Good afternoon and happy Saturday from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Today we’re providing you with a special double edition of SCW. This post will cover the week ahead, and the next post covers May climatology, the basics of severe weather, and severe weather in Connecticut. It will be a must read!
As a result, this will be a relatively quick post. After a period of very nice weather earlier this month, New England has reverted to cool, dark, and damp, as a trough battles for control over our region. This pattern looks to continue into the foreseeable future, with multiple rain and shower chances through the first week of May.
Saturday
Today is the pick of the weekend. Partly cloudy skies will dominate as high pressure sits overhead, and temperatures will be nice and comfortable in the mid to upper 60s. Get out and enjoy it. This is probably the best day you’ll see weather wise the entire forecast period.
Today we’re providing you with a special double edition of SCW. This post will cover the week ahead, and the next post covers May climatology, the basics of severe weather, and severe weather in Connecticut. It will be a must read!
As a result, this will be a relatively quick post. After a period of very nice weather earlier this month, New England has reverted to cool, dark, and damp, as a trough battles for control over our region. This pattern looks to continue into the foreseeable future, with multiple rain and shower chances through the first week of May.
Saturday
Today is the pick of the weekend. Partly cloudy skies will dominate as high pressure sits overhead, and temperatures will be nice and comfortable in the mid to upper 60s. Get out and enjoy it. This is probably the best day you’ll see weather wise the entire forecast period.
Current visible satellite loop of clouds over CT. Go enjoy while you can!
Sunday/Monday
Sunday is the first of the rainy days in this forecast period. Low pressure out west will send precipitation our way, and although it is unlikely we rain all day, it will be a raw, wet, and cold day with easterly winds that keep temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. Not a great day for activities.
Latest data suggests that the morning hours should be fine for activities, but the afternoon and evening hours don’t look great.
Sunday/Monday
Sunday is the first of the rainy days in this forecast period. Low pressure out west will send precipitation our way, and although it is unlikely we rain all day, it will be a raw, wet, and cold day with easterly winds that keep temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. Not a great day for activities.
Latest data suggests that the morning hours should be fine for activities, but the afternoon and evening hours don’t look great.
GFS showing the period between Sunday 1am and Monday 1am. The afternoon looks wet for sure, but I don’t think it is a total washout.
Monday is another wet day, but should be more showery than rainy as a warm front makes its way north. As a result, we likely get back to warmer temperatures, but shower chances remain.
Tuesday/Wednesday
Tuesday looks like the dry day of the week with low pressure departing, but Wednesday at this time looks like another day with the chance of showers as another system passes to our north and the attendant front makes an approach.
Thursday/Friday
The end of the weeks looks wet again as the dreaded cutoff low looks to setup somewhere in our vicinity. Neither day looks like a washout at this point, but there is potential. The european model in particular shows a strong coastal low making a run at the region Thursday night into Friday, but, like we said during the winter, one model run does not make a forecast.
Overall, we remain unsettled heading into the first week of May. With a trough developing over the region, a fast break toward more late spring weather and temperatures is off the table.
Monday is another wet day, but should be more showery than rainy as a warm front makes its way north. As a result, we likely get back to warmer temperatures, but shower chances remain.
Tuesday/Wednesday
Tuesday looks like the dry day of the week with low pressure departing, but Wednesday at this time looks like another day with the chance of showers as another system passes to our north and the attendant front makes an approach.
Thursday/Friday
The end of the weeks looks wet again as the dreaded cutoff low looks to setup somewhere in our vicinity. Neither day looks like a washout at this point, but there is potential. The european model in particular shows a strong coastal low making a run at the region Thursday night into Friday, but, like we said during the winter, one model run does not make a forecast.
Overall, we remain unsettled heading into the first week of May. With a trough developing over the region, a fast break toward more late spring weather and temperatures is off the table.
Euro ensembles showing a strong trough developing by the end of the week. Below is the EPS projection of 850mb temperatures. Expect cool and unsettled weather.
The dailies
Saturday: Partly sunny and nice! Highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy skies in the morning with rain beginning by noon. Rain off and on during the afternoon and evening. Seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain 90%
Monday: Chance of showers early, tapering off by noon. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 70% early.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy and warmer. Highs in the mid 60s.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 20%.
Thursday: Cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 50%
Friday: Cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 50%
Thanks for reading SCW and don’t forget to read the second edition on severe weather!
-DB
The dailies
Saturday: Partly sunny and nice! Highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy skies in the morning with rain beginning by noon. Rain off and on during the afternoon and evening. Seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain 90%
Monday: Chance of showers early, tapering off by noon. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 70% early.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy and warmer. Highs in the mid 60s.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 20%.
Thursday: Cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 50%
Friday: Cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 50%
Thanks for reading SCW and don’t forget to read the second edition on severe weather!
-DB
