Disc: Measurable rain will likely fall by Monday morning (although some places could get it earlier than that- we'll get to that in a bit), but this will end a two week plus stretch of no rain across the area. The pattern is likely to overall turn more active, w/more frequent storms and a theme of more frequent cold air intrusions.
Currently: Not much going on. High pressure over the Shenandoah Valley is protecting us from a few wx elements, including a cold front near the Canadian border and the remnants of Beta over the deep south. Moisture from Beta is responsible for the cloudiness tda, esp over the S coast.
Tonight: Varying amounts of clouds. Highest concentration of clouds is prob across the S coast. No pcpn xpctd anywhere. I went pretty close to guidance on temperatures, although I could see reasoning to go a degree or two warmer than guidance along the South coast, due to higher cloud cover. So I played around w/that a little bit. All in all, xpct low temps generally in the upper 50s, xcpt near 60 alg the S coast.
Tomorrow: Once again, and for the same reasons as today, there should be varying amounts of cloudiness, with the highest concentration along the south coast. Guidance is warm for tomorrow, and for now, I will play along. However, it is certainly possible that tmrw's guidance verifies too warm, esp if it's cloudier than fcst. For now, I'll cautiously call for high temps around 80 deg in the I 91 corridor to mid 70s alg the SE coast, w/most other places in the upper 70s.
Tomorrow night/Sat: Any moisture associated with the remnants of Beta will make its closest approach to the region this weekend. For now, I will not mention any precipitation in the fcst, as models that did have precipitation this far N have corrected a bit S. Hwvr, a lot of gdnc is close enough that this fcst could still wind up wrong. For now, though, I think all pcpn associated w/the remnants of Beta stays S of NYC, and possibly even S of there. Assuming my reasoning is correct, I'm going to go a couple degrees warmer than guidance temperatures and allow for some sun. This will allow for highs to reach the mid to upper 70s. OF course, if the pcpn and at least clouds get further N, these temps will likely be too warm.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): Unsettled weather will start the period. For now, based on model timings, I have elected to keep Sunday dry, although it is not impossible to think that showers could creep into the SW zones before the end of the day. In the interest of simplifying the forecast, however, I have kept the day part dry, with precipitation arriving after dark. Most of the state will only need slight chances with this anyway. Hwvr, Ern CT could see higher chances, and higher chances are being incorporated into the fcst for the SE coast, as oceanic enhancement occurs there. Because I expect more clouds than what models have, I went a few degrees below temperature guidance for Sunday. This yields high temps near 70, except low 70s in the I 91 corridor.
For Monday, as the front approaches, expect a chance of showers and thunderstorms at any point during the day. I don't want to get too cute with timing and chances, but for now, the highest chance continues to look to be E CT, esp SE coast, and then chances begin to increase everywhere later in the day and at night. As for temperatures, with timing being important, i.e. a pop-up storm in the middle of the day would hamper warming, I did not bother getting too cute with guidance numbers. So I went close to the guidance in calling for highs of 70-75 degrees.
For Tuesday, some of the latest arriving guidance shows the front stalling out, with bands of heavy rain developing along it. This is certainly meteorologically possible, as the battle between incoming cold air and the Atlantic ridge continues. So I have trended the fcst in that dir- calling for rain, heavy at times on Tue. Again, at this juncture, I don't want to go too crazy w/timing and heavy rain, but as of now, it looks like the heaviest rain will be later in the day. Hwvr, since rain can fall at any time during the day, I am not going to go crazy and confusing w/timing. Altho the entire state stands to get a potential good soaking, the heaviest rain looks to be W of I 91 this time. For now, given uncertainty in timing of waves of rain, I went close to guidance temperatures. However, if it turns out to be an all-day rain, these temps could be too warm. For now, I have highs genly in the low 70s in the fcst.
For Wed and Thu, these two days look to feature cooler and drier weather. There is a small chance, especially out east, that some showers linger into Wed morning, but for simplicity's sake, i decided to keep it dry for now. For temperatures, I went a few degrees below guidance on Wednesday, as models tend to struggle with temperatures in cold air advection, then closer to guidance for Thursday. Expect high temps in the upper 60s both days.
Looking into the longer range, I don't see anything out of the ordinary for the time of year. There does seem to be a good avail of cold air at the moment, so temps probably avg a bit below normal. There will also prob be a chc of brief showers every few days, with frontal passages.
Now let's take a look graphically at the cold frontal passage for Tuesday. Since that is really the "main event" for this pkg, I think that is the only graphic I am going to post at this time. Verbatim, some of that precipitation weakens before making it to us, but it still gives us a good soaking.
Currently: Not much going on. High pressure over the Shenandoah Valley is protecting us from a few wx elements, including a cold front near the Canadian border and the remnants of Beta over the deep south. Moisture from Beta is responsible for the cloudiness tda, esp over the S coast.
Tonight: Varying amounts of clouds. Highest concentration of clouds is prob across the S coast. No pcpn xpctd anywhere. I went pretty close to guidance on temperatures, although I could see reasoning to go a degree or two warmer than guidance along the South coast, due to higher cloud cover. So I played around w/that a little bit. All in all, xpct low temps generally in the upper 50s, xcpt near 60 alg the S coast.
Tomorrow: Once again, and for the same reasons as today, there should be varying amounts of cloudiness, with the highest concentration along the south coast. Guidance is warm for tomorrow, and for now, I will play along. However, it is certainly possible that tmrw's guidance verifies too warm, esp if it's cloudier than fcst. For now, I'll cautiously call for high temps around 80 deg in the I 91 corridor to mid 70s alg the SE coast, w/most other places in the upper 70s.
Tomorrow night/Sat: Any moisture associated with the remnants of Beta will make its closest approach to the region this weekend. For now, I will not mention any precipitation in the fcst, as models that did have precipitation this far N have corrected a bit S. Hwvr, a lot of gdnc is close enough that this fcst could still wind up wrong. For now, though, I think all pcpn associated w/the remnants of Beta stays S of NYC, and possibly even S of there. Assuming my reasoning is correct, I'm going to go a couple degrees warmer than guidance temperatures and allow for some sun. This will allow for highs to reach the mid to upper 70s. OF course, if the pcpn and at least clouds get further N, these temps will likely be too warm.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): Unsettled weather will start the period. For now, based on model timings, I have elected to keep Sunday dry, although it is not impossible to think that showers could creep into the SW zones before the end of the day. In the interest of simplifying the forecast, however, I have kept the day part dry, with precipitation arriving after dark. Most of the state will only need slight chances with this anyway. Hwvr, Ern CT could see higher chances, and higher chances are being incorporated into the fcst for the SE coast, as oceanic enhancement occurs there. Because I expect more clouds than what models have, I went a few degrees below temperature guidance for Sunday. This yields high temps near 70, except low 70s in the I 91 corridor.
For Monday, as the front approaches, expect a chance of showers and thunderstorms at any point during the day. I don't want to get too cute with timing and chances, but for now, the highest chance continues to look to be E CT, esp SE coast, and then chances begin to increase everywhere later in the day and at night. As for temperatures, with timing being important, i.e. a pop-up storm in the middle of the day would hamper warming, I did not bother getting too cute with guidance numbers. So I went close to the guidance in calling for highs of 70-75 degrees.
For Tuesday, some of the latest arriving guidance shows the front stalling out, with bands of heavy rain developing along it. This is certainly meteorologically possible, as the battle between incoming cold air and the Atlantic ridge continues. So I have trended the fcst in that dir- calling for rain, heavy at times on Tue. Again, at this juncture, I don't want to go too crazy w/timing and heavy rain, but as of now, it looks like the heaviest rain will be later in the day. Hwvr, since rain can fall at any time during the day, I am not going to go crazy and confusing w/timing. Altho the entire state stands to get a potential good soaking, the heaviest rain looks to be W of I 91 this time. For now, given uncertainty in timing of waves of rain, I went close to guidance temperatures. However, if it turns out to be an all-day rain, these temps could be too warm. For now, I have highs genly in the low 70s in the fcst.
For Wed and Thu, these two days look to feature cooler and drier weather. There is a small chance, especially out east, that some showers linger into Wed morning, but for simplicity's sake, i decided to keep it dry for now. For temperatures, I went a few degrees below guidance on Wednesday, as models tend to struggle with temperatures in cold air advection, then closer to guidance for Thursday. Expect high temps in the upper 60s both days.
Looking into the longer range, I don't see anything out of the ordinary for the time of year. There does seem to be a good avail of cold air at the moment, so temps probably avg a bit below normal. There will also prob be a chc of brief showers every few days, with frontal passages.
Now let's take a look graphically at the cold frontal passage for Tuesday. Since that is really the "main event" for this pkg, I think that is the only graphic I am going to post at this time. Verbatim, some of that precipitation weakens before making it to us, but it still gives us a good soaking.
Anyway, that's all for now! Take care and stay safe!
-GP!
-GP!
