get all that close. Looks like one of those days w/a decent shot of rain in the morn, then light rain/drizzle the balance of the day. Because the warm front will never make it through, and because of clouds and rain, I went under guidance temps, so look for highs only in the mid to upper 50s.
For Tue, prob a mostly cloudy day between sys. We don't really clear out, because the next sys is fast on the heels of the last one, but we don't really see any pcpn during the daylight hrs either. I went fairly close to guidance on temps, w/some tweaks for mesoscale effects. Highs generally in the mid to upper 60s.
We should get a shot of rain later Tue night, w/a lingering shower possible into Wed morn, then we clear out and it turns out to be a pretty nice day on Wed. Followed guidance real closely, just raised temps a bit near I 91. Highs in the mid 60s generally, but a few upper 60s along I 91.
The long range looks to see a very progressive pattern, overall. In terms of sensible wx, this means a few things. First, we don't get much of a chance to have a long, sustained warm up, since cold fronts will follow in quick succession and Bermuda ridges will not have much chance to get established. Secondly, it rains frequently, but no rain event lasts too long, since everything is moving so fast. Finally, depending on the exact track of each sys, we could see highly variable temps.
No graphics today, because no precip is expected until Day 5.
See you next week!