Disc: Today's storm is a continuation of a pattern that supports below normal temps and normal to above normal precip across the area.
Currently: Low pressure has developed about 150 mi E of Ocean City. MD. A cold front was over E PA. This combo will insure that the low will not really bomb out too much until it gets near Montauk. This means the heaviest precip will likely be over E CT.
Tonight: A rainy, turning colder, night. Over SW CT, most rain wraps up by midnight. However, over E CT, esp NE CT, rain continues all night. I went pretty close to guidance on temps, w/local adjustments here and there. Lows generally near 40 degrees, except 35-40 North of about I 84.
Tomorrow: For SW CT, generally mostly cloudy, w/a break or two of sun possible, and a possible stray sprinkle or flurry in the afternoon. Across NE CT, periods of rain, mixed with snow, with little or no accums possible. I carefully looked over NBM snow levels, and the consensus is 1500 feet. Now, that is generally the level for accumulating snow, not just seeing snowflakes. The upper levels support snow anywhere precip can fall heavy enough to bring some cold air down. If we take the NBM snow levels and assume they're trained that 32 deg is the magic snow line and assume it can accumulate on car tops and grass at 34 deg, then we can lower the snow level a bit. Even so, do not expect any accums below 1.000 feet (maybe 900 feet?) or so. In addition, any accums will be over the Tolland/Windham hills, not Litchifield, since there likely won;t be heavy enough precip in W CT for any accums. Temps are very tricky. Going a couple deg below guidance would yield upper 40s for most of the state, maybe even a rogue 50+ in Wrn areas that get sun. However, NE CT may not get out of the 30s! In addition, winds gusting to 30 MPH will make it feel very chilly!
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Conditions gradually improve everywhere. I'll still subtract a couple deg off guidance, given upper level temps look cold. So expect highs in the mid to upper 50s w/clearing skies.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): For Sun, I subtracted a good 3 to 5 deg off guidance. I cannot see how Sun is warmer than Sat, given a ULL will pass overhead w/increasing clouds and a slight chance of a shower in the afternoon. The ULL also means upper levels are cool, so another reason to not expect big warmth. Highs generally in the mid 50s, maybe a few upper 50s along I 91.
For Mon, I still think guidance looks a touch too warm, so I made a few adjustments. The upper levels do warm, but there will still be a ULL spinning overhead, so we cont a slight chance of showers in the afternoon hrs. High temps warm to around 60, except 60-65 along I 91.
For Tue, this is prob the pick of the week. We finally get the ULL out of the way and get high pressure to our W. This sets up a day filled with sun and a downsloping breeze. Because of this, I went a couple deg above guidance. Highs generally in the upper 60s, with the coolest readings along the S coast.
For Wed, I chopped about 5 deg off guidance for most locations. A fairly strong cold front will be moving thru. Guidance often struggles w/temps that many days out and Wed should be no exception. I have cut highs down to generally the low 60s, although some places in the NW hills may not get out of the upper 50s. Speaking of the cold front, it does not have tons of moisture to work with. However, the potency of the front alone warrants a slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
For Thu, upper levels turn impressively cold for the time of yr! The -5C line at 850 is progged to cross into SNJ! In addition, yet another ULL spins into the area. Therefore, there will be isolated to scattered showers Thu Afternoon, and the ptype will likely be snow or sleet! As for temps, I went with a few deg below guidance for highs, which would yield mid 50s, with a few upper 50s along I 91. Keep in mind, however, temps could be very tricky. It is not uncommon for temps to drop 15 deg in less than an hr in areas that get any of those showers in Apr w/upper levels so cold!
In the long range, as we head into the rest of Apr, I do not really see any big-time mechanisms for changing the overall hemispheric pattern and kicking us out of the regime of cool temps and unsettled wx, at least not for the next 10-15 days.
I am only going to post one graphic today, and it is valid for tomorrow. Since this storm is already ongoing, I just want to show the discrepancy one might see from SW CT to NE CT tomorrow. Taking a look at that map, look how dry it is in SW CT, where no precip is falling at all. Meanwhile N CT is seeing steady moderate pcpn!
Currently: Low pressure has developed about 150 mi E of Ocean City. MD. A cold front was over E PA. This combo will insure that the low will not really bomb out too much until it gets near Montauk. This means the heaviest precip will likely be over E CT.
Tonight: A rainy, turning colder, night. Over SW CT, most rain wraps up by midnight. However, over E CT, esp NE CT, rain continues all night. I went pretty close to guidance on temps, w/local adjustments here and there. Lows generally near 40 degrees, except 35-40 North of about I 84.
Tomorrow: For SW CT, generally mostly cloudy, w/a break or two of sun possible, and a possible stray sprinkle or flurry in the afternoon. Across NE CT, periods of rain, mixed with snow, with little or no accums possible. I carefully looked over NBM snow levels, and the consensus is 1500 feet. Now, that is generally the level for accumulating snow, not just seeing snowflakes. The upper levels support snow anywhere precip can fall heavy enough to bring some cold air down. If we take the NBM snow levels and assume they're trained that 32 deg is the magic snow line and assume it can accumulate on car tops and grass at 34 deg, then we can lower the snow level a bit. Even so, do not expect any accums below 1.000 feet (maybe 900 feet?) or so. In addition, any accums will be over the Tolland/Windham hills, not Litchifield, since there likely won;t be heavy enough precip in W CT for any accums. Temps are very tricky. Going a couple deg below guidance would yield upper 40s for most of the state, maybe even a rogue 50+ in Wrn areas that get sun. However, NE CT may not get out of the 30s! In addition, winds gusting to 30 MPH will make it feel very chilly!
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Conditions gradually improve everywhere. I'll still subtract a couple deg off guidance, given upper level temps look cold. So expect highs in the mid to upper 50s w/clearing skies.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): For Sun, I subtracted a good 3 to 5 deg off guidance. I cannot see how Sun is warmer than Sat, given a ULL will pass overhead w/increasing clouds and a slight chance of a shower in the afternoon. The ULL also means upper levels are cool, so another reason to not expect big warmth. Highs generally in the mid 50s, maybe a few upper 50s along I 91.
For Mon, I still think guidance looks a touch too warm, so I made a few adjustments. The upper levels do warm, but there will still be a ULL spinning overhead, so we cont a slight chance of showers in the afternoon hrs. High temps warm to around 60, except 60-65 along I 91.
For Tue, this is prob the pick of the week. We finally get the ULL out of the way and get high pressure to our W. This sets up a day filled with sun and a downsloping breeze. Because of this, I went a couple deg above guidance. Highs generally in the upper 60s, with the coolest readings along the S coast.
For Wed, I chopped about 5 deg off guidance for most locations. A fairly strong cold front will be moving thru. Guidance often struggles w/temps that many days out and Wed should be no exception. I have cut highs down to generally the low 60s, although some places in the NW hills may not get out of the upper 50s. Speaking of the cold front, it does not have tons of moisture to work with. However, the potency of the front alone warrants a slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
For Thu, upper levels turn impressively cold for the time of yr! The -5C line at 850 is progged to cross into SNJ! In addition, yet another ULL spins into the area. Therefore, there will be isolated to scattered showers Thu Afternoon, and the ptype will likely be snow or sleet! As for temps, I went with a few deg below guidance for highs, which would yield mid 50s, with a few upper 50s along I 91. Keep in mind, however, temps could be very tricky. It is not uncommon for temps to drop 15 deg in less than an hr in areas that get any of those showers in Apr w/upper levels so cold!
In the long range, as we head into the rest of Apr, I do not really see any big-time mechanisms for changing the overall hemispheric pattern and kicking us out of the regime of cool temps and unsettled wx, at least not for the next 10-15 days.
I am only going to post one graphic today, and it is valid for tomorrow. Since this storm is already ongoing, I just want to show the discrepancy one might see from SW CT to NE CT tomorrow. Taking a look at that map, look how dry it is in SW CT, where no precip is falling at all. Meanwhile N CT is seeing steady moderate pcpn!
Anyway, that's all for now! Enjoy the rest of your day and see you next week!
-GP!
-GP!
